Best Supporting Actor typically goes to an overdue industry veteran, which in this case is looking to be Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project.
Best Supporting Actor is a packed category at the Oscars this year and filled with industry favorite actors that all have narratives to break into the race. However, it seems like Willam Dafoe (The Florida Project) is going to be the one to beat. His subtle but heartfelt performance has won over raves from critics that astonish over the fact that he’s only been nominated twice at the Oscars in this category — Platoon and Shadow of the Vampire. And he’s the perfect fit for a winner of this category, which usually goes to a hard-working veteran character actor. He’s the one to beat.
Another veteran character actor in the running is Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). Though Frances McDormand is getting a lot of praise for her steely performance, Rockwell has become a standout from the cast. His bigoted cop role is the kind of villain that is often nominated in Best Supporting Actor, but more importantly, his character has an arc. And that’s one of redemption — though, the controversy around that redemption may work against him. Rockwell is well-regarded in the industry and a nomination could be seen as a career achievement award. Plus, his surprise win at the Golden Globes will certainly help raise his profile.
There are two supporting actors from Call Me By Your Name in contention, which is always a difficult call to make. It’s rare to get more than one nomination in an acting category at the Oscars and it hasn’t happened in this category since 1991 when Bugsy got two noms. However, the more likely candidate from Call Me By Your Name is Armie Hammer. He nabbed a Golden Globe nomination and has more screen time than his co-star Michael Stuhlbarg, who has arguably received more acclaim — mostly for his ending monologue — but has less screen time. It is troublesome that neither actor was nominated at the Golden Globes — neither was the cast. I think Hammer has enough buzz to push him through to an Oscar nomination, but the prospects of having both actors nominated is pretty much gone.
Check out our 2018 Oscar Predictions!
Current Predictions:
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
- Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other Contenders (in alphabetical order):
- Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name
- Ben Mendohlson, Darkest Hour
- Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
- Ray Romano, The Big Sick
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.