Supporting Actress in a Drama Series is going to be easy to predict the nominees, but the winner is going to be harder to guess

I think Supporting Actress in a Drama Series is going to be one of the easier categories to predict. Only one spot is opening up with Christina Hendricks (Mad Men) out and I think the other five are pretty strong to come back.

At the top of that list is Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black). Though I don’t think her show is really going to make an impact on the Emmys this year, Aduba is one element that I think will always hold on. She’s incredibly popular and is a strong representative for the show’s ensemble.

After her, Christine Baranski (The Good Wife) will definitely be back for her final turn in The Good Wife (though she’s coming back for her own show as Diane Lockhart). Further than that though, I think she can finally win. She has a really meaty role this season and it feels so odd to think she leaves the series without a single win.

From this point on we have to mainly piece together last year’s nominees with the potential new openings. I think of the two Game of Throne actresses, Lena Headey (Game of Thrones) is more likely to come back than Emilia Clarke (Games of Thrones). However, I think both are pretty solid to be nominated following the huge buzzed about season they’re coming out of. However, I think Headey had the stronger material this year and last year. This will make her very competitive for the win.

I think the last couple spots are going to be a toss-up between two previous nominees and two newcomers. Dame Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) was shockingly passed over for her co-star Joanne Froggatt. Though the final season received relatively good reviews, I don’t think that both are getting in. The smart money would be to go with Smith, but there was a reason Froggatt was nominated over Smith. While Smith is legendary, her role is one-note while Froggatt has some difficult dramatic material to tackle. I think she’s in.

So that leaves one last spot to be battles out between Smith and two newcomers. The first, Rhea Seahorn (Better Call Saul) has the power of her show behind her and the potential to be taken along in a nominations sweep. And while she has done great work that she’s being lauded for, Constance Zimmer (unREAL) is really the supporting player in this category that was the true breakout on her show.

Like with the last two spots in the comedy series category, it’s a fight between my head and my gut. My head says go with Seahorn, my gut with Zimmer. Also like comedy series, I’m going with my gut on this one. Plus, with the new ballot shake up, she’s going to be at the top of half the ballots.

Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black)
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)***
Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)
Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey)
Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)
Constance Zimmer (unREAL)

***Predicted winner