Despite the mess that is the 2019 Oscars, it is refreshing to have a season that feels unpredictable. Best Picture is still up in the air as is Best Supporting Actress while there is room for upsets in nearly every category. As a lifelong Oscar fan, it’s always more excited to not know who’s going to win come Sunday night.
Here are my predictions in ever category:
Best Picture
- BlacKkKlansman
- Black Panther — SAG
- Bohemian Rhapsody — Globe
- The Favourite
- Green Book — Globe, PGA
- Roma — BAFTA, DGA, Critics Choice
- A Star is Born
- Vice
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: Roma or Green Book
Should Win: Roma or Black Panther
I’m taking a big swing in this category. While BlacKkKlansman hasn’t won a major prize, it was nominated every where it needed to be. People love and respect Spike Lee. I think this is going to do really well on the preferential ballot. As long as Roma or Green Book don’t win on a first round then I think this is your Best Picture winner.
Best Actress
The nominees:
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
- Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Could Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Should Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Glenn Close will finally end her 37-year losing streak when she wins her first Oscar for The Wife. There is the *tiniest* chance that BAFTA winner Olivia Coleman wins for her performance Queen Ann in The Favourite.
Best Actor
The nominees:
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Could win: Christian Bale, Vice
Should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Although Christian Bale won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards for his performance as Dick Cheney in Vice, I think the real challenger to clear frontrunner Rami Malek is Bradley Cooper. For better or worse, he’s been in the news a lot and if voters want to award A Star is Born outside of Best Original Song, this would be the place to do it.
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
- Emma Stone, The Favourite
- Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Claire Foy, First Man
Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Could win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Should win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Should have been nominated: Cynthia Erivo, Bad Times at the El Royale
A lot of pundits have been comparing this race to 2015’s Supporting Actor race where Mark Rylance upset odds-on favorite Sylvester Stallone. Regina King has taken the same awards path as Stallone for her role in If Beale StreetCould Talk — winning the Globe and Critics Choice, but not being nominated by SAG and BAFTA.
If this scenario played out, then BAFTA winner Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) would be the Oscar winner. However, the big difference is that King is loved by the industry while Stallone has been plagued by stories of bad behavior. Plus, Weisz — a Brit herself — has never a BAFTA despite being an Oscar winner. I think King wins this by a hair — or should I say wig.
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
- Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
- Sam Rockwell, Vice
Will win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Could win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Should win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should have been nominated: Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
The acting category with the most room for an upset is Best Supporting Actor. Mahershala Ali has swept every single precursor — including the Globe and BAFTA, which he didn’t even win for Moonlight. However, Richard E. Grant has been working the campaign trail — on and offline.
Ali might seem like such a lock that voters go elsewhere or think that he won too recently.
Best Director
- Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
- Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
- Adam McKay, Vice
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Could win: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Should have been nominated: Ari Aster, Hereditary
There’s a small chance Spike Lee wins his much overdue Best Director Oscar for BlacKkKlansman, but this race is all but called for Alfonso Cuarón.
Best Original Screenplay
- Roma
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- First Reformed
- Vice
Will win: The Favourite
Could win: Green Book
Should win: The Favourite
Should have been nominated: Eighth Grade
After losing at the WGA Awards, the fate for Green Book seems to be sealed here. The Favourite should generate enough love with its 10 nominations to pull off a win here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- BlacKkKlansman
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- A Star is Born
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Will win: BlacKkKlansman
Could win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should have been nominated: Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me? winning at the WGA Awards has pushed above Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk in the “could win” category. It’s all for naught, though, as Spike Lee should finally win his first Oscar for BlacKkKlansman.