2020 Oscar Predictions — Best Picture

Best Picture at the 2020 Oscars is going to be one of the most competitive races of all time. Here are my predictions. 

? Updated December 14, 2019

See all my Oscar predictions here.
Full analysis of this category below ?

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After a tumultuous festival season, the Oscar race has finally coalesced around a few contenders. Remember, anywhere between five and ten movies could be nominated — a nominee needs to be listed at number one on at least 5% of the ballots — which means we have to look at movies with broad support. Here are the likely nominees:

• THREE SLOTS are going to be taken up by the frontrunners: Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, and Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. Of all the contenders, they are the safest for nominations.
• TWO SLOTS are reserved for the dark horse contenders: Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit and Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite. The former won the coveted Toronto International Film Festival People’s Choice Award and the latter is the most critically acclaimed movie of the year and won the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
• ONE SLOT is taken up by the Oscar-bait movie: Sam Mendes’ World War I thriller 1917. What can I say? The Academy can’t resist a war movie.

Since the rule change, we haven’t gotten less than or more than nine nominees. That means there are two or three slots left. Here’s who’s on the bubble:

• The most likely contender to take up a slot is Todd Phillips’ Joker. Joaquin Phoenix is the frontrunner for Best Actor and the movie landed surprise Best Picture and Director nominations at the Globes.
• The next—and probably last—slot is a toss-up between Greta Gerwig’s Little Women and Jay Roach’s Bombshell. The latter shockingly led the SAG nominations (if you exclude the Stunt category) while the former has floundered in the precursors. However, Little Women is better reviewed and Gerwig is coming off a triple nomination for 2017’s Lady Bird. It’ll likely break in her favor.
• If there’s another slot, it will be James Mangold’s Ford v Ferrari and Lulu Wang’s The Farewell.

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There’s still plenty of room for a surprise:

• The Two Popes nabbed surprise Best Motion Picture — Drama nomination at the Globes.
• Knives Out was nominated for three Golden Globes and is a massive box office hit.

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Hey! I’m Karl. You can find me on Twitter here. I’m also a Tomatometer-approved critic.

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