2020 Oscars Final Predictions

The 2020 Oscars are this Sunday, February 9th at 8pm on ABC. Here are predictions in every category.

This year, the Oscars have a chance to make history by awarding Best Picture to a foreign language film. Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite goes into the night with six nominations. However, Joker leads the night with eleven nominations while The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and 1917 all have ten.

Here’s who we think will win in each category.

Best Picture

Like that past few years, Best Picture is easily the most competitive category thanks to the preferential ballot and the lack of a clear frontrunner. Every nominee has something for and against it, but I think we’ve really coalesced around three potential winners: 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite. 

1917 had the early momentum with wins at the Golden Globes, PGA, and DGA. Then momentum swung towards Parasite with an upset at the SAG awards and big wins at the WGA awards and BAFTA (for Best Original Screenplay) and ACE Eddie Awards (for Best Editing).

This reminds me a lot of the La La Land vs. Moonlight race. La La Land felt preordained, but something told me that momentum was shifting towards Moonlight — I proudly called that race correctly. 

Will win: Parasite
Could win: 1917
Should win: Parasite
Should’ve been nominated: The Farewell

Best Director

One of the biggest locks of the night.

Will win: Sam Mendes, 1917
Could win: 1917
Should win: Parasite
Should’ve been nominated: Celine Sciama, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Best Actress

While the four acting races seem set, usually we see at least one upset. Renée Zellweger (Judy) is probably the most vulnerable frontrunner. She’s won before and is up against three contenders from Best Picture nominees. Usually, that would be a bigger deal, however Best Actress is a category where someone from a movie with few nominations could still win.

If she’s upset, Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) has the best chance. It’s her fourth nomination — she’s only 25! — and Little Women was clearly popular with the Academy. Still, I think Zellweger wins her second. 

Will win: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Could win: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Should win: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Should’ve been nominated: Lupita Nyong’o, Us

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Best Actor

After a disastrous Golden Globes speech, I thought Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) lost all momentum for the Oscars. However, after two stunning showings at the SAG Awards and BAFTAs, it’s all smooth sailing to his first Academy Award. 

Will win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Could win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Should win: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Should’ve been nominated: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

Best Supporting Actress

The two supporting races are often where industry veterans who haven’t won get their due — this year is no exception. Laura Dern (Marriage Story) has a clear path to her first Oscar. Plus, it’ll be a way to honor Marriage Story, which looks unlikely to win any other of its nominations. If there is an upset, Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) could win one of her two nominations this year here.

Will win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Could win: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Should win: Florence Pugh, Little Women
Should’ve been nominated: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

Best Supporting Actor

See above.

Will win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could win: Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Should win: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Should’ve been nominated: Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

Best Cinematography

After waiting 14 nominations before finally winning, legendary cinematographer Roger Deakins is on track to win his second Oscar for 1917.

Will win: 1917
Could win: Joker
Should win: The Lighthouse
Should’ve been nominated: Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Best Film Editing

After a surprising upset at the ACE Eddie Awards, this is Parasite‘s award to lose. Ford v Ferrari could upset as it has the flashiest editing of them all, but this will be a key indicator of a Parasite Best Picture win.

Will win: Parasite
Could win: Ford v Ferrari
Should win: Parasite
Should’ve been nominated: Apollo 11

Best Production Design

Another category that Parasite might go through in its march to Best Picture. It’s rare that a contemporary movie wins here, though La La Land did it a few years ago. However, Neon has been putting a lot of marketing muscle behind this particular category. Still, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the Art Directors Guild award for best Period Film, which most often lines up with this category. It has the edge here.

Will win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could win: Parasite
Should win: Parasite
Should’ve been nominated: Rocketman

Best Visual Effects

A surprisingly light category this year, Best Visual Effects has oscillated between visual spectacles and subtler fare (Ex Machina and last year’s winner First Man, for example). However, more often than not, when there’s Best Picture nominee nominated, it wins. Which means 1917 has the best chance.

Will win: 1917
Could win: The Irishman
Should win: The Lion King
Should’ve been nominated: Ad Astra

Best Original Score

As much as it pains me that Thomas Newman loses another Oscars, the love for Hildur Guðnadóttir’s Joker score is too great. With a Golden Globe and BAFTA under her belt, it’s her’s to lose.

Will win: Joker
Could win: 1917
Should win: 1917
Should’ve been nominated: Uncut Gems

Best Original Song

Elton John and Bernie Taupin will get to accept just their second award together *ever* when they easily win for “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman.

Will win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
Could win: “Stand Up” from Harriet

Best Animated Feature

This is one of the most competitive years for Best Animated Feature ever. Usually, there’s an easy pick — and usually, it’s the Pixar movie. However, every precursor has gone a different way. I’m still going to go with Toy Story 4, but don’t be surprised if it’s BAFTA winner Klaus.

Will win: Toy Story 4
Could win: Klaus
Should win: I Lost My Body