“Let it Go” from Disney’s Frozen is the undisputed frontrunner for Best Original Song.
Before I give you my predictions for Best Original Song, I have to give a startling statistic. In the last ten years, the winner of the Golden Globe for Best Original Song only repeated at the Oscars once. The last time it occurred was in 2009 when “The Weary Kind” from Crazy Heart won over both award shows.
That being said, this essentially makes “Let it Go” from Frozen the frontrunner. In addition to its loss at the Golden Globes (which is a positive here), it also is honestly the best song of the bunch.
I do think that “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom has a chance. Like I said, the winner of the Golden Globe has won over the Oscars before, however it tends to be the song that is a clear frontrunner (“My Heart Will Go On”, “Into the West”) and I don’t believe “Ordinary Love” has that luxury. It does have the power of its writers U2 behind it, but that is often not a factor.
Check out my predictions below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: “Let it Go” from Frozen Could Win: “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom Should Win:“Let it Go” from Frozen Should Have Been Nominated: “Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby
“American Hustle” vs. “Her”: This is the race that is shaping up in the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay is probably one of my favorite above the line categories at the Oscars. Screenwriters have the hardest, but most gratifying jobs in the entertainment industry. This years, there have been some fantastic original movies this year, and honestly any of the nominees this year would be deserving, but whether they will win is another question.
I think in the lead is a Spike Jonze for Her. It has a few things going for it, but first and foremost it is one of the two nominees that is wholly original (the other being Bob Nelson for Nebraska). He has also consistently been winning different critics’ groups award including the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice awards. I also think that it is wholly unique from anything that has been nominated before. Romances are no strangers to this category (Before Sunset, the prequel to current nominee Before Midnight, was nominated in this category), however none have commented on society like Spike Jonze did in Her. It is also probably the one category that voters would feel comfortable awarding the film.
However, right on their tail is Eric Singer and David O. Russell for American Hustle. The film is one of the three frontrunners for Best Picture. It also helps that the Academy has quite the love affair with David O. Russell, who has been nominated in Best Director three times and nominated last year in Adapted Screenplay for Silver Linings Playbook. Although the film has a good chance in other categories, voters may decide that this is where they should award the film if it fails to win (Picture, Director, Actress, or Supporting Actress, where I have the film in second place).
Although I’m pretty certain that one of the two above films will win, there is room for Bob Nelson for Nebraskato potentially upset. He has created such a charming screenplay with great characters. If Gravity is a director’s film, then Nebraska is a writers film. Woody Allen was a factor when nominations first came out, but the Academy would not want to hand him an Oscar amidst the recent controversy concerning Dylan Farrow.
Check out my predictions below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Spike Jonze, Her Could Win: Eric Singer & David O. Russell, American Hustle Should Win: Spike Jonze, Her Should Have been Nominated: Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Cate Blanchett holds a commanding lead in the Best Actress race, however Amy Adams has a chance to spoil.
Other than Jared Leto in Best Supporting Actor, I think this is the only other category that is essentially a lock. Cate Blanchett (whose role in Blue Jasmine has been compared to the role of Blanche DuBois in A Streetcar Named Desire) has lost just four awards this season. That includes her 38 nominations in different critics groups around the nation.
Although she won an Oscar relatively recently, at least by Academy standards, it was in the Supporting category. Many Academy members may want to award the actress in the more prestigious Best Actress category. It also helps that her role in Blue Jasmine is probably one of the more complex of the year. She plays in two different points in her life, before and after her husband goes to jail. In one she is an uptight upper east sider, while in the other she is an alcoholic delusional divorcee.
There are two people that I could see beating her here. Amy Adams landed a surprise (to some people) nomination, which could mean a large amount of support. Now I know she missed out on a Screen Actors Guild nomination, which is essential to taking the top prize, but she is well liked in the Academy (she received 5 nominations in 8 years). In addition, she gives a very emotional performance, probably the best of the film’s ensemble. She is definitely in this.
The other is Sandra Bullock. I think that she has the sweep factor in her favor. If voters decide to give “Gravity” six or seven awards, why not Bullock?
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine” Could Win: Amy Adams, “American Hustle” Should Win: Sandra Bullock, “Gravity” Should have been Nominated: Brie Larson, “Short Term 12”
While Barkhad Abdi and Michael Fassbender are potential spoilers, Jared Leto is pretty far ahead in the race.
Best Supporting Actor is one of the major categories that I would consider a lock. Jared Leto‘s transformative role in Dallas Buyers Club is emotional, funny, flashy, and heartbreaking. It’s almost a tailor made Oscar performance. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s nearly swept all the precursor awards.
If there was a spoiler in this race it would be Michael Fassbender. His role as one of the ruthless slave owners in 12 Years a Slave is one of the best of the year. If 12 Years a Slave sweeps the night, he could be taken along for the ride.
The only other actor I could see possibly winning here is Barkhad Abdi. With Tom Hanks out of the way, he is the only acting nomination for Captain Phillips, if the Academy feels a need to award the film it could be here. He also has the benefit of having a good story to go along with his role. He worked as a limo driver in Minneapolis when he went into audition with a myriad of other actors. When he won the role it was his first acting role ever. The industry likes him, and that’s half the battle.
Check out our rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club” Could Win: Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips” Should Win: Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave” Should have been nominated: Daniel Brühl, “Rush”
While Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence are the frontrunners for Best Supporting Actress, June Squibb is a potential spoiler.
Like the rest of the categories this year, Best Supporting Actress is incredibly competitive. You can make an argument for all 5 of the acting nominees. Yes, even Sally Hawkins.
In the lead is Lupita Nyong’o. While Jennifer Lawrence did take the Golden Globe, it was no surprise. We knew that the Hollywood Foreign Press would award the it-girl of Hollywood, who also happens to be a complete bombshell. However, it was Lupita Nyong’o who was consistently swept the critics awards and recently won the Critics’ Choice Award last night. You can tell by the reaction to her win that the performance was well-liked from the industry. What nearly seals the deal for her is her Screen Actors Guild Award win, which shows support within the actors branch.
Her biggest competition is last year’s Oscar winner for Best Actress, Jennifer Lawrence. American Hustle looks like 12 Years a Slave’s biggest competition for Best Picture. She also benefits from the fact that her film has nominations in all 4 acting categories. Whenever this occurs, at least one actor wins in their category. With it unlikely that the men will win and Amy Adams in a spoiler position, it looks as if Jennifer Lawrence may be that one acting win. Not to mention she is the scene stealer of her film.
I think June Squibbhas a much stronger chance than many others think. She plays the typical sassy one-liner role that tends to win in this category. Octavia Spencer, Melissa Leo, and Penélope Cruz are just a few of the recent winners to fit that bill. She is also a place to honor “Nebraska. If there is a spoiler in this category it is definitely her.
The one factor that is a complete wild card is Sally Hawkins. Most Oscar pundits have her in last place, but when the results of some voters’ ballots were released she led by a significant margin and I can see why. She gives the best performance in the category. A lesser actress may have been drowned out by Cate Blanchett, but she has such presence in the film that even when she is just in the background you are aware of her presence. It should also be noted that if “Blue Jasmine” is an update of “A Street Car Named Desire”, then Hawkins role, which is the Stella character, has already won an Oscar for Kim Hunter.
Check out my ranking below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: June Squibb, Nebraska Could Win: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave” Should Win: Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine” Should have been nominated: Octavia Spencer, “Fruitvale Station”
Leonardo DiCaprio, Bruce Dern, Matthew McConaughey, and Chiwetel Ejiofor all have a chance at the Oscar.
I’m calling that Best Actor is the most competitive category of the year. In any other year I would have been delighted by Christian Bale’s nomination, but this year with the amount of talent I’m a little disappointed that he was nominated.
Also, in any other year, any of the other four actors nominated could have won and I would be happy, but this year they have made one of the most competitive categories in years.
There is honestly no indication of a winner. I know that it seems that Matthew McConaughey is in the lead and he won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice, but I honestly just can’t see Oscar voters rallying behind him.
Chiwetel Ejiofor nearly dominated the early critics’ awards and won the BAFTA, but 12 Years a Slave doesn’t have the wide spread support anymore. I think that the movie has to be solidly in the lead for Best Picture for him to win.
Although “comedy” performances tend not to well here, Leonardo DiCaprio has quickly become one of Oscars biggest losers. He won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice for Best Comedy Actor, but it doesn’t feel like there is an urgency to award him.
Lastly, there is the apple in a bunch of oranges. Bruce Dern is the veteran of the bunch, who delivers a quiet, but sweet performance. I think this leads me to believe he can take it. He didn’t do well in the precursors, but he was always there, always nominated. He has also led a strong campaign.
UPDATE 2/17: This category is a shot in the dark. Right now, I think that shot is going to land on Dern, but I’m going to change that prediction a few more times from now till Oscar night.
UPDATE 2/27: I’m actually switching over to DiCaprio and I’m going to stay put there till Oscar night. Wishful thinking or an accurate hunch? I have no clue.
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street Could Win: Literally anyone except Christian Bale Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street (That was a bravura performance. If it was any other actor in the role it would have ended up being caricature, but he grounded it.) Should Have been Nominated: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Like their films, Alfonso Cuarón, David O. Russell, and Steve McQueen are the frontrunners for Best Director.
This race is locked up. It’s locked up to that point that I am actually using it as part of my argument for Best Picture.
Alfonso Cuarón hasn’t lost a single race in his march to Oscar glory. It makes sense seeing as he made use of every single minute of screen time. Each shot was so well calculated and packed with meaning. It is really a director’s film.
Had “12 Years a Slave” maintained the strength it had earlier in the race, then Steve McQueen would have a chance, but without a DGA win his chances have pretty much been skunked.
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity Could Win: N/A Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity Should have been Nominated: Spike Jonze, Her
“American Hustle”, “12 Years a Slave”, and “Gravity” lead the Best Picture race.
***UPDATED 2/16
A lot has changed since the Oscar nominations came out a month ago. First, and probably most importantly, “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” tied for the PGA, which thrust “Gravity” back into contention. Second, “12 Years a Slave” won the BAFTA. Third, “Gravity” has pretty much dominated all the craft guild awards.
“American Hustle” looks like it’s in trouble. There has been a bit of a backlash. There has been a group of critics who have called its praise premature and that upon a second look it is completely overrated.
What we also have to look at is the fact that a split between Director and Picture is rare. When it does happen it is always a surprise (“Brokeback Mountain” takes director, “Crash” takes picture. “The Pianist” takes director, “Chicago” takes picture.) Although there have been times that it was expected, like Steven Soderbergh for “Traffic” it has been pretty consistent. So does this mean “Gravity” will win.
There is also the fact that it is going to sweep around 6-7 awards. When there is a sweep it is rare that the film doesn’t also win Best Picture. “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” for example won all 11 of its races, “Titanic” won 11 awards, “The Hurt Locker” won 6, “Shakespeare in Love” won 7. So in short, Gravity is the frontrunner.
UPDATE 2/27: Will the Academy really award a CGI driven, space oriented film starring a woman? I’m not so confident anymore. My FINAL PREDICTION is for “12 Years a Slave”
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: “12 Years a Slave” Could Win: “Gravity” Should Win: “12 Years a Slave” or “Her” or “Nebraska” or “Gravity” (This was a good year…) Should have been nominated: Dream Choice: “Short Term 12”; Practical Choice: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Inside Llewyn Davis” was almost completely shut out, but “Philomena” surprised. Jonah Hill also receives hi second career nominations.
So the Academy Award nominations were announced this morning and as usual they were filled snubs and surprises. So read on below to see our reactions and check out the complete list of nominations here!
SNUBS
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler: Early on in the season Oprah seemed like she was a lock to win Best Supporting Actress but she, along with her film, was completely snubbed for any nominations. I’m sure she is crying into her stacks of money.
Daniel Brühl, Rush: This is a snub that hurt a lot. I thought his performance in Rush was one of the best of the year. His buzz waned in the midseason, but he ended up being nominated for a Golden Globe and more shockingly a SAG award, but the Oscars stopped his formula one racing car.
Spike Jonze, Her:The Best Director race was pretty competitive this year, but after he and his film gained considerable buzz from early awards, I though he would sneak in, but you should never question a household name like Scorsese.
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks: I was sure that Amy Adams was going to get into this category at the expense of another actress that was seen as safe, but I didn’t think it would be Emma Thompson, apparently the Academy doesn’t like Disney too much.
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banksand Captain Phillips: The snub for the former film is not as shocking, he was essentially left off all precursor awards, but he seemed pretty safe for Captain Phillips. Looks like Tom Hanks has lost his luster with the Academy.
Inside Llewyn Davis: I thought this was one of the best films of the year (you can look at my rankings here.) It was on shaky ground in Best Picture, but I still expected it to be nominated. I think the biggest surprise is that it was left our of the Best Original Screenplay race. The film did end up receiving 2 nominations for Sound Mixing and Cinematography.
Monsters University: Although it had a mixed reception, it had Pixar backing its campaign and you should never vote against Pixar. Looks like they have to sit this year out.
Stories We Tell and Blackfish: I know Best Documentary is unpredictable, but when two of your locks get snubbed, then you have to pay attention. Both film seemed to be on solid footing, but my surprise pick, Cutie and the Boxer did make it in.
“Young and Beautiful,” The Great Gatsby: This is one of the best songs produced from a motion picture this year. It’s a shame, just a shame.
SURPRISES
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street: As a friend of mine said: “Who would have thought the kid from Superbad would get two Oscar nominations?” It was a shock, but it looks like The Wolf of Wall Street has more support than we thought.
Dallas Buyers Club: We expected that it would do well in nominations, but 6 is shocking. Leto, McConaughey, and their nomination for Picture weren’t at all surprising, but for them to receive an additional 3 nominations, including one for Film Editing, puts them in this race.
Christian Bale, American Hustle: He is one of the best actors of this century, there is no doubting that, but for him to sneak in at the expense of Robert Redford and Tom Hanks is something you can’t deny. Sadly his hairpiece in the film was snubbed.
Philomena: People were underestimating the film, but for it to pull off a Best Picture nomination in addition to 4 other nominations was something to marvel at. I can’t believe that this film snuck in, in place of Inside Llewyn Davis, but it was a crowd pleaser.
Nomination Totals: However, one of the bigger shocks of the day are the total number of nominations. Many expected 12 Years a Slave and Gravity to lead the nominations, but it was American Hustle and Gravity. This could spell disaster for the Best Picture frontrunner, American Hustle is biting at their tail.
For the second year in a row, David O. Russell was able to get nominations in all 4 acting categories. The Academy obviously loves him.
What surprised you in the nominations this morning?
Chiwetel Ejiofor guides “12 Years a Slave” with a strong, adroit performance.
The first time I went to watch 12 Years a Slave it was at the height of its acclaim, buzz, and frontrunner status for the Oscars. There were so many expectations for the film and that may have clouded my original judgement, however this time the buzz has died down and I am now able to unbiasedly review the film.
Steve McQueen is a director that I have been keeping an eye on. After he released Shame, his second feature length film, in 2011 I realized that he was different than many of the other directors of this time. He is a brutal storyteller. There is an unflinching nature to his films. He makes moves to make you feel uncomfortable, but at the same time maintains the beauty of cinema.
The same can be said for his film debut Hunger and 12 Years a Slave. He is unflinching. The film tells the story of Solomon Northup, a free African-American man and accomplished violinist who is kidnapped and taken into slavery.
Throughout his nightmare he encounters allies and enemies who create an amazing ensemble cast. Michael Fassbender plays Edwin Epps, who is one of the men who becomes an owner of Northup. His performance is the most complex of the cast. His character development runs so deep that you would think he was the main character. He is cruel, and even sadistic in some instances, but there is humanity left in him and Fassbender portrays that with a masterfully crafted performance.
Lupita Nyong’o has been receiving incredible buzz for her performance as a slave named Patsey, who often confides in Solomon. Her performance is heartbreaking and raw and whenever she is on screen your eyes are on her. She has been receiving several well-deserved accolades for her performance, but two other actresses in the film compete with her for the spotlight.
The first is Sarah Paulson as the wife Fassbender’s Epps. She is as cruel as her husband, however unlike her husband she has lost her humanity. Paulson is unflinching in her portrayal. She performs with an icy expression on her face and never breaks.
The other is Alfre Woodard. She has a short, but impactful, scene as a former slave who eventually married her master. She has fallen into a lifestyle of royalty and has begun to forgot who she was. She looks back on her life at what she did and how she got to her current position and regrets nothing, which is heartbreaking in itself.
Despite the strong supporting cast it is still Chiwetel Ejiofor, who plays our hero Solomon Northup, who steals the show. He does something that not many actors are able to do without it being explicitly said in the script. And that is giving the audience hope. He plays the character with a strength and will, which transcends the words that are spoken on the film. He makes you want to continue watching.
Speaking of the script, it is one of the greatest adaptations to screen that I have ever had the honor to experience. Now I have not read the book that the film is based off, however I do know that it never provides as much emotional depth that this film does. It is poetic. There is no other way to describe it except pure poetry.
The film itself is beautiful. Each shot is pure artwork. Each note of music is pure emotion. Every cut is perfectly pieced together. Steve McQueen has assembled something that is great. It is an epic in scope, but a character study at its heart. It explores loss, grief, strength, and of course hope. The film is hard to stomach for its pure physical brutality, but the emotional toll is much worse. However, once you get past that you realize that this is a film that deserves to be watched, appreciated, and remembered.
