Tag: 2020 Oscars

  • ‘Parasite’ and the changing Oscars

    ‘Parasite’ and the changing Oscars

    The final Oscars ceremony of the 2010s has wrapped up and it was one of the most, if not the most, exciting conclusions to an awards season ever.

    Parasite made Oscars history as the first film not in English to win Best Picture and the first South Korean film to win Best International Feature — it was also the first nominee. Not only that, Bong Joon-ho upset heavily favored frontrunner Sam Mendes for 1917 in Best Director and took home Best Original Screenplay‚ the first foreign-language film to win since Talk to Her seventeen years ago. 

    Reader, when I tell you I screamed. I might have scared my neighbors.

    However, you have to consider the biggest context for last night’s Oscars. It is perhaps the largest step forward for the Academy and possibly a glimpse at the next decade of awards. Parasite’s historic win was at the expense of a type of movie we’ve all come to know as an “Oscar movie.” 1917 had everything going for it on paper. It was a technically-stunning war epic from a major studio directed by an industry veteran and Oscar winner himself. However, in the weeks before the ceremony, you could feel the momentum shifting, beginning with the Parasite actors’ upset at the Screen Actors Guild awards. 

    Barely avoiding #OscarsSoWhite

    Bong Joon-ho's Parasite wins Best Picture at the Oscars
    Jane Fonda present Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite with the Oscar for Best Picture.

    However, that win also shows us that the Academy isn’t completely ready for change. Even though the film won Best Cast in a Motion Picture, none of the actors received individual nominations. Instead, save for Cynthia Ervio’s nomination in Best Actress for Harriet, all the acting nominees were white. This throws back to 2014 and 2015 when the #OscarsSoWhite controversy began. And while the Academy technically avoided that, Parasite was the only Best Picture nominee that showed any semblance of diversity. 

    Along with last year’s awards, it’s clear that as much as the Oscars are moving forward, there’s still a dying gasp of the old ways. Green Book, a regressive look at race in America, was last year’s Best Picture winner. On the other hand, Regina King won Best Supporting Actress for her sensitive portrayal of a black mother and Olivia Colman won Best Actress for a dark comedy playing the closeted queen of England. You could say we’re moving forward in fits and starts. 

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    How did Parasite pull it off?

    We were left for the final moments of the ceremony to actually have some excitement in terms of winners. Every category went to either the frontrunner or runner-up. And just like in 2017, all four acting winners swept every single award. However, this could have been a symptom of the shortened season — we had about a month less for voting this year. Less time means fewer movies seen which means more of the same winners. 

    Still, just like 2016 when Moonlight upset La La Land, which almost had the same configuration of precursor wins as 1917, Parasite began to surge at just the right time by building momentum throughout the season rather than starting big like 1917 — which nabbed two surprise Golden Globe wins — and fizzling out.

    Bong Joon-ho Oscars
    Bong Joon-ho won three Oscars for his film Parasite including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay.

    However, what’s more important to note is that Parasite likely would have won without the preferential ballot. The reason the Oscars switched to a ranked-choice voting system was an effort to award consensus rather than passion. Arguably, this is how Spotlight, Moonlight, The Shape of Water, and Green Book won their respective years. But with the all-out sweep that Parasite had, it feels more likely that it won in the first round with the most number one votes. 

    Does this mean that the preferential ballot is doing its job? 

    There’s been a lot of skepticism about how Best Picture is voted on, but the results from this decade are kind of undeniable. We’ve had some blips along the way — Green Book, Argo, and The King’s Speech most notably. However, it’s also led to some braver picks, as well. Only time will tell if this pattern holds.

    Laura Dern Oscars
    Laura Dern won her first Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story.

    The slow to progress categories

    We’re still waiting to see just how much diversifying the Academy voter base can change the winners. After all, the four acting winners were all veterans largely giving Oscar-y performances. Even more, the nominees were also less than inspired with easy interesting picks like Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers, Awkwafina and Zhao Shuhzen for The Farewell, and Lupita Nyong’g for Us being left out.

    Even looking at the tech nominations, it’s clear that we’ve regressed slightly. Last year, Best Cinematography had three foreign language nominations, two of which were in black and white. This could be again caused by the shortened season. Only time will tell.

    Streaming remains taboo

    Netflix came into the night with two Best Picture nominations — Marriage Story and The Irishman with a combined 16 nominations, two Best Animated Feature nominations, two Best Documentary nominations and went home with just two.

    After Roma‘s surprise loss last year and The Irishman‘s complete shutout, it’s not premature to say that it seems like the Oscars, unlike the Emmys, are less inclined to accept streaming services into their circle.

    What does it all mean?

    So, what has this decade at the Oscars taught us? Change is hard. Change is slow. But change is coming. In the 92 year history of the Academy Awards a non-English language film has never won Best Picture. One just did. A few years ago a movie with a gay main character never won Best Picture. Then, Moonlight did.

    There is so much history to make. However, for one night, I was hopeful it could be.

  • 2020 Oscars Final Predictions

    2020 Oscars Final Predictions

    The 2020 Oscars are this Sunday, February 9th at 8pm on ABC. Here are predictions in every category.

    This year, the Oscars have a chance to make history by awarding Best Picture to a foreign language film. Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite goes into the night with six nominations. However, Joker leads the night with eleven nominations while The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and 1917 all have ten.

    Here’s who we think will win in each category.

    Best Picture

    Parasite Oscars
    Parasite could make history as the first film not in English to win Best Picture. However, it faces strong competition from 1917.

    Like that past few years, Best Picture is easily the most competitive category thanks to the preferential ballot and the lack of a clear frontrunner. Every nominee has something for and against it, but I think we’ve really coalesced around three potential winners: 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite

    1917 had the early momentum with wins at the Golden Globes, PGA, and DGA. Then momentum swung towards Parasite with an upset at the SAG awards and big wins at the WGA awards and BAFTA (for Best Original Screenplay) and ACE Eddie Awards (for Best Editing).

    This reminds me a lot of the La La Land vs. Moonlight race. La La Land felt preordained, but something told me that momentum was shifting towards Moonlight — I proudly called that race correctly. 

    Will win: Parasite
    Could win: 1917
    Should win: Parasite
    Should’ve been nominated: The Farewell

    Best Director

    One of the biggest locks of the night.

    Will win: Sam Mendes, 1917
    Could win: 1917
    Should win: Parasite
    Should’ve been nominated: Celine Sciama, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

    Best Actress

    While the four acting races seem set, usually we see at least one upset. Renée Zellweger (Judy) is probably the most vulnerable frontrunner. She’s won before and is up against three contenders from Best Picture nominees. Usually, that would be a bigger deal, however Best Actress is a category where someone from a movie with few nominations could still win.

    If she’s upset, Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) has the best chance. It’s her fourth nomination — she’s only 25! — and Little Women was clearly popular with the Academy. Still, I think Zellweger wins her second. 

    Will win: Renée Zellweger, Judy
    Could win: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
    Should win: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
    Should’ve been nominated: Lupita Nyong’o, Us

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    Best Actor

    Joker Oscars
    Joaquin Phoenix is on track to win his first Academy Awards. He’s been nominated for Oscars for Gladiator and The Master.

    After a disastrous Golden Globes speech, I thought Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) lost all momentum for the Oscars. However, after two stunning showings at the SAG Awards and BAFTAs, it’s all smooth sailing to his first Academy Award. 

    Will win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
    Could win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
    Should win: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
    Should’ve been nominated: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

    Best Supporting Actress

    Marriage Story Oscars
    Laura Dern could finally win her first Oscar for Marriage Story, likely the only winner for the six time nominee.

    The two supporting races are often where industry veterans who haven’t won get their due — this year is no exception. Laura Dern (Marriage Story) has a clear path to her first Oscar. Plus, it’ll be a way to honor Marriage Story, which looks unlikely to win any other of its nominations. If there is an upset, Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) could win one of her two nominations this year here.

    Will win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
    Could win: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
    Should win: Florence Pugh, Little Women
    Should’ve been nominated: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

    Best Supporting Actor

    See above.

    Will win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Could win: Joe Pesci, The Irishman
    Should win: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    Should’ve been nominated: Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

    Best Original Screenplay

    Will win: Parasite
    Could win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Should win: Knives Out
    Should’ve been nominated: The Farewell

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Will win: Jojo Rabbit
    Could win: Little Women
    Should win: Little Women
    Should’ve been nominated: Avengers: Endgame

    Best Cinematography

    1917

    After waiting 14 nominations before finally winning, legendary cinematographer Roger Deakins is on track to win his second Oscar for 1917.

    Will win: 1917
    Could win: Joker
    Should win: The Lighthouse
    Should’ve been nominated: Portrait of a Lady on Fire

    Best Film Editing

    After a surprising upset at the ACE Eddie Awards, this is Parasite‘s award to lose. Ford v Ferrari could upset as it has the flashiest editing of them all, but this will be a key indicator of a Parasite Best Picture win.

    Will win: Parasite
    Could win: Ford v Ferrari
    Should win: Parasite
    Should’ve been nominated: Apollo 11

    Best Production Design

    Another category that Parasite might go through in its march to Best Picture. It’s rare that a contemporary movie wins here, though La La Land did it a few years ago. However, Neon has been putting a lot of marketing muscle behind this particular category. Still, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the Art Directors Guild award for best Period Film, which most often lines up with this category. It has the edge here.

    Will win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Could win: Parasite
    Should win: Parasite
    Should’ve been nominated: Rocketman

    Best Costume Design

    Will win: Little Women
    Could win: Jojo Rabbit
    Should win: Little Women
    Should’ve been nominated: Knives Out

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Will win: Bombshell
    Could win: Joker
    Should win: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

    Best Visual Effects

    The Lion King
    James Earl Jones as Mufasa and JD McCrary as Young Simba in THE LION KING. Credit: Disney Studios

    A surprisingly light category this year, Best Visual Effects has oscillated between visual spectacles and subtler fare (Ex Machina and last year’s winner First Man, for example). However, more often than not, when there’s Best Picture nominee nominated, it wins. Which means 1917 has the best chance.

    Will win: 1917
    Could win: The Irishman
    Should win: The Lion King
    Should’ve been nominated: Ad Astra

    Best Sound Editing

    Will win: Ford v Ferrari
    Could win: 1917
    Should win: Ford v Ferrari
    Should’ve been nominated: The Lighthouse

    Best Sound Mixing

    Will win: Ford v Ferrari
    Could win: 1917
    Should win: Ad Astra
    Should’ve been nominated: Hustlers

    Best Original Score

    As much as it pains me that Thomas Newman loses another Oscars, the love for Hildur Guðnadóttir’s Joker score is too great. With a Golden Globe and BAFTA under her belt, it’s her’s to lose.

    Will win: Joker
    Could win: 1917
    Should win: 1917
    Should’ve been nominated: Uncut Gems

    Best Original Song

    Rocketman Movie
    Taron Egerton as Elton John in Rocketman. Credit: Paramount Pictures.

    Elton John and Bernie Taupin will get to accept just their second award together *ever* when they easily win for “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman.

    Will win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
    Could win: “Stand Up” from Harriet

    Best International Feature

    Will win: Parasite
    Could win: Pain and Glory
    Should win: Parasite
    Should’ve been nominated: Portrait of a Lady on Fire

    Best Documentary Feature

    Will win: For Sama
    Could win: Honeyland
    Should win: Honeyland
    Should’ve been nominated: Apollo 11

    Best Animated Feature

    This is one of the most competitive years for Best Animated Feature ever. Usually, there’s an easy pick — and usually, it’s the Pixar movie. However, every precursor has gone a different way. I’m still going to go with Toy Story 4, but don’t be surprised if it’s BAFTA winner Klaus.

    Will win: Toy Story 4
    Could win: Klaus
    Should win: I Lost My Body

  • 2020 Oscar Predictions — Best Picture

    2020 Oscar Predictions — Best Picture

    Best Picture at the 2020 Oscars is going to be one of the most competitive races of all time. Here are my predictions. 

    Updated December 14, 2019

    Likely nomination (listed alphabetically):

    On the bubble:

    • Bombshell
    • The Farewell
    • Ford v Ferrari
    • Joker
    • Little Women

    See all my Oscar predictions here.
    Full analysis of this category below ?


    After a tumultuous festival season, the Oscar race has finally coalesced around a few contenders. Remember, anywhere between five and ten movies could be nominated — a nominee needs to be listed at number one on at least 5% of the ballots — which means we have to look at movies with broad support. Here are the likely nominees:

    • THREE SLOTS are going to be taken up by the frontrunners: Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, and Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. Of all the contenders, they are the safest for nominations.
    • TWO SLOTS are reserved for the dark horse contenders: Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit and Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite. The former won the coveted Toronto International Film Festival People’s Choice Award and the latter is the most critically acclaimed movie of the year and won the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
    • ONE SLOT is taken up by the Oscar-bait movie: Sam Mendes’ World War I thriller 1917. What can I say? The Academy can’t resist a war movie.

    Since the rule change, we haven’t gotten less than or more than nine nominees. That means there are two or three slots left. Here’s who’s on the bubble:

    • The most likely contender to take up a slot is Todd Phillips’ Joker. Joaquin Phoenix is the frontrunner for Best Actor and the movie landed surprise Best Picture and Director nominations at the Globes.
    • The next—and probably last—slot is a toss-up between Greta Gerwig’s Little Women and Jay Roach’s Bombshell. The latter shockingly led the SAG nominations (if you exclude the Stunt category) while the former has floundered in the precursors. However, Little Women is better reviewed and Gerwig is coming off a triple nomination for 2017’s Lady Bird. It’ll likely break in her favor.
    • If there’s another slot, it will be James Mangold’s Ford v Ferrari and Lulu Wang’s The Farewell.

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    There’s still plenty of room for a surprise:

    • The Two Popes nabbed surprise Best Motion Picture — Drama nomination at the Globes.
    • Knives Out was nominated for three Golden Globes and is a massive box office hit.

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    Hey! I’m Karl. You can find me on Twitter and Letterboxd. I’m also a Tomatometer-approved critic.

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  • 2020 Oscars — Predictions in every category

    2020 Oscars — Predictions in every category

    Who will be nominated at the 2020 Oscars? Here are our predictions for Best Picture and every category.

    The 2020 Oscars are certain to be one of the most unpredictable yet after an off year. In addition to the most diverse voting body ever, the 2020 Oscars will be held on February 9th, which makes it the earliest Academy Awards ceremony in history.

    Below are my predictions in all 24 categories — as I get to them ?. Come back to this page for updates. I’m going to try to update it once a month until December. Then, I’ll start updating weekly.

    More categories coming soon!


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    More movies, less problems


    Hey! I’m Karl. You can find me on Twitter and Letterboxd. I’m also a Tomatometer-approved critic.

    💌 Sign up for our weekly email newsletter with movie recommendations available to stream.


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