Like their films, Alfonso Cuarón, David O. Russell, and Steve McQueen are the frontrunners for Best Director.
This race is locked up. It’s locked up to that point that I am actually using it as part of my argument for Best Picture.
Alfonso Cuarón hasn’t lost a single race in his march to Oscar glory. It makes sense seeing as he made use of every single minute of screen time. Each shot was so well calculated and packed with meaning. It is really a director’s film.
Had “12 Years a Slave” maintained the strength it had earlier in the race, then Steve McQueen would have a chance, but without a DGA win his chances have pretty much been skunked.
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity Could Win: N/A Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity Should have been Nominated: Spike Jonze, Her
“American Hustle”, “12 Years a Slave”, and “Gravity” lead the Best Picture race.
***UPDATED 2/16
A lot has changed since the Oscar nominations came out a month ago. First, and probably most importantly, “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” tied for the PGA, which thrust “Gravity” back into contention. Second, “12 Years a Slave” won the BAFTA. Third, “Gravity” has pretty much dominated all the craft guild awards.
“American Hustle” looks like it’s in trouble. There has been a bit of a backlash. There has been a group of critics who have called its praise premature and that upon a second look it is completely overrated.
What we also have to look at is the fact that a split between Director and Picture is rare. When it does happen it is always a surprise (“Brokeback Mountain” takes director, “Crash” takes picture. “The Pianist” takes director, “Chicago” takes picture.) Although there have been times that it was expected, like Steven Soderbergh for “Traffic” it has been pretty consistent. So does this mean “Gravity” will win.
There is also the fact that it is going to sweep around 6-7 awards. When there is a sweep it is rare that the film doesn’t also win Best Picture. “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” for example won all 11 of its races, “Titanic” won 11 awards, “The Hurt Locker” won 6, “Shakespeare in Love” won 7. So in short, Gravity is the frontrunner.
UPDATE 2/27: Will the Academy really award a CGI driven, space oriented film starring a woman? I’m not so confident anymore. My FINAL PREDICTION is for “12 Years a Slave”
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: “12 Years a Slave” Could Win: “Gravity” Should Win: “12 Years a Slave” or “Her” or “Nebraska” or “Gravity” (This was a good year…) Should have been nominated: Dream Choice: “Short Term 12”; Practical Choice: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Inside Llewyn Davis” was almost completely shut out, but “Philomena” surprised. Jonah Hill also receives hi second career nominations.
So the Academy Award nominations were announced this morning and as usual they were filled snubs and surprises. So read on below to see our reactions and check out the complete list of nominations here!
SNUBS
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler: Early on in the season Oprah seemed like she was a lock to win Best Supporting Actress but she, along with her film, was completely snubbed for any nominations. I’m sure she is crying into her stacks of money.
Daniel Brühl, Rush: This is a snub that hurt a lot. I thought his performance in Rush was one of the best of the year. His buzz waned in the midseason, but he ended up being nominated for a Golden Globe and more shockingly a SAG award, but the Oscars stopped his formula one racing car.
Spike Jonze, Her:The Best Director race was pretty competitive this year, but after he and his film gained considerable buzz from early awards, I though he would sneak in, but you should never question a household name like Scorsese.
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks: I was sure that Amy Adams was going to get into this category at the expense of another actress that was seen as safe, but I didn’t think it would be Emma Thompson, apparently the Academy doesn’t like Disney too much.
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banksand Captain Phillips: The snub for the former film is not as shocking, he was essentially left off all precursor awards, but he seemed pretty safe for Captain Phillips. Looks like Tom Hanks has lost his luster with the Academy.
Inside Llewyn Davis: I thought this was one of the best films of the year (you can look at my rankings here.) It was on shaky ground in Best Picture, but I still expected it to be nominated. I think the biggest surprise is that it was left our of the Best Original Screenplay race. The film did end up receiving 2 nominations for Sound Mixing and Cinematography.
Monsters University: Although it had a mixed reception, it had Pixar backing its campaign and you should never vote against Pixar. Looks like they have to sit this year out.
Stories We Tell and Blackfish: I know Best Documentary is unpredictable, but when two of your locks get snubbed, then you have to pay attention. Both film seemed to be on solid footing, but my surprise pick, Cutie and the Boxer did make it in.
“Young and Beautiful,” The Great Gatsby: This is one of the best songs produced from a motion picture this year. It’s a shame, just a shame.
SURPRISES
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street: As a friend of mine said: “Who would have thought the kid from Superbad would get two Oscar nominations?” It was a shock, but it looks like The Wolf of Wall Street has more support than we thought.
Dallas Buyers Club: We expected that it would do well in nominations, but 6 is shocking. Leto, McConaughey, and their nomination for Picture weren’t at all surprising, but for them to receive an additional 3 nominations, including one for Film Editing, puts them in this race.
Christian Bale, American Hustle: He is one of the best actors of this century, there is no doubting that, but for him to sneak in at the expense of Robert Redford and Tom Hanks is something you can’t deny. Sadly his hairpiece in the film was snubbed.
Philomena: People were underestimating the film, but for it to pull off a Best Picture nomination in addition to 4 other nominations was something to marvel at. I can’t believe that this film snuck in, in place of Inside Llewyn Davis, but it was a crowd pleaser.
Nomination Totals: However, one of the bigger shocks of the day are the total number of nominations. Many expected 12 Years a Slave and Gravity to lead the nominations, but it was American Hustle and Gravity. This could spell disaster for the Best Picture frontrunner, American Hustle is biting at their tail.
For the second year in a row, David O. Russell was able to get nominations in all 4 acting categories. The Academy obviously loves him.
What surprised you in the nominations this morning?
