Category: Predictions

Like the rest of the categories this year, Best Supporting Actress is incredibly competitive. You can make an argument for all 5 of the acting nominees. Yes, even Sally Hawkins.

In the lead is Lupita Nyong’o. While Jennifer Lawrence did take the Golden Globe, it was no surprise. We knew that the Hollywood Foreign Press would award the it-girl of Hollywood, who also happens to be a complete bombshell. However, it was Lupita Nyong’o who was consistently swept the critics awards and recently won the Critics’ Choice Award last night. You can tell by the reaction to her win that the performance was well-liked from the industry. What nearly seals the deal for her is her Screen Actors Guild Award win, which shows support within the actors branch.

Her biggest competition is last year’s Oscar winner for Best Actress, Jennifer Lawrence. American Hustle looks like 12 Years a Slave’s biggest competition for Best Picture. She also benefits from the fact that her film has nominations in all 4 acting categories. Whenever this occurs, at least one actor wins in their category. With it unlikely that the men will win and Amy Adams in a spoiler position, it looks as if Jennifer Lawrence may be that one acting win. Not to mention she is the scene stealer of her film.

I think June Squibb has a much stronger chance than many others think. She plays the typical sassy one-liner role that tends to win in this category. Octavia Spencer, Melissa Leo, and Penélope Cruz are just a few of the recent winners to fit that bill. She is also a place to honor “Nebraska. If there is a spoiler in this category it is definitely her.

The one factor that is a complete wild card is Sally Hawkins. Most Oscar pundits have her in last place, but when the results of some voters’ ballots were released she led by a significant margin and I can see why. She gives the best performance in the category. A lesser actress may have been drowned out by Cate Blanchett, but she has such presence in the film that even when she is just in the background you are aware of her presence. It should also be noted that if “Blue Jasmine” is an update of “A Street Car Named Desire”, then Hawkins role, which is the Stella character, has already won an Oscar for Kim Hunter.

Check out my ranking below and all of our Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: June Squibb, Nebraska
Could Win: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Should Win: Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
Should have been nominated: Octavia Spencer, “Fruitvale Station”

Sundance hit Birth of a Nation and Cannes breakout Loving are Early Oscar Frontrunners

The Cannes Film Festival is just ending and for people not cool enough to attend, but are too geeky to not keep track of what the buzz coming out of there is (me) it also marks the real beginning of Oscar season. Out of Sundance we got titles like Birth of A Nation and Manchester by the Sea, but lately Cannes has really been a strong place to begin Oscar buzz. Just last year we got Mad Max: Fury Road, Carol, and Son of Saul from the festival, which all were nominated and for Max and Saul won Oscars. Just a few years ago in 2011 we had three movie out of Cannes nominated for Best Picture: Midnight in Paris, Best Picture winner The Artist, and Palme d’Ore winner The Tree of Life. This year, the biggest contender out of the festival has to be Jeff Nichols’ (Mud, Take Shelter) Loving, which tells the story of the couple whose Supreme Court case took down laws banning interracial marriage. First of all, it is an unfortunately timely story (unfortunately because we shouldn’t have to be talking about race in 2016), it could help the Oscars fix their image after the second straight year of #OscarsSoWhite, and it’s looking to be a major vehicle for both Joel Egerton and Ruth Ann Nega. Barring a huge controversy or poor reviews upon release, I really think that we’re looking at the very least a lock for nomination if not a contender for the win.

The only other movie I can see factoring into the Best Picture race is Steven Spielberg’s The BFG. Reviews haven’t been exactly glowing, however it has been lauded as a fantastic technical achievement. In addition, Mark Rylance is once again being lauded for his performance after his surprise (or not too surprising to some of us) win last year. I don’t think it’s going to factor into the Best Picture race as a contender to win, but I think it’s going to be the nominee that receives a large amount of nominations and wins (a la Fury Road), but lose in the bigger races. Rylance is in a great spot for another nomination, however it’ll depend a lot on how the rest of the year shapes up. While he’s receiving raves, motion capture is not well-received by the Academy at all (just ask Andy Serkis).

Outside the early festivals, there are a couple contenders that have already been released that could actually have a shot at a nomination. The first is Disney’s The Jungle Book. If The BFG is a box-office failure or reviews aren’t as glowing at its release, the company could turn their resources to a movie that was already tested earlier this year. With a huge box office that is set to cross the billion-dollar mark and consistent acclaim, it would have been an easier pick had it been later in the year. The Oscar fate of this film really lies in how hard Disney is going to push it. I have a feeling that they’re going to put their weight behind The BFG for the main awards, but if they’re smart they won’t forget to push jungle book for Visual Effects, Production Design, and possibly even an Adapted Screenplay or Director. It’s going to be one of those movies that’s going to be floating around my ninth, tenth, or eleventh slot, but I’d really keep an eye out for this one.

As for the films we have not yet seen, a really easy one is Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Why they didn’t shorten the title I do not know. However, it already has a lot going for it. First of all it has two-time Best Director winner Ang Lee behind it, and in typical fashion he’s tackling a genre and technology he has never used before. With different screen formats for different parts of the movie and even 3-D, it’ll be interesting to see how voters and critics react to the film. But based on the trailer I really think that this could finally be Lee’s movie that wins Best Picture (we’re not even going to mention the disaster that was the 2004 Oscars). Unlike his previous two pictures, it has the scale of Life of Pi, but the heart of Brokeback Mountain. While Pi of course did have heart and Brokeback had scale, it’s the balance of the two that I don’t think either had (among other things… *cough* straight people *cough*). What is going to hold him back is the controversy from Life of Pi’s campaign. Lee was heavily and publicly criticized by the Visual Effects industry for his comments relating to the value of their work and he has even been accused of having a hand in an entire company going bankrupt. Maybe enough time has passed that people have forgotten about it, but the fact that I’m talking about it now doesn’t bode well. Then again, I’m a geek that stores all this useless information in my head.

Other contenders that I haven’t mentioned yet are Scorsese’s Silence, which isn’t being released until December. The Founder, which is looking like it’s going to be more of a vehicle for Michael Keaton, could be a contender despite it being moved from the awards-friendly October to August.

One possibility that isn’t being talked about as much is Fences which is the David Mamet play that won the Tony for Best Revival of a Play as well as acting awards for Viola Davis and Denzel Washington. Both are returning to the roles with Washington directing. He hasn’t really been tested as a director. However, with strong source material and a potentially Oscar-worthy performance from Davis, it could be propelled into the Best Picture race. Its biggest hurdle is whether it will be ready in time.

Other titles include the Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt film Passengers, sci-fi drama Story of Your Life, and the Hudson River plane landing film Sully. Another contender could be Patriot’s Day, which tells the story of the manhunt following the Boston Bombing. While a 9/11 movie never made it to the Oscar stage, a movie about the manhunt behind it did: Zero Dark Thirty. That is the angle that I could see this movie taking. Though its director, Peter Berg, isn’t as tested as Kathryn Bigelow.

Then there is the question of whether The Birth of a Nation is the strong frontrunner. I am going to say a hard no. While it is not unheard of to have a frontrunner this early in the season, we just don’t know enough about the movie to declare it an easy pick. Reception out of Sundance was great, however there were detractors that said that the movie needed work. The studio knows they have a great chance at the top prize, so like it was done with 12 Years a Slave, they are going to carefully fine-tune it to its best form. When we see that version I’ll be more willing to pick it.

If I was going to make a gutsy pick, I’d give it to Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. I know we haven’t seen it, but Ang Lee has yet to make a bad movie in his career, and most importantly he is desperately overdue for a Best Picture win. We’ll just have to see what the awards season holds.

While it’s too early to be making concrete predictions, we can certainly start to conjecture who the contenders are for the 2017 Oscars. Best Actress is looking to be one of the most competitive acting categories this year.

Right now, at the top of the list, we have two-time nominee Viola Davis (Fences) who should have won for her role in The Help in 2012. Instead, she was passed over for Meryl Streep’s 3rd win. The ridiculous thing here is that the narrative behind Streep’s win had to do with the fact that she hadn’t won in 30 years. On the other hand, every one of her competitors hadn’t yet won an Oscar. Poor Glenn Close was on her sixth nomination. However, the majority of pundits thought it was a race between Streep and Davis.

Now, with her role in the Denzel Washington directed movie, which she won a Tony for in the play version, she is going to have some of the most Oscar-baity material of any actor in the last couple years. The question now is whether or not she will be submitted into lead. She won for lead when the play was revived in 2010, but Mary Alice (who played the role in the original production) won for the Tony equivalent for supporting. No matter the category, she is the one to beat.

However, she is going to have to contend (yet again) with Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). Streep should be good for a nomination here. She has been nominated for worst. However, there definitely isn’t a path for a win. The movie isn’t going to be a major Oscar player and unlike her Iron Lady win she doesn’t have the narrative.

Davis’ real competition is going to come from Emma Stone (La La Land). After her first nomination for Birdman, she is coming back to play an easier role for the Academy to swallow. Not only that, she sings, she dances, and she plays a character that is going to be embraced by the Hollywood audience. What she doesn’t have is a strong narrative like Davis. While she has been around for a long time in relation to her age, she hasn’t had as many impactful dramatic performances, perhaps her closest time to Oscar being with The Help (which she ironically co-starred with Davis in).

Another strong contender is going to be Ruth Ann Negga (Loving). Her quiet performance in the Jeff Nichols’ drama about the couple whose Supreme Court case made interracial marriage legal has been lauded consistently since it premiered at Cannes. However, it isn’t a typical Oscar performance. She doesn’t scream or cry or yell, she is restrained. That’s going to be her biggest hurdle. However, Loving is set to be a major contender across categories, which will give her some much-needed momentum.

Natalie Portman (Jackie) is a role that seems tailor-made for the Oscars. She’s playing a real-life person that deals with nearly every emotion imaginable with her role as Jackie Kennedy. She has the advantage of having the film be solely focused on her. However, the film at this point isn’t going to be a contender in any other categories, which will severely limit its reach. However, her reviews have been so strong and consistent across that board that I can’t see her missing.

Then we have a tight cluster of actresses vying for a spot. There’s Amy Adams who has two movies she’s contending for, but the more likely Oscar vehicle is Arrival. After its premiere at Venice, the movie was launched into the Oscar conversation after months of speculation. The question was whether or not the short story, “Story of Your Life,” could be expanded successfully into a feature. The answer was a resounding yes with praise in tow for Adams. In any other year, she would have finally gotten her Oscar, but this year is so competitive that she’s not even assured a nomination. However, if she does get in, she has a pretty strong “it’s time” narrative on her side.

I think these are the most likely contenders at this point. Of course, there are many other actresses that are in the conversation. There’s Annette Bening (20th Century Women) who is looking to finally get her Oscar after three nominations for Best Actress and one for Best Supporting Actress, Isabelle Huppert (Elle) in a role that few actresses could pull off, Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) who is looking for her first nomination, and perennial nominee Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers).

The incredible thing is that I can keep going and name more actresses. That’s how competitive this year is. All we know at this point is that this is the category to watch.