Smash Cut

Category: Predictions

  • 2014 FINAL Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

    2014 FINAL Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

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    Lead Actor in a Comedy Series is pretty much an open race and it has been that way even before the nominees were announced. In the past, the default winner has been Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory), and he returns strong to the race with yet another Sheldon is drunk episode. However, for me the clear standout from the pack, in terms of both buzz and episode is William H. Macy (Shameless). He got in partially because of the odd buzz around his show’s switch from drama to comedy, but he also has his name. He’s the veteran of the group. He’s also the one actor in the lineup that hasn’t been nominated for his role before. Then, there is his episode, and it’s a doozy. He’s dying… doesn’t standout much more than that.

    Right behind him is Emmy darling Ricky Gervais (Derek). In addition to winning an Emmy for just about anything, he ended up being a surprise nominee that shouldn’t have been a surprise at all.


    1. William H. Macy (Shameless)
    2. Ricky Gervais (Derek)
    3. Louis C.K. (Louie)
    4. Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
    5. Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
    6. Don Cheadle (House of Lies)

  • 2014 FINAL Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

    2014 FINAL Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

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    Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) is going for the three peat, and I think she’s going to do it. For some odd reason, she’s been unable to submit her best for Veep. The first season she submitted the episode tears when there were clear alternatives like the Pilot and “Baseball.” The second season, she submitted the episode “Running”, which offered her some physical comedy and intoxication, but was no where near as strong as season finale “DC.” However, she still won both times. Why? Because an average Julia Louis-Dreyfus tape, is a great one in the Emmy field. In the episode “Crate”, which is along the same lines. She doesn’t have too much to do, except for the incredible bathroom scene when she discovers that she is becoming president. It seems like enough, partially in thanks to the relatively weak field of episodes.

    Her closest competition is Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly). Although she was snubbed last year after winning for the freshman season and being nominated once more, she comes back strong with an episode that has all the hallmarks of an Emmy winning episode. First, there’s range. It’s a surprisingly emotional episode of the series, which isn’t something you usually get from a multi-cam sitcom. The episode has a strong storyline with a beginning, middle, and end. Lastly, she has a lot of impact. You feel bad for her, and sometimes that’s all you need.

    There is some competition coming from Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation), who is the overdue choice, and Taylor Schilling (Orange is the New Black), who would be the freshman choice. I could see it going either of those ways before going back to McCarthy, but I think Dreyfus is the safer choice here.

    1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (“Crate”)
    2. Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly (“Mind Over Molly”)
    3. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (“Recall Vote”)
    4. Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black (“Fucksgiving”)
    5. Lena Dunham, Girls (“Beach House”)
    6. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (“Super Greens”)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

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    The Drama Supporting Actor is a category that comes down to the episode submissions, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. The race comes down to the three contenders:

    Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (“The Laws of Gods and Men”): Peter Dinklage won this category for the show’s first season, with an episode that really only had one scene for him to shine. The same somewhat goes for his episode submission this year. As Tyrion stands trial for murder, he must watch as his defense is slowly chipped away until he reaches his breaking point and delivers a passionate speech condemning everyone in the room. It is really the best kind of Emmys speech. He is relentless and there are yells, gasps, and screams as he speaks. There is also a lot of gravitas in the performance. You feel bad for Tyrion. You’re on his side. Then, the episode closes on his face. The one drawback is that you have to wait for that scene… a long 50 minutes.
    Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad (“Confessions”): Aaron Paul has win this category twice. The first time was for the episode “Half Measures.” It was a bit of a watershed episode for Jesse. He must deal with drug dealers who are using children to sell drugs. His second win came from the episode “End Times,” which was one of the strongest episode submissions for a supporting actor in years. “Confessions” is similarly a watershed episode. Every single scene is just Jesse pouring out emotion whether it’s sadness, anger, or all out rage. His one hitch is that he doesn’t show up until about halfway through the episode. Although, he is on screen the entire time from that point.
    Josh Charles, The Good Wife (“Hitting the Fan”): I’m really glad that Josh Charles submitted “Hitting the Fan” opposed to “Dramatics, Your Honor.” While the latter sure is memorable, “Hitting the Fan” offers him a lot of emotion, opposed to his usual stone face. The best part of the episode is that the now iconic desk scene opens the episode. He is complete war mode and he shows it with complete rage. He also has the advantage of having consistent screen time.

    My head is telling me to go with Dinklage, my gut says it’s Charles, and my heart wants to go with Paul. This is as much of a toss up as categories get. I’m throwing a dart and landing on Aaron Paul here, but very unconfidently. If Dinklage or Charles take it, I will be just as happy.

    1. Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
    2. Josh Charles (Game of Thrones)
    3. Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
    4. Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
    5. Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
    6. Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    Featured Supporting Actress Drama

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series is a category with a lot of great performances, but one is pretty much a lock to win. With the episode submission “Ozymandias” and the buzz of the final season, last year’s winner Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad) is a near shoe-in for a win.

    However, the dark horse in this category is a surprising one. Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey) was a surprise nominee for some, but others (those who still watch Downton Abbey) were sure that she would get in, and I see why. Her episode submission (Episode 4.2 in the U.S. and Episode 4.3 in the U.K.) involves a controversial rape scene that gives her some really strong and heartbreaking material.

    While Christine Baranski has a watershed episode dealing with the death of Will, I think she should have instead submitted the less emotional “Outside the Bubble”, which offers her more screen time and a great storyline.

    Supporting Actress Drama

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    1. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad (“Ozymandias”)
    2. Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey (“Episode 4.2”)
    3. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (“The Last Call”)
    4. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (“Episode 4.8”)
    5. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (“The Strategy”)
    6. Lena Headey, Game of Thrones (“The Lion and the Rose”)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Guest Actress in a Drama Series

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Guest Actress in a Drama Series

    Featured Drama Supporting ActressIf you asked me two months ago who would win Guest Actress in a Drama Series, I would have put all my money on Allison Janney (Masters of Sex) for her masterful portrayal of a sexually frustrated housewife. However, after watching the tapes, it looks like there is another contender trying to stab her in the back (I very carefully chose this wording).

    This is a category where the loudest performance often wins. From Ann Margaret for Law & Order: SVU to Sally Field for ER, it seems like if you play a heightened character, then you are due. This year, almost every single performance is extremely understated, except Kate Burton (Scandal).

    SPOILER ALERT FOR SCANDAL! In her episode submission, entitled “A Door Marked Exit,” she murders her gay cheating husband in the first scene by stabbing him repeatedly in the back. If that doesn’t get a voters attention, then I don’t know what will. Then, throughout the episode she cries and screams her way through a cover-up for said gruesome murder. END SPOILER.

    It’s just the type of performance that wins this category. Another consideration is that Janney is also nominated in the Supporting Comedy Actress category for Mom (see our predictions here). The judging panels will be different, however if voters think there’s enough Janney to go around, they may be inclined to mark the clear alternative.

    Although Janney gets to cry in her episode, Burton’s submission is all out madness. I still have Janney out front. Despite everything I said so far, she still has momentum on her side. However, don’t be surprised to see Scandal take yet another acting category.
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    Guest Actress Drama FINAL
    1. Allison Janney, Masters of Sex (“Brand New World”)
    2. Kate Burton, Scandal (“A Door Marked Exit”)
    3. Jane Fonda, The Newsroom (“Red Team III”)
    4. Kate Mara, House of Cards (“Chapter 14”)
    5. Diana Rigg, Game of Thrones (“The Lion and the Rose”)
    6. Margo Martindale, The Americans (“Behind the Red Door”)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: TV Movie

    2014 Emmy Predictions: TV Movie

    Featured TV MovieThis is by far the easiest category to predict. The Normal Heart is pretty much running this race unopposed. It did extremely well in the nominations with 16, leading all TV movies, and it did receive critical acclaim.

    If there is a very unlikely upset, it would probably be Sherlock: His Last Vow. There’s no question that the show is extremely popular and it interestingly (and wisely) submitted a single installment as a film.

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    TV Movie FINAL1. The Normal Heart
    2. Sherlock: His Last Vow
    3. The Trip to Bountiful
    4. Killing Kennedy
    5. Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

    I’ve been avoiding predicting this category like the plague. It is probably the hardest category to predict, because there is not even a semblance of a frontrunner. The top three contenders are neck and neck, and this race could really go either way.

    First of all there is Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart). Her role in won Ellen Barkin a Tony and offers Roberts a lot strong and passionate speeches and scenes.

    On the other hand, there is Allison Tolman (Fargo) that gives a very understated underdog performance that has been critically acclaimed. It also doesn’t hurt that Fargo did extremely well in the nominations.

    Then, there is Oscar-winner Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Coven) who was an early frontrunner for the trophy. With the anthology series over-performing in nominations, and Bates being joined by two additional cast members, logistics could be in her favor.

    For now, I’m going to have Tolman out front. It’s more of a hunch if anything, but I do think she has momentum going for her.

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    Miniseries Supporting Actress FINAL 1. Allison Tolman (Fargo)
    2. Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Coven)
    3. Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart)
    4. Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Coven)
    5. Ellen Burstyn (Flowers in the Attic)
    6. Frances Conroy (American Horror Story: Coven)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Comedy Series

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Comedy Series

    I’ve been hesitant to predict this category. I think that the category is being battled out between two of the biggest critical darlings of the year. Veep did surprisingly well last year winning 3 awards, with surprises in two of the categories. This year they did even better increasing their nomination total from five to nine, including a crucial nomination in the writing category. However, Orange is the New Black performed extremely well for their first season as well. They score key writing and directing nominations, did solidly in the technicals, and led all new shows. I think there is a lot of support and buzz for the series, that’s why I have them taking it.

    Four-time champ Modern Family is looking to tie Fraiser for the most wins in this category. However, it’s clear that there is a lot of waning support in the Academy. Although they did take the trophy last year, they only won in one other category. They also dropped in nominations, including losing out in two more supporting slots (Sofia Vergara and Ed O’Neill) in addition to Eric Stonestreet’s surprise snub last year.

    Comedy Series[maxbutton id=”3″]

    1. Orange is the New Black
    2. Veep
    3. Modern Family
    4. Louie
    5. Silicon Valley
    6. The Big Bang Theory

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    Emmy favorite Allison Janney (Mom) has been the presumed frontrunner of this race from the beginning of the season. However, I wasn’t totally buying that she could win based off name alone. However, the episode submissions have made it clear who this race comes down to. There are really only two viable contenders to win.

    Janney is still out front with the hilarious menopause episode of Mom. It’s reminiscent of Patricia Heaton’s “Bad Moon Rising” episode of Everybody Loves Raymond, which won her an Emmy.

    The other contender is Kate Mulgrew (Orange is the New Black). She has the benefit of having her episode focus on her character and allows her to show a lot of range. Although she doesn’t have any huge laugh out loud moments, it’s definitely the most unique tape in the bunch. She’s just behind Janney right now.

    Two-time winner and supposed frontrunner last year Julie Bowen (Modern Family) either didn’t have any better episodes or just submitted poorly. She has one somewhat funny physical comedy scene where she tries to itch her lice infested hair without having someone noticing, but it’s short and definitely not enough.

    If there is a Merritt Weaver situation like last year, it could be Anna Chlumsky (Veep) taking the trophy. Although her episode isn’t too impressive, I can see her being the alternative choice if voters can’t pick a winner, especially is Veep is a hit at this year’s Emmys.
    Supporting Actress Comedy FINAL[maxbutton id=”3″]
    1. Allison Janney, Mom (“Estrogen and Hearty Breakfast”)
    2. Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black (“Tit Punch”)
    3. Anna Chlumsky, Veep (“Detroit”)
    4. Julie Bowen, Modern Family (“The Feud”)
    5. Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (“Host: Anna Kendrick”)
    6. Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory (“The Indecision Amalmagation”)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

    Featured Guest Actor Drama[maxbutton id=”3″]
    There’s a tough two horse race in the works for the Emmy for Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series. Although Mad Men has never won an Emmy for acting, after their surprising season finale it looks like Robert Morse is going to have a real shot at breaking that curse. His screen time is not huge, but he does get emotional during the moon landing and then has a musical number (I know, WTF). It’s going to stand out a bit among his competitors.

    He is getting some strong competition from Beau Bridges (Masters of Sex) who gave an emotional performance where we see the lengths he goes to “cure” himself of his homosexuality. However, I think we are grossly underestimating Reg E. Cathey (House of Cards). Anyone who has watched his episode submission knows why I’m ranking him at number two. While his performance is extremely understated, his storyline has a lot of impact.

    The Katy Perry dark horse contender here is Joe Morton (Scandal). Most of his submission is spent in flashback with a lot of yelling, and tears, and sadness. Perfect Emmy bait. It helps that the show won here last year as well.
    Guest Actor Drama FINAL
    1. Robert Morse, Mad Men (“Waterloo”)
    2. Reg E. Cathey, House of Cards (“Chapter 22”)
    3. Beau Bridges, Masters of Sex (“Manhigh”)
    4. Joe Morton, Scandal (“Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner”)
    5. Paul Giamatti, Downton Abbey (“Episode 4.8”)
    6. Dylan Baker, The Good Wife (“Tying the Knot”)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

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    The race for Lead Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie is a tough one to hash out. Manu pundits have Oscar-winner Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo) leading to win by a large margin, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk like many think. Mark Ruffalo (The Normal Heart) gave a phenomenal and passionate performance, while Martin Freeman (Fargo) had a more comedic performance that was more focused towards the beginning of the miniseries. Voters are expected to watch the miniseries and movies in their entirety, however it is quite known that voters focus more on the beginning of the miniseries. So, in this case Freeman leads the race. Right now, I think Thornton still wins, but I’m going to do a bunch of switching in the coming weeks.

    Lead Actor Miniseries FINAL

    1. Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo
    2. Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
    3. Martin Freeman, Fargo
    4. Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
    5. Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow
    6. Idris Elba, Luther

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    Featured Comedy Supporting Actor[maxbutton id=”3″]

    Supporting Actor in a Comedy series is very close to being a done race. There is one episode submission that stands out from the pack and stuck with me throughout my viewing of the tapes. Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family) submitted the episode “Message Received” where he tries to get money for his wedding and ends with an emotional argument with his father over the disapproval of his wedding. It had range, impact, he had funny moments. It’s really a fantastic tape. Even better for him, his screen time clocks in at just under 8 minutes excluding the final “monologue,” which in this episode is an answering machine recording. It’s really a fantastic tape.

    Ty Burrell (Modern Family) really screwed up his submission. I can see why he chose the episode, but he only had around 4.5 minutes of screen time and Ferguson has a more prominent storyline. Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine) also submitted poorly. While he is part of the main storyline and has a good amount of screen time, he doesn’t have any material to show for it.

    Saying Ferguson is a lock might be presumptuous, but you can’t deny he’s the frontrunner here. If anyone takes him down, it’s Braugher for lazy name ticking, but I think he has it right now.

    Supporting Actor Comedy

    1. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (“Message Received”)
    2. Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (“Christmas”)
    3. Fred Armisen, Portlandia (“Pull-Out King”)
    4. Ty Burrell, Modern Family (“Spring-A-Ding Fling”)
    5. Tony Hale, Veep (“Crate”)
    6. Adam Driver, Girls     (“Two Plane Rides”)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

    Featured Comedy Guest Actor[maxbutton id=”3″]

    I think this category is going to come down between the two Saturday Night Live nominees. Jimmy Fallon had won in this category before for his hosting job, and has blasted into the spotlight this year when he took over The Tonight Show with acclaim and big ratings. However, Louis C.K. is also an Emmy favorite and could pose an upset.

    We also have to look out for last year’s winner Bob Newhart (The Big Bang Theory) to upset based on name alone. Nathan Lane (Modern Family) has a good episode submission, but since it’s more heavy toward the end and is relatively short, I don’t think he poses too big of a threat.

    Guest Actor Comedy FINAL
    1. Jimmy Fallon, Saturday Night Live (“Host: Jimmy Fallon”)
    2. Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory
    3. Louis C.K., Saturday Night Live (“Host: Louis C.K.”)
    4. Nathan Lane, Modern Family (“Wedding, Pt. 2”)
    5. Steve Buscemi, Portlandia
    6. Gary Cole, Veep (“Crate”)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

    Featured Miniseries Supporting Actor[maxbutton id=”3″]

    The race for Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or TV movie is pretty much over. Matt Bomer is far and away the deserving frontrunner to win for his tragic performance in The Normal Heart. Martin Freeman (Sherlock: His Last Vow) has a small chance to upset, but I think an Emmy is more likely for his role in Fargo. Bomer’s co-stars have little chance in my eyes since it’s going to be difficult to choose between the three. Bomer is the clear standout from the pack.

    As for the other nominees, grab some booze, throw on a tux, and get ready with your happy losing face because this race was over before it even started.
    Miniseries Supporting Actor FINAL
    1. Matt Bomer, (The Normal Heart)
    2. Martin Freeman (Sherlock: His Last Vow)
    3. Joe Mantello (The Normal Heart)
    4. Jim Parsons (The Normal Heart)
    5. Colin Hanks (Fargo)
    6. Alfred Molina (The Normal Heart)

  • 2014 Emmy Predictions: Miniseries

    2014 Emmy Predictions: Miniseries

    Featured Miniseries[maxbutton id=”3″]
    Miniseries is one of the few categories I can call a lock for a win. Fargo is far and away the frontrunner of the category. Although it didn’t overwhelm in the ratings, it opened to huge critical acclaim and received 18 nominations, second only to Game of Thrones. I can’t see a show upsetting them at this point, however if I had to pick a second place finisher, it would be American Horror Story: Coven. The anthology series picked up its first writing and directing nominations, which does show an increase in support.

    Other than those two, it seems that all the other shows are out of the competition.

    Miniseries

    1. Fargo
    2. American Horror Story: Coven
    3. Treme
    4. Luther
    5. Bonnie and Clyde
    6. The White Queen