Category: Predictions

I feel really bad about this category. Not because it’s a weak category, or because there is a lack of competition. Mostly because I haven’t watched the majority of the nominees.

Either way, I must trudge on and attempt to predict. The general sentiment is the Italy’s “The Great Beauty” will take the category and I agree. I see no reason why it wouldn’t. It is one of the two nominees that I actually watched and while I found it a bit pretentious, I understand the appeal.

The film I would say has a good chance to upset also happens to be the other film that I watched from the category. “The Hunt” already won the Best Actor prize at the Cannes Film Festival and is similar in its dark tone and sheer brutality to last years winner “Amour”.

Check out my predictions below and my other Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: “The Great Beauty” (Italy)
Could Win: “The Hunt” (Denmark)
Should Win: “The Hunt” (Denmark)
Should have been nominated: “Gloria” (Chile) (Picture a spanish “How Stella Got Her Groove Back”)

When it comes to Oscar predictions, the consensus tends to be right. However, there are rare cases where I think the consensus is wrong.

Such is the case with Best Documentary Feature. Almost every media outlet is predicting The Act of Killing, but I think that there is going to be a huge shock in the category.

Stories We Tell was one of the most acclaimed documentaries of the year, mostly for its unique style, however it was snubbed, which makes it clear that the academy is obviously not ready to embrace art house documentaries. This is why I think the more traditional doc The Square is going to surprise. As I explained here, they have several factors going for them.

The only other film in the category that I think will have chance is 20 Feet from Stardom, which is the most uplifting of the nominees.

Check out my predictions below and all our Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: The Square
Spoiler: The Act of Killing
Should Win: Cutie and the Boxer (I think it’s the most human of the documentaries.)
Should Have Been Nominated: Stories We Tell, Blackfish

Unlike Best Original Song, the winner for Best Original Score at the Golden Globes and Oscars tend to match up. In the past ten years the two awards have agreed on the winner seven times, compared to the one time the two awards agreed on Best Original Song.

However, in a huge shakeup, Golden Globe winner Alex Ebert for All is Lost was snubbed at the Oscars. In an even bigger shakeup, Academy Award winner and 9-time nominee in this category Hans Zimmer was snubbed for his work in 12 Years a Slave.

With the two enormous snubs mentioned above, Steven Price for Gravity all but won the Oscar. Not that it wouldn’t be deserved, his score is looming and restrained at the same time. It fits the film like a glove, but one nominee surpassed his work.

I think that the one film that has a chance to take the award is Arcade Fire and Owen Pallett for Her. The reason? In my opinion it is the best score of the year. It complements Spike Jonze’s sensitive direction so well, and at certain point is catchy.

Check out my rankings below and all of my Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: Steven Price, Gravity
Could Win: Arcade Fire & Owen Pallett, Her
Should Win: Arcade Fire & Owen Pallett, Her
Should Have Been Nominated: Hanz Zimmer, Rush (Note: I think Zimmer’s work in Rush was far superior to his in 12 Years a Slave.)

Before I give you my predictions for Best Original Song, I have to give a startling statistic. In the last ten years, the winner of the Golden Globe for Best Original Song only repeated at the Oscars once. The last time it occurred was in 2009 when “The Weary Kind” from Crazy Heart won over both award shows.

That being said, this essentially makes “Let it Go” from Frozen the frontrunner. In addition to its loss at the Golden Globes (which is a positive here), it also is honestly the best song of the bunch.

I do think that “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom has a chance. Like I said, the winner of the Golden Globe has won over the Oscars before, however it tends to be the song that is a clear frontrunner (“My Heart Will Go On”, “Into the West”) and I don’t believe “Ordinary Love” has that luxury. It does have the power of its writers U2 behind it, but that is often not a factor.

Check out my predictions below and all of our Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: “Let it Go” from Frozen
Could Win: “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Should Win:“Let it Go” from Frozen
Should Have Been Nominated: “Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby

Best Original Screenplay is probably one of my favorite above the line categories at the Oscars. Screenwriters have the hardest, but most gratifying jobs in the entertainment industry. This years, there have been some fantastic original movies this year, and honestly any of the nominees this year would be deserving, but whether they will win is another question.

I think in the lead is a Spike Jonze for Her. It has a few things going for it, but first and foremost it is one of the two nominees that is wholly original (the other being Bob Nelson for Nebraska). He has also consistently been winning different critics’ groups award including the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice awards. I also think that it is wholly unique from anything that has been nominated before. Romances are no strangers to this category (Before Sunset, the prequel to current nominee Before Midnight, was nominated in this category), however none have commented on society like Spike Jonze did in Her. It is also probably the one category that voters would feel comfortable awarding the film.

However, right on their tail is Eric Singer and David O. Russell for American Hustle. The film is one of the three frontrunners for Best Picture. It also helps that the Academy has quite the love affair with David O. Russell, who has been nominated in Best Director three times and nominated last year in Adapted Screenplay for Silver Linings Playbook. Although the film has a good chance in other categories, voters may decide that this is where they should award the film if it fails to win (Picture, Director, Actress, or Supporting Actress, where I have the film in second place).

Although I’m pretty certain that one of the two above films will win, there is room for Bob Nelson for Nebraska to potentially upset. He has created such a charming screenplay with great characters. If Gravity is a director’s film, then Nebraska is a writers film. Woody Allen was a factor when nominations first came out, but the Academy would not want to hand him an Oscar amidst the recent controversy concerning Dylan Farrow.

Check out my predictions below and all of our Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: Spike Jonze, Her
Could Win: Eric Singer & David O. Russell, American Hustle
Should Win: Spike Jonze, Her
Should Have been Nominated: Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Other than Jared Leto in Best Supporting Actor, I think this is the only other category that is essentially a lock. Cate Blanchett (whose role in Blue Jasmine has been compared to the role of Blanche DuBois in A Streetcar Named Desire) has lost just four awards this season. That includes her 38 nominations in different critics groups around the nation.

Although she won an Oscar relatively recently, at least by Academy standards, it was in the Supporting category. Many Academy members may want to award the actress in the more prestigious Best Actress category. It also helps that her role in Blue Jasmine is probably one of the more complex of the year. She plays in two different points in her life, before and after her husband goes to jail. In one she is an uptight upper east sider, while in the other she is an alcoholic delusional divorcee.

There are two people that I could see beating her here. Amy Adams landed a surprise (to some people) nomination, which could mean a large amount of support. Now I know she missed out on a Screen Actors Guild nomination, which is essential to taking the top prize, but she is well liked in the Academy (she received 5 nominations in 8 years).  In addition, she gives a very emotional performance, probably the best of the film’s ensemble. She is definitely in this.

The other is Sandra Bullock. I think that she has the sweep factor in her favor. If voters decide to give “Gravity” six or seven awards, why not Bullock?

Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Could Win: Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Should Win: Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
Should have been Nominated: Brie Larson, “Short Term 12”

I’m calling that Best Actor is the most competitive category of the year. In any other year I would have been delighted by Christian Bale’s nomination, but this year with the amount of talent I’m a little disappointed that he was nominated.

Also, in any other year, any of the other four actors nominated could have won and I would be happy, but this year they have made one of the most competitive categories in years.

There is honestly no indication of a winner. I know that it seems that Matthew McConaughey is in the lead and he won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice, but I honestly just can’t see Oscar voters rallying behind him.

Chiwetel Ejiofor nearly dominated the early critics’ awards and won the BAFTA, but 12 Years a Slave doesn’t have the wide spread support anymore. I think that the movie has to be solidly in the lead for Best Picture for him to win.

Although “comedy” performances tend not to well here, Leonardo DiCaprio has quickly become one of Oscars biggest losers. He won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice for Best Comedy Actor, but it doesn’t feel like there is an urgency to award him.

Lastly, there is the apple in a bunch of oranges. Bruce Dern is the veteran of the bunch, who delivers a quiet, but sweet performance. I think this leads me to believe he can take it. He didn’t do well in the precursors, but he was always there, always nominated. He has also led a strong campaign.

UPDATE 2/17: This category is a shot in the dark. Right now, I think that shot is going to land on Dern, but I’m going to change that prediction a few more times from now till Oscar night.

UPDATE 2/27: I’m actually switching over to DiCaprio and I’m going to stay put there till Oscar night. Wishful thinking or an accurate hunch? I have no clue.

Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Could Win: Literally anyone except Christian Bale
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street (That was a bravura performance. If it was any other actor in the role it would have ended up being caricature, but he grounded it.)
Should Have been Nominated: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

This race is locked up. It’s locked up to that point that I am actually using it as part of my argument for Best Picture.

Alfonso Cuarón hasn’t lost a single race in his march to Oscar glory. It makes sense seeing as he made use of every single minute of screen time. Each shot was so well calculated and packed with meaning. It is really a director’s film.

Had “12 Years a Slave” maintained the strength it had earlier in the race, then Steve McQueen would have a chance, but without a DGA win his chances have pretty much been skunked.

Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Could Win: N/A
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Should have been Nominated: Spike Jonze, Her

***UPDATED 2/16

A lot has changed since the Oscar nominations came out a month ago. First, and probably most importantly, “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” tied for the PGA, which thrust “Gravity” back into contention. Second, “12 Years a Slave” won the BAFTA. Third, “Gravity” has pretty much dominated all the craft guild awards.

“American Hustle” looks like it’s in trouble. There has been a bit of a backlash. There has been a group of critics who have called its praise premature and that upon a second look it is completely overrated.

What we also have to look at is the fact that a split between Director and Picture is rare. When it does happen it is always a surprise (“Brokeback Mountain” takes director, “Crash” takes picture. “The Pianist” takes director, “Chicago” takes picture.) Although there have been times that it was expected, like Steven Soderbergh for “Traffic” it has been pretty consistent. So does this mean “Gravity” will win.

There is also the fact that it is going to sweep around 6-7 awards. When there is a sweep it is rare that the film doesn’t also win Best Picture. “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” for example won all 11 of its races, “Titanic” won 11 awards, “The Hurt Locker” won 6, “Shakespeare in Love” won 7. So in short, Gravity is the frontrunner.

UPDATE 2/27: Will the Academy really award a CGI driven, space oriented film starring a woman? I’m not so confident anymore. My FINAL PREDICTION is for “12 Years a Slave”

Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: “12 Years a Slave”
Could Win: “Gravity”
Should Win: “12 Years a Slave” or “Her” or “Nebraska” or “Gravity” (This was a good year…)
Should have been nominated: Dream Choice: “Short Term 12”; Practical Choice: “Inside Llewyn Davis”