The Best Picture race this year is one of the most unpredictable with no clear frontrunner emerging. Though, Get Out is definitely going to put a fight for the title.
Oscar voting begins this week, which means we finally know exactly what the voters might be considering as they cast their ballots. However, Best Picture remains the most murky category. There are still 4 or 5 contenders that have a clear path to winning. This year, more than any, the preferential ballot is going to make it extremely difficult to figure out what film is going to win. Unlike the past couple years, though ending in upsets, we knew generally what the top two films were going to be.
But to quickly refresh, here’s how the preferential ballot works. Instead of voting for their favorite film, voters are asked to rank all nine nominees in order of preference — their first place film should be there favorite and their last place film should be their least favorite. In the first round of voting, each ballot’s first place vote is counted. If no film gets 50% of the first place votes, the film with the least first place votes is eliminated and their second place film becomes their first place vote. So let’s say Darkest Hour received the least first place votes in the first round and is eliminated. If the voter with Darkest Hour in first place had Phantom Thread in second place, then Phantom Thread would get another vote added to its total.
This means that the Best Picture winner will be a film all the voters generally like — a consensus pick. However, with so many frontrunners, voting might last 5 or 6, and even, 7 rounds before coming up with a winner. So, below I break down the four strong contenders for Best Picture and the case for and against each of them winning.
Let’s start with the film that based on precursors looks like a Best Picture winner. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won Best Picture or the Best Picture equivalent at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs, received seven nominations including the rare double acting nomination in Supporting Actor, and is on track to win two acting awards. On paper, it seems like the strongest Best Picture contender even without a Best Director nomination, which certainly hurt its chances a lot. However, if any film is going to be hurt by the preferential ballot, it’s Three Billboards. Though it has its fervent fans, it also has its fervent detractors who point to the movie’s more problematic elements. Films like that tend to do well in precursors because they are voted on with a popular vote. However, with as many people ranking the film as their first and second place picks as much as their last pick, any support is essentially cancelled out.
On the other hand, The Shape of Water has both the chance to be helped and hurt by the preferential ballot. A lot of Oscar voters are going to put it towards the top of their ballot and a lot are going to put it towards the bottom. However, I think there’s also going to be a sizable amount of voters that put it in the middle, as well. Industry opinions on the movie range from love to appreciation to confusion. Having the breadth of placements can help if voting goes a lot of rounds, but hurts if it only goes 3 or 4. To win Best Picture this year, a film needs to consistently show up on the top half of ballots and almost no where on the lower parts of ballots.
I think two films are going to do that, which means that they’re most likely our two legitimate Best Picture frontrunners. Get Out is emerging as a popular choice among pundits since it has wide support, is well-viewed by voters and audiences, and a film that it seems everyone generally likes. However, the older sect of the Academy, according to some Oscar experts, have viewed that film as good, but not Best Picture worthy. Whether that means they’re going to rank it low on their ballot isn’t completely certain. That’s why I think that the dark horse contender this year is Dunkirk. Not only is it one of the most well-received movies of the year, it appeals to both the artier crowd and the older Academy voters who appreciate a war epic. Plus, it’s going to be a widely seen movie, which means, even if a voter didn’t see every movie nominated and only rank 5, Dunkirk has a good chance of being one of those 5. There’s a really strong chance that it upsets come Oscar night. However, if it does win, it’ll break a lot of long held beliefs among Oscar pundits. It doesn’t have a screenplay nomination, acting nomination, and it wasn’t nominated at the SAG awards. Those are a lot of statistics that would have fall for it to win. However, we’ve seen those statistics fail more recently. Anything can happen.
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So, who is going to win? At this point, I think this is Get Out’s race to lose. Universal has been putting a lot of weight behind it, it’s beloved by many and liked by most, and it should do well on the preferential ballot. In a time where Moonlight is the reigning Best Picture champ, anything is possible. Get Out may be an improbable winner, but it looks like it will go all the way.
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Dunkirk or The Shape of Water
Should Win: I always think this is a hard question to answer because I could just say my favorite movie of 2017, Call Me By Your Name, but I think Best Picture is a great way to represent the year in movies. In that case, Lady Bird is not only fantastic, it feels like a movie that is in and of our time. The same could be said for Get Out.
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.