I've been avoiding predicting this category like the plague. It is probably the hardest category to predict, because there is not even a semblance of a frontrunner. The top three contenders are neck and neck, and this race could really go either way.
First of all there is Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart). Her role in won Ellen Barkin a Tony and offers Roberts a lot strong and passionate speeches and scenes.
On the other hand, there is Allison Tolman (Fargo) that gives a very understated underdog performance that has been critically acclaimed. It also doesn't hurt that Fargo did extremely well in the nominations.
Then, there is Oscar-winner Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Coven) who was an early frontrunner for the trophy. With the anthology series over-performing in nominations, and Bates being joined by two additional cast members, logistics could be in her favor.
For now, I'm going to have Tolman out front. It's more of a hunch if anything, but I do think she has momentum going for her.
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1. Allison Tolman (Fargo)
2. Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Coven)
3. Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart)
4. Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Coven)
5. Ellen Burstyn (Flowers in the Attic)
6. Frances Conroy (American Horror Story: Coven)
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.