Leonardo DiCaprio, Bruce Dern, Matthew McConaughey, and Chiwetel Ejiofor all have a chance at the Oscar.
I'm calling that Best Actor is the most competitive category of the year. In any other year I would have been delighted by Christian Bale's nomination, but this year with the amount of talent I'm a little disappointed that he was nominated.
Also, in any other year, any of the other four actors nominated could have won and I would be happy, but this year they have made one of the most competitive categories in years.
There is honestly no indication of a winner. I know that it seems that Matthew McConaughey is in the lead and he won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics' Choice, but I honestly just can't see Oscar voters rallying behind him.
Chiwetel Ejiofor nearly dominated the early critics' awards and won the BAFTA, but 12 Years a Slave doesn't have the wide spread support anymore. I think that the movie has to be solidly in the lead for Best Picture for him to win.
Although “comedy” performances tend not to well here, Leonardo DiCaprio has quickly become one of Oscars biggest losers. He won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice for Best Comedy Actor, but it doesn't feel like there is an urgency to award him.
Lastly, there is the apple in a bunch of oranges. Bruce Dern is the veteran of the bunch, who delivers a quiet, but sweet performance. I think this leads me to believe he can take it. He didn't do well in the precursors, but he was always there, always nominated. He has also led a strong campaign.
UPDATE 2/17: This category is a shot in the dark. Right now, I think that shot is going to land on Dern, but I'm going to change that prediction a few more times from now till Oscar night.
UPDATE 2/27: I'm actually switching over to DiCaprio and I'm going to stay put there till Oscar night. Wishful thinking or an accurate hunch? I have no clue.
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Could Win: Literally anyone except Christian Bale
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street (That was a bravura performance. If it was any other actor in the role it would have ended up being caricature, but he grounded it.)
Should Have been Nominated: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
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