Best Actress is an open and shut category. Julianne Moore (Still Alice) was the early frontrunner, even when it was for a different film. Either way, whether she was in the running for Still Alice or A Map to the Stars, it looked like she would finally win her Oscar. She has everything: a pure Oscar bait role, a performance with fire and gravitas, and veteran status. I will be shocked if she doesn't win.
However, just for fun, let's try to figure out who's in second place. Reese Witherspoon (Wild) was another early frontrunner, who similarly has a bait role, and a performance with fire and gravitas. So, naturally she should be the next in line for the win. However, she just doesn't have the urgency that Moore has.
I think a contender that a lot of people were underestimating is Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl). Even with the complete Gone Girl snub, I think she had the most unique role of the nominees. It was a showy femme fatale role that the average Oscar voter would love.
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Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could Win: Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Should Win: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (off pure difficulty and execution)
Should have been nominated: Anne Dorval, Mommy
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.