We have an interesting situation in the category for Best Cinematography. The last five winners were Life of Pi, Hugo, Gravity, Avatar, and Inception. So, the easy prediction is for the visual effects driven film. However, we don't have one this year. Instead there's the single-take Birdman, black and white Ida, symmetrical The Grand Budapest Hotel, period drama Mr. Turner, and Roger Deakins' Unbroken.
The easy choice is last year's winner Emmanuel Lubezki's brilliant camera work and lighting work for Birdman. It's the closest thing we have to a visual effects nominee and is a frontrunner for Best Picture. It is also the most impressive cinematography of the group. Lubezki had to deal with multiple factors due to the single-take setup of the film. So, on degree of difficulty alone, he deserves to win.
However, Robert Yeoman, who is a long time collaborator of Wes Anderson, could sneak a win for The Grand Budapest Hotel. The film is in a solid position to take at least 3 craft categories, if not more. So cinematography could just be taken along in a sweep.
The only other contender that has to be spoken for is perennial nominee Roger Deakins for Unbroken. Angelina Jolie's film was mostly snubbed across the board, but Deakins always has a chance to win in this category, even if he never does.
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Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Birdman
Should've Been Nominated: Mommy. It may not be the most impressive, but it's the most expressive
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.