2015 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

This is going to be a hard category to get right. There are three extremely strong contenders that are all Best Picture nominees and all have their own strengths. The first possibility is Birdman. The film won the screenplay award at both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. However, the film was ineligible at the Writers Guild Awards. It's also one of the two frontrunners for Best Picture after surprise wins at the PGA and SAG awards. Then there's The Grand Budapest Hotel, which is the most “original” of the nominees, which sometimes is enough to win the award. It also surprisingly (for some) led the nominations along with Birdman with 9. Wes Anderson is also arguably overdue for an Oscar win, particularly for this category. Finally, Boyhood rounds out the category as the other Best Picture frontrunner. The screenplay is probably one of the least impressive feats in the film. However, if there is a Boyhood sweep, then this is definitely one of the categories that will be taken along with it. The other two nominees, Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler, are really taking the backseat here. However, if I had to pick a “fourth place” film is would be Nightcrawler.

Right now, I'm going to say that Birdman takes this award. Despite its ineligibility at WGA, it was solidly running through the precursor awards beforehand, and last year's winner for Best Adapted Screenplay, 12 Years a Slave, was also ineligible at WGA. If voters feel inclined to award Wes Anderson, then he may sneak a win here.

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Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should have been nominated: Enemy