I don't like changing my predictions too close to Oscar night. It tends to lead to unnecessary second guessing and almost always leads to no good. However, this year it looks like I'm going to be changing back and forth all the way up to Oscar night. This year is like no other for the Oscars. Never have we seen the precursors and nominations create such a stir among predictions. To properly analyze this category, we have to break it down by the top contenders:
Birdman: Inarritu's film was the perennial runner up, until it won the SAG award, PGA award, and DGA award in a surprising sweep. No film has ever won all three and not taken Best Picture at the Oscars. It also led in the nominations, which is not a requirement, but never hurts. However, it not only lost the BAFTA award, it only won a single award at the ceremony. BAFTA voters and the Academy have one of the biggest overlaps of all award voting groups, so the lack of support from the Brits is telling.
Boyhood: Linklater's film was the frontrunner from the beginning of the season. It pretty much romped through the critics awards and took Globes and Critics Choice. However, it took a huge hit when the guild awards came around. It also underperformed, if ever so slightly, in the nomination totals.
At this point, it's a coin toss. The smart thing to do is put your money on the early frontrunner rather than the late surge of another nominee. However, so many trends will be broken if either film wins. In addition to the reasons above, Birdman would be the first film since Ordinary People won in 1981 to win Best Picture without at least an editing nomination. I also can't see Birdman winning solely Picture, cinematography, and maybe director. However, if the precursors are any indication, then Boyhood is on rocky footing as well.
I'm landing on Birdman at this point, but expect that to change a few times. Maybe The Grand Budapest Hotel swoops in and shocks everyone.
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Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Whiplash
Should've Been Nominated: A Most Violent Year or Nightcrawler, there are tons of other deserving films though
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