Out of the three acting races at this year's Oscars, Best Supporting Actress is by far that hardest one to suss out. Unlike the last few years, there hasn't been one actress that has been consistently winning awards and that has the clear momentum that makes her the frontrunner for the Oscars. The critics awards had no consensus with winners. Kristen Stewart (“Clouds of Sils Maria”) ended up being the most consistent winner, however she was snubbed at the Oscars. Part of the lack of consensus could be due to the fact that two of the nominees this year have been nominated and won awards in the lead category. Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”) and Rooney Mara (“Carol”) have both been campaigned in supporting when in screen time and in plot their roles are clearly lead. In fact, Rooney Mara won Best Actress at the Cannes Film Festival over Cate Blanchett, who is nominated in lead. I guess when your character is the title of the movie, everyone else just supports you.
Clear category fraud and sleazy Oscar campaign tactics aside (we're looking at your Weinstein), Vikander has the advantage of having two successful movies that she has been nominated for and won for. She won at the Los Angeles Film Critics Awards for “Ex Machina” and at the Critics Choice Awards for “The Danish Girl.” She was also a double nominee at the Golden Globes. However, of the films the women are nominated, “The Danish Girl” is one of the least popular films, perhaps only being surpassed by “Steve Jobs” in unpopularity (although Kate Winslet has something else going for her, we'll discuss this later). Really, who actually liked “The Danish Girl”? Granted, she is the strongest aspect of the film.
Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”) is similar to Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”) in the Best Supporting Actor category in that the nomination was going to be her biggest hurdle. While she was nominated at the Golden Globes, she missed an important Screen Actors Guild nomination. Her performance is truly the apple in a bag of oranges. She is beaten to a pulp, abused, dragged around — she works for her Oscar. She has also been long ignored by the Oscars and can be seen as overdue. However, “The Hateful Eight” was widely ignored. The only other nomination it received was for its score.
The wild-card of the race is Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”). On her seventh nomination (and with one win under her belt), Winslet is the most decorated nominee of the bunch. With an odd Golden Globes win under her belt, she should theoretically be the frontrunner. However, the Globes seemed to have had a love affair with “Steve Jobs” — it won the combined screenplay category as wall — and Winslet could have just been taken along for the ride.
In the end, the only acting nominee that has little to no chance is Rachel McAdams (“Spotlight“). Despite being in the only best picture nominee of the bunch, her role is extremely understated and barely registers emotionally. If “Spotlight” wins Best Picture and takes an acting award with it, it's more likely to be Mark Ruffalo than McAdams.
What this race really boils down to is which nominee's positives outweighs their negatives. Mara has the most screen time and Cannes award for Best Actress under her belt, however she has a quiet performance that typically doesn't win in this category. Vikander is the breakout of the group with two successful movies, but will the unpopularity of “The Danish Girl” hurt her? Leigh has the big, bombastic performance that voters love, but her film and role are not terribly easy to watch. Winslet won the Globe and is an industry veteran in the hunt for her second win and although its been done, a second win has to feel like its imminent, and this year it's anything but. Lastly, we have McAdams who has a quiet role in the Best Picture nominee.
I'm going to go with Alicia Vikander for the win here. However, it is the least confident I am in an above the line category. Winslet or Leigh can easily steal this from her. Even Mara has an outside shot. This is truly going to be the category that is going to keep us guessing until the envelope is opened.
Check out all our 2016 Oscar predictions here!
* “If I had an Oscar ballot” pick
Rankings:
1. Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)
2. Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)*
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”)
4. Rooney Mara (“Carol”)
5. Rachel McAdams (“Spotlight”)
Should've been nominated: Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”), Rose Byrne (“Spy”)
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.