2016 Emmy Predictions: Drama Series

Five of last year’s Emmys’ Drama Series nominees should make it back in. Which one will be left off?

Drama Series is a category that probably won’t have a lot of movement from last year’s line-up. Of course, Mad Men is out of the way which opens up a spot, but barring a huge shock, at least five other nominees from last year should return.

Starting from the top, last year’s winner Game of Thrones is guaranteed to come back following a critically-acclaimed season. A win is also a strong possibility already. There isn’t a single contender that will have a rallying effect similar to the way that Game of Thrones had one last year when Breaking Bad left the race. However, the closest contender is looking to be Better Call Saul.

While Saul doesn’t have the heat that the original series had, it certainly has the critical support behind it. I can see the series going one of two ways. The first option is that it explodes with nominations picking up acting nods (likely in supporting actress, supporting actor, and guest actor) and breaking into the directing race. The other direction is that it receives generally the same nominations as last year and possibly dropping out of writing. If it goes the first route then they are in contention for the win. If it goes that latter, then there chances diminish.

After Saul, the most likely contender is Mr. Robot. I know it’s risky to predict a new show this high on the list. Sometimes it pans out like Homeland and sometimes it doesn’t like [insert show here]. However, the show has kept in the conversation all year with their wins at Critics’ Choice and the Globes. On top of that, the second season has been airing during voting, which renewed the conversation around the show. They’re looking to nab several nominations because of their smart submissions (they only submitted one episode for writing and directing) and cast (Malek and Slater have good chances in their categories). I’m not going to predict them for the win, but after Homeland’s surprise win for their first season there is a new sense that a hot new show is a threat.

Lastly, I think Homeland is pretty soundly in the running. I don’t think they’ll win, but there has been enough critical heft behind the show for it to reap another nomination.

After the top four, the next three become a bit murky. I can see all three easily getting back in, but I can also see any of the three dropping out. The least likely to go in my opinion is Downton Abbey. Despite slowly losing nominations, they’ve consistently been nominated for Drama Series and I doubt they will be dropped in their final season.

If you asked my a few months ago whether House of Cards was going to be nominated, I’d go as far as telling you that I think it could actually win. However, the buzz has completely gone away. Their one saving grace is that despite being dropped from both the writing and directing categories, they still hauled in a healthy number of nominations and two wins last year. Both of which were surprises.

The one show from last year’s line-up that I’m not as confident in saying will come back is Orange is the New Black. After a strong showing two years ago on the comedy side, last year they were cut down to three nominations. Though they did win in supporting actress, Uzo Aduba is such a popular actor that no one should have been surprised by her win. Looking at the possible trajectories, I can’t really see many that includes it in the line-up.

So let’s say Orange misses. Who replaces them?

Some pundits are betting on perennially ignored The Americans to finally make it in after getting a writing nomination last year. However, I think it may a be a bit too early in their rise to get a Drama Series nomination. Assuming they follow the Friday Night Lights trajectory, they should get acting nominations this year before finally getting a series nominations. That’s option one.

Option two is a more left field choice. WGN’s Underground has been critically lauded and is going to get a strong campaign behind it.

Lastly, Empire could make it in this year after being generally ignored last year save for a nomination for Taraji P. Henson. However, the Emmys are often a year behind so that buzz from the show last year may finally push it over the edge.

So, who do I think it will be? I think The Americans will do it. It’s between them and Orange. However, the Emmys rarely go to plan, which is why I think the latter missing is more likely than getting a nearly identical line-up to last year.

Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

The Americans
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones**
Homeland
House of Cards
Mr. Robot

**Predicted winner