Lead Actress in a Comedy Series is really the category that I feel is going to be the hardest to predict. There are easily 11 legitimate competitors for the six spots. It’s a wide open category with three of last year’s nominees not eligible this year. I really can’t see a way that there aren’t 7 or 8 nominees in this category with the new rules.
However, there are a few sure-fire candidates. Last year’s winner and four-time consecutive winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”) is sure to return, especially with the shows win in Comedy Series last year. Also assured to return is Amy Schumer (“Inside Amy Schumer”) who probably came thisclose to winning last year. It’s not surprising though considering the Academy tends to be a year or so behind the buzz. That’s why it took Tatiana Malany two years to break through in the Lead Actress in a Drama Series category. So, Schumer’s buzz could come to a head this year and get her the win.
I’m also pretty confident that Ellie Kemper (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”) will have a much easier time getting in this year after being snubbed last year despite the show nabbing four acting nominations.
The last three spots I can see being any arrangement of seven different contenders. However, with “Ghostbusters” and “The Boss” mixed with the fact that it’s the show’s last season, I think Melissa McCarthy (“Mike & Molly”) will probably get a goodbye hug. She seems to be the nominee that they throw in whenever there’s an open spot.
After her, I think that there is going to be some new faces in the category. Rachel Bloom (“Crazy Ex-Girlfriend”), who won the Globe and Critics Choice earlier this year (not that it matters), has some momentum behind her.
Conventional wisdom (or a sane person) would say that Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”) would get the nomination. However, I really think that “Black-ish” is going to surprise with a surge of nominations this year. That’s why I think Tracee Ellis Ross is going to make it in over Tomlin, Constance Wu (“Fresh Off the Boat”), and Anna Faris (“Mom”). Though, they could all easily make it in.
My Predictions:
Rachel Bloom, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend”
Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”***
Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly”
Tracee Ellis Ross, “Black-Ish”
Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer”
***Predicted Winner
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