Best Director has quickly become the category where the visionary filmmaker is honored. Ang Lee won for “Life of Pi” in 2013, Alfonso Cuarón for “Gravity” in 2014, and Alejandro G. Iñarritu for “Birdman” in 2015 (his film was the most visionary of the group, at least). However, this year we have the debacle of having two directors from visual effects heavy, high production films: George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”) and Alejandro G. Iñarritu (“The Revenant”).
Miller and his film nearly dominated all the critics awards leading up to the guilds, where the film stumbled. Iñarritu won the Globe, however there is a lot of precedent against him rather than for him. Only twice in the history of the Oscars has a director won Best Director consecutively — John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz. This does not lend well to an Iñarritu win.
If you take stats into consideration, the correlation between Best Picture and Best Director is an important one. Since the year 2000, the winner of Best Picture didn’t match up with Best Director only five times:
2001: Steven Soderbergh (“Traffic”) won director; “Gladiator” won picture
2003: Roman Polanski (“The Pianist”) won director; “Chicago” won picture
2006: Ang Lee (“Brokeback Mountain”) won director; “Crash” won picture
2013: Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”) won director; “Argo” won picture
2014: Alfonso Cuarón (“Gravity”) won director; “12 Years a Slave” won picture
So if the trend holds, it’s likely that the Best Picture winner also wins Best Director. We’re predicting “Spotlight” to take Best Picture, which gives Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”) the edge.
I think that we’re going to see another split year. If “Spotlight” takes Picture, what takes Director?
There is too much history going against Iñarritu. Even worse, I think voters are aware of the record and don’t want to see him join the likes of John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz. In that case, George Miller wins the award. However, the DGA is going to be extremely important here. I can foresee Adam McKay (“The Big Short”) upsetting there. Either way, whoever wins DGA will probably win the Oscar.
Check out all our 2016 Oscar predictions here!
*My “if I had an Oscar ballot” pick
Rankings:
1. George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)*
2. Alejandro G. Iñarritu (“The Revenant”)
3.Adam McKay (“The Big Short”)
4. Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”)
5. Lenny Abrahamson (“Room”)
Should’ve been nominated: Alex Garland (“Ex Machina”), Andrew Haigh (“45 Years”), & Denis Villeneuve (“Sicario”)
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.