Zootopia is the comfortable frontrunner in this category, however, Kubo and the Two Strings could pull off a surprise upset
While Best Animated Feature sounds like an open and shut category, there is actually room for an upset. But let's start at the bottom first. I think the only film that has absolutely zero chance of winning The Red Turtle. I simply think it's a movie that not enough people have seen. Plus, with a few exceptions, movies with large box office hulls and buzz with this category. So, The Red Turtle probably has to settle for a nomination in a competitive year.
After that, every nominee has some path to winning. Following their monster success with Frozen, which won Best Original Song and Best Animated Feature and becoming the highest-grossing movie in history, Disney had a more modest hit with Moana. Though it received stronger critical notices – it outscored Frozen on both Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic – I think it simply got stuck with a more competitive year in animation. However, animated movies with nominations in other categories tend to win, so that gives it an outside shot.
The surprising and unlikely dark horse of this category is My Life As A Zucchini made headlines when it ended up making it to the short list for the Best Foreign Language category. While it didn't get nominated, that shows that people have watched the movie and are paying attention. I think it could be a surprising twist in the category.
The biggest contender to this year's frontrunner is Kubo and the Two Strings (check out our review here!). It isn't the hit that the other contenders in this category are, but it has its rabid fans. Plus, it is the first movie to ever be nominated for both Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects. It is also only the second animated movie to be nominated for the latter category. It also got strong guild support with an unprecedented nomination at the Costume Designers Guild Awards and a win at the Visual Effects Society Awards. I think it might have the support to unseat the frontrunner.
Zootopia (check out our review here!) has been the consistent frontrunner this entire year and took the Producers Guild Award and Golden Globe, which often signals success in this category. Its timely story and insane box office make it a prime candidate in this category. Plus, despite premiering more than a year ago, it feels like its still being talked about. However, it has one startling statistic against it. Only one movie that premiered before May has won this category. That movie was Rango, a notoriously weak year for the category. Whether that is a statistic or a coincidence, I don't know. But an upset in this category would set a precedent.
Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!
Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Dark Horse: My Life As A Zucchini
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.