Best Director looks like a locked up category with Damien Chazelle becoming the youngest winner in history for La La Land.
Best Director is probably the easier of the major categories to predict at the Oscars. Even if Best Picture is a surprise — Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan or Crash over Brokeback Mountain — Best Director always goes the way that we believe it will go. The only year that we had a surprise is when Rob Marshall (Chicago) lost to Roman Polanski (The Pianist). Often, the best indicator for this award is the Directors Guild of America Award. Since 1970, the winner of this award and the winner of the Oscar for Best Director didn't match up five times. That's 5 out of 46. That means it's 90% accurate. So, that means that barring a huge upset, Damien Chazelle (La La Land) is probably going to be the winner. In addition to winning DGA, the Golden Globe, and multiple critics awards, his film has the most nominations of any movie this year and ties the Oscar record. That's particularly helpful because since switching to a preferential ballot in 2009, the winner of Best Director's film had the most nominations all but one time. The one time was when Michel Hazanavicius won for The Artist — it had the second most with 10 versus Hugo's 11. The only way I can seem him losing is because he is young and the Academy prefers its directors more seasoned. If he wins, he would be the youngest winner since 1931. Though, I'm pretty confident there isn't going to be an upset in this category.
If there was, it would be Barry Jenkins (Moonlight). His film is only second to La La Land in total nominations and is its rival in Best Picture. While he is likely going to win Adapted Screenplay, Moonlight is a director's movie. With its careful camera work and incredible performances, it would be the most logical place to honor Barry Jenkins. However, without a major award under his belt, it's unlikely he'll be able to take down Chazelle.
There is one dark horse contender that I can (unfortunately) see shocking. The parallels to the race in 2002 are quite shocking. Chicago, the last musical to win Best Picture, looked like it was going to have an easy win in Best Picture. Director Rob Marshall won the DGA and was expected to win at the Oscars. Instead, controversial veteran Roman Polanski won in a shocking upset for The Pianist, a World War II movie. Well, if La La Land is Chicago, then what is The Pianist? Well, another World War II movie is nominated and also has a controversial veteran director, Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge). I'm warning you, it could happen.
Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Could Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Dark Horse: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win: Chazelle or Jenkins
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.