2017 Oscar Predictions: Can “Hidden Figures” Upset “Moonlight” in Adapted Screenplay?

The race for Adapted Screenplay is a low-key competitive category. However, I think it's also prime for an upset. Moonlight has to watch its back.

Best Adapted Screenplay is a seemingly low-key category that is probably going to go the way we expect. However, I actually think it's among the most competitive of the night. I could make an argument for every nominee.

The clear frontrunner here is Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney for Moonlight. In addition to being a Best Picture frontrunner, they also won the BAFTA Scripter Award, which has predicted the winner of this category for the past six years. Because of the possibility of a La La Land sweep, this may be the only category to award director Barry Jenkins for his work. I think that they are the safe frontrunner, but arguments could easily be made for all the other contenders in the category. It's almost impossible to do a proper ranking.

The nominee that I think is most likely to upset, though, is Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi for Hidden Figures. The movie is a crowd pleaser and popular with the industry and voters, which is especially evident after their SAG Best Ensemble upset. If voters choose to spread the wealth, this is the one category that Hidden Figures is nominated in that they could vote for it. It's unlikely to win either of its other nominations — Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress. If you're looking for an upset, it's this.

Before nominations came out and the season was officially in full swing, it looked like the momentum was going for Eric Heisserer for Arrival. This was, of course, before two bigger contenders came out — Hidden Figures and one I will mention shortly. While the act of adapting the short story The Story of Your Life to this complex sci-fi drama was an incredible feat, its genius might have gone over the heads of the voters the same way the movie might have. However, if voters like Arrival enough, there is certainly a chance that it could upset.

The other nominee I alluded to is Luke Davies for Lion. It looks like Lion is one of those mid-success nominees that skirts by the Oscars with no wins. Think Brooklyn from last year. However, I think it has a strong in this category after winning at the BAFTAs. The only reason I think that it's less likely to upset than Hidden Figures is because I think it has a chance at upsetting in Cinematography and Supporting Actor, which might make a win in this category less urgent.

The wild card is really August Wilson for Fences. His posthumous nomination is a rarity, plus his name is being constantly thrown around by Denzel Washington and Viola Davis, which is powerful, especially when they're said during an acceptance speech. However, plays rarely win in this category. Whether it's because the act of adapting from stage to screen isn't as impressive, I don't know, but it's a strong statistic to overcome.

If I had to put money on it, Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney have this locked up. But there's also this sneaking suspicion that this is a prime category for an upset. There are a lot of strong nominees. I'm going to say Moonlight takes it. But watch out for Hidden Figures or Lion for the upset.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCarney, Moonlight
Could Win: Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Dark Horse: Luke Davies, Lion
Should Win: Eric Heisserer, Arrival