La La Land could continue its Oscar sweep in Best Cinematography, but Lion and Arrival have a chance at upsetting.
Best Cinematography seemed like a shut category until Greg Fraiser (Lion) upset frontrunner Linus Sandgren (La La Land) at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards. Even though the group only predicts the Oscar winner about half of the time, it showed that La La Land isn't infallible. While Sandgren maintains its frontrunner status — he won the BAFTA in this category — he is still the best bet to win. In the last ten years, the winner of the BAFTA repeated at the Oscars seven times. While that isn't the most solid statistic, it's enough to pay attention to.
However, the beautiful cinematography in Lion is still a dark horse for the win. There is another possibility as well. Sci-Fi movies tend to do well in this category. Just look at the upsets by Avatar and Inception a few years back. That means that Bradford Young (Arrival) could sneak in. Plus, his work is easily the most epic of the group, which is often the key to winning Best Cinematography. Plus, he is the first black cinematographer to be nominated in this category, which is a great, yet sad that we had to wait this long. Many voters are ticking the boxes off for people of color, so this could give him an edge.
If I had my vote, I'd give it to James Laxton (Moonlight) and his singular cinematography. He not only lights his actors beautifully, the composition of his shots are gorgeous and emotive. Sandgren would be a worthy winner, but Laxton truly deserves this prize.
Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!
Will Win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
Could Win: Bradford Young, Arrival
Dark Horse: Greg Fraiser, Lion
Should Win: James Laxton, Moonlight
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.