2017 Oscar Predictions: Original Screenplay is Down to “Manchester by the Sea” and “La La Land”

Best Original Screenplay is a tight race between Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) and Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) pulled off an upset at the WGA Awards. However, he is competing in the Adapted Screenplay race, which he should win. That leaves two movies to compete over Best Original Screenplay. From the beginning of the season, Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) was the frontrunner for the Oscar. That was until he lost the Golden Globe to Damien Chazelle (La La Land). While there isn’t exactly a perfect correlation between the two categories, they do often match up. That bodes well for Chazelle. However, one statistic going against him is that it’s been more than 75 years since a musical won a screenplay award. Even Best Picture winner Chicago lost the award. While it’s rare, I think he’s very much in this race. But, I’m going to give Lonergan the thin edge to win. With Casey Affleck on wobbly territory in Best Actor, this will be the only place to award the film, which has its fans.

If there is an upset, it could be Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water) taking the prize. In addition to penning Sicario last year, Sheridan’s newest film just premiered at Sundance, which could give him a higher profile. Plus, lovers of Hell or High Water, which there a lot of, will want to award it somewhere. Its screenplay is easily its strongest aspect. So, if you’re filling out your work’s Oscar ballot, go with Lonergan. But if you’re going big, then Sheridan could be your ticket.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Dark Horse: Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Should Win: Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water