The 75th Annual Golden Globe Awards are on Sunday, January 7th. They are the first major awards ceremony of this unpredictable awards season. Although the Golden Globes aren’t seen as an Oscar predictor, they can give a boost to films already in the hunt for Oscar. This year, Guillermo Del Toro’s fantasy-romance The Shape of Water led with 7 nominations (see the full list of nominees here) and will be the favorite coming into the ceremony. Check out our predictions in all the motion picture categories below!
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name
Pretty much any nominee in this category could end up winning for any number of reasons, but the foreign voting body that makes up the HFPA will most likely skew towards Guillermo Del Toro’s The Shape of Water, which led the nominations. Since this is the earliest major ceremony, the winner of this category tends to be the Oscar frontrunner at the time, even if that film doesn’t ultimately win — Moonlight, 12 Years A Slave, Boyhood. That means it has to be a film that is in wide release or had already had its wide release. That narrows it down to two — the other is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. However, the quirky tone and less US-centric themes will help it appeal to the HFPA.
Will Win: Lady Bird
Could Win: Get Out
Should Win: Lady Bird
This race is Lady Bird vs. Get Out. Both movies are Oscar frontrunners and have a strong consistent buzz around them, which is most important when it comes to the Golden Globes. However, after Get Out was controversially deemed eligible as a comedy and snubbed in the screenplay category — both films missed out on director nominations — Lady Bird feels like a more concrete frontrunner. Though leave it to the Golden Globes to nominate something controversially, then give it the win — The Martian is the most recent example. Get Out is still in this race, but it looks like Lady Bird‘s to lose.
Will Win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Could Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
With Ronan in the comedy category, this is Hawkins vs. McDormand. Movies tend to sweep at the Globes, which gives Hawkins the edge.
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Could Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Though Oldman is the frontrunner, I see the Globes going for the buzzier Chalamet.
Will Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Could Win: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Will Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
While every category so far has been a toss-up, this is the one that I feel confident in predicting. Ronan is the Oscar frontrunner and in the likely winner for Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical. The Golden Globes love sweeps, so she should be swept along.
Will Win: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Could Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Franco and Kaluuya are the two nominees with the best shot at Oscar nominations, which automatically puts them in the top two spots. Franco has gotten more individual acclaim, which will most likely carry him over to a win. Plus, the Golden Globes love to see a movie star on their stage.
Will Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Could Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Like her co-star, Metcalf should easily coast to victory.
Will Win: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Could Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Should Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Like I said before, leave it to the Golden Globes to pat themselves on the back for their own out of left field nominee. Since they obviously really loved All the Money in the World, it’s natural they’d award its buzziest aspect. Christopher Plummer’s last-minute entry into the film is going to be the story that pushes him over the edge over Oscar-frontrunner Dafoe.
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Could Win: Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Del Toro should win this prize along with the motion picture category, but again, don’t put it past the Golden Globes to award Ridley Scott.
Will Win: Martin McDonough, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Guillermo Del Toro and Vannessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Should Win: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Will Win: Coco
Could Win: The Breadwinner
Should Win: Coco
Will Win: First They Killed My Father
Could Win: The Square
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: The Post
Should Win: Phantom Thread
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