2018 Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actress is probably the most competitive acting category at the Oscars, even though Allison Janney has emerged as the frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars this year is a battle of the TV titans. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), an Emmy winner for Roseanne, and Allison Janney (I, Tonya), an Emmy winner for The West Wing and Mom, have been going head to head all season. Metcalf essentially swept the critics’ awards, but once the televised awards came, Janney started winning. However, I, Tonya has been a divisive movie. The fact that it couldn’t crack Best Picture or Best Orignal Screenplay is evidence of that. On the other hand, Lady Bird is a Best Picture frontrunner, and can even pull off a win.

However, Janney has the more traditional scene-stealing Oscar role in the vein of Mo’nique in Precious or Melissa Leo in The Fighter. Though, Metcalf certainly has winners who have had performances similar to hers — Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. While Janney’s performance is bigger, Metcalf has her moments and comes off more empathetic. I think it’s more of a tossup than people think.

There isn’t much room for an upset, but if there was one it could come from one of two contenders. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) has been the most consistent nominee along with Janney and Metcalf. Though she hasn’t won anything, she would be a way to honor Mudbound, which was certainly popular based on nominations, and she was also nominated for Best Original Song, which gives her added visibility. However, that could also hurt her chances since voters have another category to honor her.

Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) was one of the most surprising nominations in any category. And Phantom Thread overperformed, including nominations in Best Director and Best Picture. She could pull a Marcia Gay Harden when she won Best Supporting Actress for Pollack without any major nominations.

At this point, I’d still give Janney the edge. She won all the right awards, is beloved in the industry, and is campaigning. However, I, Tonya is divisive and her character is truly an antagonist with no redeeming qualities. Even Mo’nique had a redemption scene. Plus, Lady Bird is going to be a popular movie at the Oscars. It’s going to be a lot closer than most people think.

Check out all our 2018 Oscar Predictions!

Current Predictions (2/1/18):

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
4. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water