Awards

2019 Golden Globes Predictions — Film

The Golden Globes, the first televised awards of the season, are this Sunday. Here are our predictions for every film category.

The first major awards show of the season, the Golden Globes, is this Sunday! Vice leads all films—drama and musical or comedy—with 6 nominations including Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy.

Not far behind is Oscar favorites The Favourite (with nominations for all three leading actresses), Green Book, and A Star is Born (including nominations for Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper).

If our predictions are right, Vice and A Star is Born will lead with 3 wins apiece.


Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama

The nominees:

  • Glenn Close, The Wife
  • Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
  • Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
  • Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Will Win: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Could Win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Should Win: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

With her main Oscar rivals Olivia Colman (The Favourite) and Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) in the Comedy or Musical category, Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) has an easy path to the win.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama

The nominees:

Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

The Golden Globes love a musical performance, and this category has two—the reason they're not in the comedy or musical category is because the studios opted to submit the films as dramas. This race is a toss-up between Rami Malek's energetic portrayal of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody and Bradley Cooper's southern drenched alcoholic country star in A Star is Born.

The Globes—unlike most critics—loved Bohemian Rhapsody, so I think Malek has the edge.

Best Motion Picture — Drama

The nominees:

Will Win: A Star is Born

Could Win: BlacKkKlansman

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Though it's been a bit dormant during critics season, this is A Star is Born's chance to shine. Plus, the Golden Globes always go with the Oscar frontrunner. If there is an upset, 's BlacKkKlansman—it overperformed in nominations—is the most likely to pull it off.

Lady Gaga could win Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama at the Golden Globes for A Star is Born.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical

The nominees:

  • Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
  • Olivia Colman, The Favourite
  • Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
  • Charlize Theron, Tully
  • Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Will Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Could Win: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Should Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

It's great to see Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) in here. But this race is going to be between Oscar favorites. The Golden Globes love a musical performance—see above—so Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) should be the likely winner. However, Olivia Colman's towering performance in The Favourite will deservedly win.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical

The nominees:

  • Christian Bale, Vice
  • Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
  • Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
  • Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
  • John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

Will Win: Christian Bale, Vice

Could Win: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Should Win: N/A

This is Christian Bale's category to lose for his performance as Dick Cheney in Vice. The Globes loved the movie—it led all films in nominations—and Bale definitely gives the loudest performance.

Crazy Rich Asians is nominated for Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy and Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes.

Best Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical

The nominees:

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Green Book

Should Win: The Favourite

Vice led all films—comedy and drama—in nominations with six. However, after receiving some backlash and negative reviews, it seems to be out of the running. That leaves the race a toss-up between Oscar favorites The Favourite and Green Book. After nominations I'd give it to Green Book, but now momentum seems to be swinging towards The Favourite.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

The nominees:

Will Win: Amy Adams, Vice

Could Win: , If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Regina King was the Oscar frontrunner for her emotional performance in If Beale Street Could Talk before she was snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild. She still has a shot, but Golden Globes favorite Amy Adams will add a third trophy to her mantle for her performance as Lynne Cheney in Vice.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

The nominees:

Will Win: , Green Book

Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Should Win: Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Even though he won the Oscar and nearly every other award for Best Supporting Actor in 2016 for Moonlight, Mahershala Ali lost at the Golden Globes. They're probably going to use this year as a do-over.

Best Motion Picture — Animated

The nominees:

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Could Win: Incredibles 2

Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has been universally praised as one of the best animated films ever made and a revitalization of the superhero genre—including by me. It has the momentum and should win here. But Pixar rarely falters. Incredibles 2 could upset.

Best Motion Picture — Foreign Language

The nominees:

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: N/A

Should Win: Shoplifters

Though I'm biased towards Shoplifters, it's going to be hard to beat Oscar frontrunner Roma.

Best Director

The nominees:

  • Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
  • Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
  • Peter Farrelly, Green Book
  • Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
  • Adam McKay, Vice

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Could Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Bradley Cooper has had one of the most successful—critically and commercially—debut films ever with A Star is Born. However, Alfonso Cuarón will probably win for his technical achievement in Roma.

Best Screenplay

The nominees:

  • The Favourite
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Green Book
  • Vice
  • Roma

Will Win: Vice

Could Win: The Favourite

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Because of how popular Vice seems to be with Golden Globes voters, I wouldn't be surprised if it wins Best Screenplay easily. The Favourite seems like the most likely alternate. Though, Roma has a solid shot.

Golden Globe nominee If Beale Street Could Talk could bring Barry Jenkins his second Best Motion Picture — Drama win.

Best Original Song

The nominees:

  • “Requiem for a Private War” (Annie Lennox), A Private War
  • “Shallow” (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt) A Star is Born
  • “All the Stars” (Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Sounwave, Al Shux), Black Panther
  • “Girl in the Movies” (Dolly Parton, Linda Perry), Dumplin'
  • “Revelation” (Jónsi, Troye Sivan, Leland), Boy Erased

Will Win: “Shallow”

Could Win: N/A

Should Win: “Shallow”

Sorry, all. “Shallow” is unstoppable.

Best Original Score

The nominees:

  • A Quiet Place
  • Black Panther
  • First Man
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mary Poppins Returns

Will Win: Black Panther

Could Win: First Man

Should Win: First Man

Karl Delossantos

Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.

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