Best Actor still doesn't have a clear single frontrunner. Critics season was ruled by Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, but he missed nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, which doesn't bode well for his campaign. At the top of the list are three actors with very legitimate shots to win. Here are the contenders:
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Rami Malek's performance as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody has been almost universally praised despite the film's mostly negative reviews and the controversy around its director. However, Bohemian Rhapsody is clearly loved by the industry than critics.
Rami Malek managed to win the Golden Globe over Bradley Cooper — who was in contention for A Star is Born — despite a very close race. However, I'm not sure the Oscar voting body will embrace his performance the same way.
The Oscars love to nominate Bradley Cooper — he was nominated three years in a row for Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. However, he's yet to win. I think that's going to help him a lot. Especially with Malek going in as a first-time nominee and his other competitor Christian Bale (Vice) already a winner.
The other thing that will help him is the general love for A Star is Born. As the director, screenwriter, and producer, they'll want to give him some love. And it feels like they might do it in Best Actor.
On paper, Christian Bale's performance as Dick Cheney in Vice is one that wins Best Actor. It's a transformative performance of a real-life figure — in the usual fashion, Bale put on extra weight for the role — which has won everyone from Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) to last year's winner Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) the Oscar.
However, unlike those two actors, Bale is playing a villain and an incredibly unlikeable figure. Granted, the Adam McKay film tries to portray Cheney in a negative light. There's also the issue of Bale being a relatively recent winner and lacking the narrative for a second win.
Viggo Mortensen would have had the perfect overlooked veteran narrative — like Glenn Close in Best Actress — to win him the Oscar for Green Book. However, there are two things preventing him. First, the movie is divisive, particularly about his character. Second, Mortensen has made some… controversial comments.
The movie's popularity and industry goodwill will push him to a nomination, but a win is off the table.
BlacKkKlansman has been one of the few consistencies throughout awards season, so it's only right that its lead actor is nominated. I was skeptical of John David Washington's — son of Denzel — chances despite his Golden Globe nomination — there are effectively 10 slots at the Globes. Then he got a SAG nomination. I think that sealed it for him.
Ethan Hawke essentially ruled the critics' awards for his performance in First Reformed. However, his snub at the Globes and SAG along with the movie's lack of buzz — even a screenplay nomination seems out of reach — are going to make it hard for him to get a nomination.
That being said, there's still a chance. The Academy might like the movie more than the guilds and Globes and A24 has proven itself an award juggernaut.
First Man has pretty much fallen out of the awards conversation — except for Claire Foy in Best Supporting Actress. However, Ryan Gosling still has an inkling of a shot for his portrayal of Neil Armstrong.
Though it's a quiet performance — the Academy tends to like his louder performances like Half Nelson and La La Land — it's certainly impactful. If First Man has a resurgence he can slip in.
Willem Dafoe got thisclose to winning his first Oscar for The Florida Project but ultimately lost to Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. And while on paper his performance as Vincent Van Gogh seems like an Oscar-friendly role, the movie is definitely artsier than your typical biopic.
Allegedly, The Old Man & the Gun is screen legend Robert Redford's final film performance. We'll see if that holds. However, that could push him to a farewell nomination.
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