Best Supporting Actor seems to be the most locked acting categories as Mahershala Ali has swept every televised acting prize including the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, and Critics Choice. However, I think there is room for an upset.
Here are my current rankings:
Check out all our 2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress
Even though Green Book has been marred by controversy, the one person involved with the film that seems to have gotten out unscathed is Ali. After waltzing through the precursors, he is the clear favorite to win even though he won just two years ago for Moonlight in this category. Plus, it’s a place where voters who liked Green Book can honor it without any of the people involved in the controversies.
However, I think Ali winning so recently is going to hurt his chances more than people think. Whether people don’t vote for him because of it or they vote for someone else thinking he has this on lock, there might be a block of voters who go elsewhere.
The smart money would be on Sam Elliott for his small, but impactful performance in A Star is Born. After snubs in Best Director and Best Film Editing, the film has been on the ropes for its Best Picture chances — it could go home with just one award for Best Original Song. Voters looking for an above-the-line place to honor could easily go to Elliott. He’s an industry legend on his first nomination and a win could be seen as a lifetime achievement award.
Sam Rockwell’s performance as George W. Bush is an impressive imitation in Viceand Adam Driver is BlacKkKlansman’s sole acting nomination. However, my money for an upset is on Richard E. Grant for Can You Every Forgive Me?.
He swept the critics awards and has launched a homegrown social media campaign that will charm the socks off just about anyone. Although his movie only received two other nominations — Best Actress for Melissa McCarthy and Best Adapted Screenplay — I could see there being passionate support for his performance.
He has the same industry veteran narrative as Elliott and has a good chance at upsetting Ali at the BAFTAs. If he does, the Oscar could be next.
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