Despite the mess that is the 2019 Oscars, it is refreshing to have a season that feels unpredictable. Best Picture is still up in the air as is Best Supporting Actress while there is room for upsets in nearly every category. As a lifelong Oscar fan, it’s always more excited to not know who’s going to win come Sunday night.
Here are my predictions in ever category:
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: Roma or Green Book
Should Win: Roma or Black Panther
I’m taking a big swing in this category. While BlacKkKlansman hasn’t won a major prize, it was nominated every where it needed to be. People love and respect Spike Lee. I think this is going to do really well on the preferential ballot. As long as Roma or Green Book don’t win on a first round then I think this is your Best Picture winner.
The nominees:
Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Could Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Should Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Glenn Close will finally end her 37-year losing streak when she wins her first Oscar for The Wife. There is the *tiniest* chance that BAFTA winner Olivia Coleman wins for her performance Queen Ann in The Favourite.
The nominees:
Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Could win: Christian Bale, Vice
Should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Although Christian Bale won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards for his performance as Dick Cheney in Vice, I think the real challenger to clear frontrunner Rami Malek is Bradley Cooper. For better or worse, he’s been in the news a lot and if voters want to award A Star is Born outside of Best Original Song, this would be the place to do it.
Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Could win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Should win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Should have been nominated: Cynthia Erivo, Bad Times at the El Royale
A lot of pundits have been comparing this race to 2015’s Supporting Actor race where Mark Rylance upset odds-on favorite Sylvester Stallone. Regina King has taken the same awards path as Stallone for her role in If Beale StreetCould Talk — winning the Globe and Critics Choice, but not being nominated by SAG and BAFTA.
If this scenario played out, then BAFTA winner Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) would be the Oscar winner. However, the big difference is that King is loved by the industry while Stallone has been plagued by stories of bad behavior. Plus, Weisz — a Brit herself — has never a BAFTA despite being an Oscar winner. I think King wins this by a hair — or should I say wig.
Will win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Could win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Should win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should have been nominated: Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
The acting category with the most room for an upset is Best Supporting Actor. Mahershala Ali has swept every single precursor — including the Globe and BAFTA, which he didn’t even win for Moonlight. However, Richard E. Grant has been working the campaign trail — on and offline.
Ali might seem like such a lock that voters go elsewhere or think that he won too recently.
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Could win: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Should have been nominated: Ari Aster, Hereditary
There’s a small chance Spike Lee wins his much overdue Best Director Oscar for BlacKkKlansman, but this race is all but called for Alfonso Cuarón.
Will win: The Favourite
Could win: Green Book
Should win: The Favourite
Should have been nominated: Eighth Grade
After losing at the WGA Awards, the fate for Green Book seems to be sealed here. The Favourite should generate enough love with its 10 nominations to pull off a win here.
Will win: BlacKkKlansman
Could win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should have been nominated: Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me? winning at the WGA Awards has pushed above Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk in the “could win” category. It’s all for naught, though, as Spike Lee should finally win his first Oscar for BlacKkKlansman.
While I wasn’t impressed with Cold War as a whole, the cinematography was outright breathtaking — it could spoil. It also won the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Best Cinematography. But that might actually indicate it won’t win — just 44% of winners repeat at the Oscars. BAFTA winner Roma will probably be the 8th film in a row to win both prizes. Although, funny enough, the last movie to win at the BAFTAs and lose at the Oscars was black-and-white film The Artist.
Will win: Roma
Could win: Cold War
Should win: Cold War
Should have been nominated: If Beale Street Could Talk
This is one of the hardest categories to predict this year. Truly, any of the nominees could win. Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite won at the ACE Eddie Awards, Vice won at BAFTA, and Green Book and BlacKkKlansman are strong Best Picture contenders.
Going by the rule that the most editing wins, Vice should win. However, we said this about Adam McKay’s last movie The Big Short in 2015 — it ultimately lost to Mad Max: Fury Road at the Oscars. This is a coin flip. I’m going with Bohemian Rhapsody extremely unsure.
Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could win: Vice
Should win: The Favourite
Should have been nominated: Widows
The Costume Designers Guild gives out three motion picture awards. And, of course, the two frontrunners in this category both won. Black Panther won Sci-Fi/Fantasy category while The Favourite won the Period category. While the period film usually wins, two fantasy movies won in recent years: Mad Max: Fury Road and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them.
On top of that, Black Panther won the Critics Choice Award, which has predicted the winner of this category 8 of the 9 years it has existed.
Will win: Black Panther
Could win: The Favourite
Should win: Black Panther
Should have been nominated: A Simple Favor or Crazy Rich Asians
I’m pretty confident that Black Panther and The Favourite are going to split Production Design and Costume Design. But I’m not completely sure which way they’ll split. I also don’t think Black Panther will go home empty handed, so I’m gonna predict it here too.
Will win: Black Panther
Could win: The Favourite
Should win: Roma
Should have been nominated: Hereditary
After frontrunner Justin Hurwitz was snubbed for his work in La La Land, the category was blown wide open. While If Beale Street Could Talk is the clear critics pick, it’s rare to win this category without a Best Picture nomination — it has happened only twice since 2000.
This race is Black Panther versus BlacKkKlansman. Spike Lee’s longtime collaborator Terence Fletcher should win this by a hair.
Will win: BlacKkKlansman
Could win: Black Panther
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should have been nominated: First Man
This race is Avengers: Infinity War versus First Man. The big-budget blockbuster versus the practical effect driven drama. Typically the more practical driven film wins, so I’m going with First Man even though Infinity War should win for Thanos alone.
Will win: First Man
Could win: Avengers: Infinity War
Should win: Avengers: Infinity War
Roma has this category on lock. There’s an outside chance Cold War takes it if voters want to spread the love.
Will win: Roma
Could win: Cold War
Should win: Roma or Shoplifters
We’re in the shallow now.
Will win: “Shallow” from A Star is Born
Could win: “All the Stars” from Black Panther
Should win: “Shallow” from A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody won the guild and musicals always do well here. This is a slam dunk.
Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could win: A Star is Born
Should win: Roma
Should’ve been nominated: Hereditary
Bohemian Rhapsody won two awards from the guild while A Quiet Place won one. On the other hand, First Man is a classic winner in this category. Unfortunately, I think Bohemian wins here too.
Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could win: First Man
Should win: A Quiet Place
Should’ve been nominated: Annihilation
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