The Golden Globes, the first televised awards of the season, are this Sunday. Here are our predictions for every film category.
The first major awards show of the season, the Golden Globes, is this Sunday! Vice leads all films—drama and musical or comedy—with 6 nominations including Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy.
Not far behind is Oscar favorites The Favourite (with nominations for all three leading actresses), Green Book, and A Star is Born (including nominations for Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper).
If our predictions are right, Vice and A Star is Born will lead with 3 wins apiece.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
The nominees:
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
- Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Will Win: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Could Win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Should Win: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
With her main Oscar rivals Olivia Colman (The Favourite) and Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) in the Comedy or Musical category, Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) has an easy path to the win.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
The nominees:
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
- Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
The Golden Globes love a musical performance, and this category has two—the reason they’re not in the comedy or musical category is because the studios opted to submit the films as dramas. This race is a toss-up between Rami Malek’s energetic portrayal of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody and Bradley Cooper’s southern drenched alcoholic country star in A Star is Born.
The Globes—unlike most critics—loved Bohemian Rhapsody, so I think Malek has the edge.
Best Motion Picture — Drama
The nominees:
Will Win: A Star is Born
Could Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Though it’s been a bit dormant during critics season, this is A Star is Born’s chance to shine. Plus, the Golden Globes always go with the Oscar frontrunner. If there is an upset, Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman—it overperformed in nominations—is the most likely to pull it off.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
The nominees:
- Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
- Olivia Colman, The Favourite
- Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
- Charlize Theron, Tully
- Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Will Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Could Win: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Should Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
It’s great to see Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) in here. But this race is going to be between Oscar favorites. The Golden Globes love a musical performance—see above—so Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) should be the likely winner. However, Olivia Colman’s towering performance in The Favourite will deservedly win.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
The nominees:
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
- Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
- John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Will Win: Christian Bale, Vice
Could Win: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Should Win: N/A
This is Christian Bale’s category to lose for his performance as Dick Cheney in Vice. The Globes loved the movie—it led all films in nominations—and Bale definitely gives the loudest performance.
Best Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
The nominees:
- Crazy Rich Asians
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Vice
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Green Book
Should Win: The Favourite
Vice led all films—comedy and drama—in nominations with six. However, after receiving some backlash and negative reviews, it seems to be out of the running. That leaves the race a toss-up between Oscar favorites The Favourite and Green Book. After nominations I’d give it to Green Book, but now momentum seems to be swinging towards The Favourite.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
The nominees:
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Claire Foy, First Man
- Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone, The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Will Win: Amy Adams, Vice
Could Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Regina King was the Oscar frontrunner for her emotional performance in If Beale Street Could Talk before she was snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild. She still has a shot, but Golden Globes favorite Amy Adams will add a third trophy to her mantle for her performance as Lynne Cheney in Vice.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
The nominees:
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
- Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
- Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell, Vice
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Should Win: Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Even though he won the Oscar and nearly every other award for Best Supporting Actor in 2016 for Moonlight, Mahershala Ali lost at the Golden Globes. They’re probably going to use this year as a do-over.
Best Motion Picture — Animated
The nominees:
- Incredibles 2
- Isle of Dogs
- Mirai
- Ralph Breaks the Internet
- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Could Win: Incredibles 2
Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has been universally praised as one of the best animated films ever made and a revitalization of the superhero genre—including by me. It has the momentum and should win here. But Pixar rarely falters. Incredibles 2 could upset.
Best Motion Picture — Foreign Language
The nominees:
- Capernaum
- Girl
- Never Look Away
- Roma
- Shoplifters
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: N/A
Should Win: Shoplifters
Though I’m biased towards Shoplifters, it’s going to be hard to beat Oscar frontrunner Roma.
Best Director
The nominees:
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Peter Farrelly, Green Book
- Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
- Adam McKay, Vice
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Could Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Bradley Cooper has had one of the most successful—critically and commercially—debut films ever with A Star is Born. However, Alfonso Cuarón will probably win for his technical achievement in Roma.
Best Screenplay
The nominees:
- The Favourite
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Green Book
- Vice
- Roma
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: The Favourite
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Because of how popular Vice seems to be with Golden Globes voters, I wouldn’t be surprised if it wins Best Screenplay easily. The Favourite seems like the most likely alternate. Though, Roma has a solid shot.
Best Original Song
The nominees:
- “Requiem for a Private War” (Annie Lennox), A Private War
- “Shallow” (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt) A Star is Born
- “All the Stars” (Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Sounwave, Al Shux), Black Panther
- “Girl in the Movies” (Dolly Parton, Linda Perry), Dumplin’
- “Revelation” (Jónsi, Troye Sivan, Leland), Boy Erased
Will Win: “Shallow”
Could Win: N/A
Should Win: “Shallow”
Sorry, all. “Shallow” is unstoppable.
Best Original Score
The nominees:
- A Quiet Place
- Black Panther
- First Man
- Isle of Dogs
- Mary Poppins Returns
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: First Man
Should Win: First Man
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.