5 Things We Learned About the Oscar Race

 

With the critics awards ramping up, the Oscar race is beginning to take shape. This year has been an oddity with the lack of a consensus regarding many categories. However,

Boyhood is the undisputed frontrunner for Best Picture
With wins in New York, Boston, Los Angeles, and Britain under its belt, Boyhood is now the clear frontrunner for Best Picture, if we didn't already know that. Despite its high acclaim, deafening buzz, and urgency, some pundits just couldn't wrap their minds around the fact that the film is the frontrunner. Maybe their romp across the early critics awards will change their minds.

J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette are looking solid as well
Two other consistent winners so far have been J.K Simmons (Whiplash) and Patricia Arquette (Boyhood). The supporting races tend to be where we see one winner sweep through the awards season, so this is not a surprise. Unlike Oprah last year for The Butler, who had similar early buzz in the category, Arquette started her streak early on with the New York Film Critics Circle and continued her romp from there with a slight hitch in Boston. However, what is most interesting is that she won in Los Angeles for Best Actress. Although it was decided early on that she would campaign in supporting, there were still some outliers who thought she would be best suited in lead. This is going to be the one hinderance to her campaign. J.K. Simmons is pretty much a lock at this point. He plays the loud flamboyant villain role in a film receiving Best Picture buzz and on top of that, he's a veteran. He has only dropped one race to Ed Norton, but it's looking like he might be our one lock.

Michael Keaton might not be the absolute lock we think he is
From the beginning of the derby season we saw Michael Keaton get out of the gate quickly and stay out front for his performance in Birdman, however in what should have been easy wins Keaton lost. He dropped NYFCC to Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Los Angeles to Tom Hardy (Locke), and New York Online to Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything). He did have wins in Boston and NBR, but he may not be the lock we originally thought he was. What he does have going for him is that Hardy is a long shot for a nom and Spall is teetering on the edge. Redmayne is going to be his main competitor and the big awards like SAG, the Globes, and BFCA are going to be his battleground.

We have to look out for A Most Violent Year
The Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain film has won a single award for Best Picture so far this season, but that award means I'm throwing it into the Best Picture race right now. Why? Because the last time the National Board of Review winner for Best Picture wasn't nominated at the Oscars was 2000. That's a long streak and one that I'm not going to ignore until it is broken. Even then, we haven't seen the film yet. And when I mean we, I mean the public. A lot of what this film is going to ride on is buzz. It needs to build it. Right now, it's speculation of its quality, but what it needs is the real stuff. Either way, it's just yet another horse in this race.

Maybe we should pay attention to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night
With wins in both New York critics groups and both Boston groups, Oscar winner Marion Cotillard might be a bigger threat than we previously thought. The Best Actress category is locked up by Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike, Felicity Jones, and Reese Witherspoon, however that fifth spot has remained up for grabs. With this new found momentum, we might have found the actress to fill it. In other years, I would have paid less attention to an actress in a foreign language film getting the same attention, but Two Days, One Night has strong critical buzz and is at least going to be a nominee for Best Foreign Language film.

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