Will the Academy spread the love and award “Captain Phillips”?
I am no expert in Sound Design, but I see an upset brewing in this category. “Gravity” is expected to sweep 6-7 awards, possibly up to 8 if it wins Best Picture. However, I think that “Captain Phillips” has a good chance to upset.
Often we say the biggest set wins Best Production Design, the most elaborate costumes win Best Costume Design, and the loudest movie wins Best Sound Editing. In this case, wouldn’t “Captain Phillips” be the winner? It has the sounds of the oceans, creaks of the boats, sounds of gunshots. The entire movie is almost tailor made for this category.
I still think “Gravity” is the frontrunner, but it’s not the lock that it is in Best Sound Mixing.
Will Win: “Gravity” Could Win: “Captain Phillips” Should Win: I’m no expert, but “Captain Phillips” sounded great to me Should have been nominated: “Pacific Rim” (The roar of the monsters scared the sh!t out of me.)
Could a film with “Jackass” in the title actually win an Oscar?
This is an interesting category. All the nominees are very understated, but there is one that stands out.
Usually the general rule of thumb is if you’re nominated for Best Picture, then you have an advantage in any given category, but I don’t think Best Picture nominee “Dallas Buyers Club” is going to take.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” is going to win an Oscar… what has the world come to?
Will Win: “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” Could Win: “Dallas Buyers Club” Should Win: “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” Should have been nominated: “American Hustle” (Just for that comb over)
Will Win: “Gravity” Could Win: Hehe… no Should Win: That movie with Miss Congeniality in space with George Clooney Should have been nominated: “Pacific Rim” (Not the porno.)
The high production value of the recreated 1920s sets of “The Great Gatsby” could be the spoiler in this tight race.
Part of my reasoning for my prediction in this category is my confidence, or at least until recently, in the Best Picture category. If “12 Years a Slave” wins Best Picture, it needs to win elsewhere. It’s not guaranteed a win in actor and is losing its lead in supporting actress. Adapted Screenplay is probably their best bet, but I don’t think a film could only win one other award in addition to Best Picture. That’s why I think “12 Years a Slave” is going to upset in Best Production Design similarly to “Lincoln” last year.
Still, the general consensus is usually for the film with the most elaborate sets and that is by far “The Great Gatsby”.
Check out my predictions below and all of my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: “12 Years a Slave” Could Win: “The Great Gatsby” Should Win: “Her” (The slight and understated vision of the future was so well thought out and executed.) Should have been nominated: “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” (Seriously though.)
Will Roger Deakins finally lose his title as Oscars biggest loser in the Best Cinematography category?
I think that many pundits are overestimated that lock that Emmanuel Lubezki for “Gravity” is in this race. While I agree that he is pretty much the frontrunner, I do think that there is room for an upset.
There are two films that I think voters can rally around. The first is Bruno Delbonnel for “Inside Llewyn Davis”, whose film was egregiously snubbed across the board. If voters are displeased with the lack of nominations for the film, this could be the category that they reward it.
The other is Roger Deakins for “Prisoners”, who is the biggest loser of this category, could finally get his due. It is a situation similar to last year. The CGI-heavy film (“Life of Pi”), compared to the smaller more art house cinematography (“Skyfall”). He has also been nominated 11 other times, so voters may just give it to him as a career win.
Like I said, “Gravity” is the undisputed frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an upset.
Check out my predictions below and all my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, “Gravity” Could Win: Bruno Delbonnel, “Inside Llewyn Davis” Should Win: Bruno Delbonnel, “Inside Llewyn Davis” Should have been nominated: Sean Bobbitt, “12 Years a Slave” (It was a no brainer. It is an absolutely gorgeously captured film, it’s snub was terrible.)
Best Actress is an open and shut category. Julianne Moore (Still Alice) was the early frontrunner, even when it was for a different film. Either way, whether she was in the running for Still Alice or A Map to the Stars, it looked like she would finally win her Oscar. She has everything: a pure Oscar bait role, a performance with fire and gravitas, and veteran status. I will be shocked if she doesn’t win.
However, just for fun, let’s try to figure out who’s in second place. Reese Witherspoon (Wild) was another early frontrunner, who similarly has a bait role, and a performance with fire and gravitas. So, naturally she should be the next in line for the win. However, she just doesn’t have the urgency that Moore has.
I think a contender that a lot of people were underestimating is Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl). Even with the complete Gone Girl snub, I think she had the most unique role of the nominees. It was a showy femme fatale role that the average Oscar voter would love.
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Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice Could Win: Reese Witherspoon, Wild Should Win: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (off pure difficulty and execution) Should have been nominated: Anne Dorval, Mommy
The Oscar for Best Animated Feature is usually won in a walk. Frozen, Up, Toy Story 3 were all the frontrunners from close to the beginning of Oscar season and pulled it out all the way to the end. The only year in recent memory that the race was unclear was in 2012 when Brave pulled off a win over Paranorman, Frankenweenie, and Wreck-it-Ralph.
This year was looking closer to being another walk when The Lego Movie was released in February, and nearly every Oscar pundit called the race then and there.
Things got a bit awkward when it wasn’t even nominated.
So, it’s looking like the assumed runner-up and Golden Globe winner How to Train Your Dragon 2 is going to take this one. It received strong reviews and has been lauded for its emotional resonance, which continues the trend of past winners that were able to play to both kids and adults. However, the one knock against it is that only one sequel in the history of this category has won, Toy Story 3. It was one of the best reviewed movies of the year and received a Best Picture nomination to go along with its Animated Feature win.
If voters decide to go with the trend of awarding original features, then it’s pretty much open season. Although we could see a shocker like Song of the Sea, I think it’s more likely that the crowd pleaser Big Hero 6 upset How to Train Your Dragon.
Will Win:How to Train Your Dragon 2 Could Win:Big Hero 6 Should Win:How to Train Your Dragon 2 Should have been nominated: Um… The Lego Movie
Will “The Square” surprise Oscar pundits and win Best Documentary Feature?
Since the beginning of the race for Best Documentary Feature, it looked like The Act of Killing would take the Oscar. However, this category is one that often goes a different way from the consensus. Of course there have been times, like last year when Searching for Sugar Man, that the frontrunner actually wins. This year, however, there are several reasons why I think The Square can and will win the Oscar over frontrunner The Act of Killing.
1. It is a traditional documentary
Unlike The Act of Killing, which has structure that could be seen as experimental, The Square has a more traditional format. It does what a documentary is meant to do, document events. The Act of Killing instead recreates the events, which although innovative, could go over the heads of voters. In prior years, when a documentary branch would vote on the category, an experimental documentary like Man on Wire and Bowling for Columbine would pull of a win, but overall films like Undefeated and Searching for Sugar Man would win.
2. It follows an Urgent topic The revolution in Egypt is one that is completely current and urgent. It feels close to many around the globe and in this country. The revolution is still fresh in everyone’s minds and is still ongoing. While this doesn’t always lead to success at the Oscars, it does mean that voters could feel the need to award the film.
3. It is both heartbreaking and honest Unlike many, I feel as if this is a positive in this race. I understand that feel good documentaries like Man on Wire, Undefeated, and March of the Penguins have won, but so have documentaries like The Fog of War, An Inconvenient Truth, and Taxi to the Dark Side, which cover topics that are uncomfortable and brutally depicted.
4. The other nominees all have flaws
Often we discuss why a film will win, but we also have see why the other nominees won’t win. As I said before The Act of Killing is too experimental in its form, 20 Feet from Stardom is too light of a subject, Dirty Wars is too controversial and seemingly biased, and Cutie and the Boxer doesn’t seem to have the support necessary.
5. There are too many definite frontrunners this year
This is a category where the frontrunner often falls. This year, the Oscars seem to be coming to a consensus on most categories, but they obviously rarely, if ever, go as planned.
Terrence Winter could be a potential consolation prize for “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Since the beginning of this Oscar race I found this category to be one of the easiest to predict. However, recently I feel like there could be an upset in the works.
John Ridley for 12 Years a Slavehas been so solidly in the lead in this category that I would almost consider him a lock, but that was all until it was clear that 12 Years a Slave would win Best Picture. Now, the winner of one category doesn’t often affect the outcome of another, however I do think that voters know that this may be the only category that they could award Terrence Winter for The Wolf of Wall Street.
Recently, there has also been a surge of support for Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for Philomena. The duo just recently won the BAFTA award over favorite 12 Years a Slave, so there may be an upset in the works.
The wild card of the category is Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater for Before Midnight.I don’t have the guts to predict them, but don’t be surprised if the trio is up on stage.
Check out my predictions below and all my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave Could Win: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, & Richard Linklater for Before Midnight Should Win: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, & Richard Linklater for Before Midnight Should Have Been Nominated: Nothing really stood out in this category.
“Captain Phillips” is a potential spoiler in this key Oscar category.
Like most technical categories this year, it looks like Gravity is going to take the award easily. However, I feel as if this is also a category that they may use to award a Best Picture nominee that might not win in any other categories.
Dallas Buyers Club has Jared Leto as a lock in the Best Supporting Actor category, 12 Years a Slave looks like it will win Best Picture. That leaves American Hustle and Captain Phillips. In this category, the film with the most editing wins and this year that film is Captain Phillips. It also helps a lot that they recently upset at the ACE Eddie Awards.
Check out my predictions below and all of my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win:Captain Phillips Could Win:Gravity Should Win:Captain Phillips Should Have Been Nominated:Her (The speed of the story is so well complimented by the editing. Not to mention the gorgeous montages throughout the film.)
I’m not going to speak to the manner of Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s death. I find that unnecessary. I am going to speak about his accomplishments in his 46 years of life that ended too early today.
He is one of the greatest actors of this century. He brought us such memorable roles as Truman Capote, Father Brendan Flynn, and Lancaster Dodd. What makes him one of the greatest actors of this generation is his dedication to his roles. He immerses himself.
He doesn’t have to changes his voice, or his appearance, there is something underneath that makes its way to the surface and takes over his body. He becomes a different person.
He may not have been a household name in every house, but in my house he was a cherished part of American cinema and theatre. He rarely took roles in blockbusters, although his most recent turn in The Hunger Games: Catching Fire could qualify him as such. Even then, he opted for films like Doubt, The Master, and Synecdoche, New York. These are films that I watch and make me believe in the magic of movies again.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman was a man that truly embraced his art. This year, the world of cinema lost a giant.
Although “The Wind Rises” has a shot at taking the Oscar for Best Animated Feature, it is “Frozen’s” race to lose.
Since the inception of the Best Animated Feature categories, Disney has reaped 7 nominations, however has not won. This year may change that statistic. Frozen, which is being cited as one of Disney’s best films since their renaissance in the 90’s, is the clear and definite frontrunner in this category. It is funny, well-written, well-animated, with catchy songs and is the best animated film of the year.
However, there is a spoiler in the category. While there hasn’t been as much buzz for this film as his previous two films, Hayao Miyazaki has won this category once before in 2002 for Spirited Away and has announced thatThe Wind Rises will be his final film. If Oscar voters are feeling sentimental then they may go with this swan song.
Check out my predictions below and all of my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Frozen Could Win:The Wind Rises Should Win:Frozen Should Have Been Nominated:Monsters University (mostly for sentimental reasons)
Can “20 Feet from Stardom” take down frontrunner “The Act of Killing” for Best Documentary Feature
When it comes to Oscar predictions, the consensus tends to be right. However, there are rare cases where I think the consensus is wrong.
Such is the case with Best Documentary Feature. Almost every media outlet is predicting The Act of Killing, but I think that there is going to be a huge shock in the category.
Stories We Tell was one of the most acclaimed documentaries of the year, mostly for its unique style, however it was snubbed, which makes it clear that the academy is obviously not ready to embrace art house documentaries. This is why I think the more traditional doc The Squareis going to surprise. As I explained here, they have several factors going for them.
The only other film in the category that I think will have chance is 20 Feet from Stardom, which is the most uplifting of the nominees.
Check out my predictions below and all our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win:The Square Spoiler: The Act of Killing Should Win:Cutie and the Boxer (I think it’s the most human of the documentaries.) Should Have Been Nominated: Stories We Tell, Blackfish
The lavish 1920s costumes of “The Great Gatsby” are a shoo-in for Best Costume Design
Predicting the winner for Best Costume Design is pretty easy, the movie with the most “apparent” costumes is often crowned the winner. The more flash, glitter, and fabric, the better.
This year that goesThe Great Gatsby. The costume design is an interesting one. It toes the line between an historical representation and a historical exaggeration. For this category, that’s a good thing.
The only film I can see possibly stealing its thunder is either American Hustle whose flash and bling is enough to power the east coast and 12 Years a Slave, which could win in the case of a sweep
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win:The Great Gatsby Should Win:The Great Gatsby Could Win:American Hustle Should Have Been Nominated:Inside Llewyn Davis
“Her” is probably in a distant second place to “Gravity” in the race for Best Original Score
Unlike Best Original Song, the winner for Best Original Score at the Golden Globes and Oscars tend to match up. In the past ten years the two awards have agreed on the winner seven times, compared to the one time the two awards agreed on Best Original Song.
However, in a huge shakeup, Golden Globe winner Alex Ebert for All is Lost was snubbed at the Oscars. In an even bigger shakeup, Academy Award winner and 9-time nominee in this category Hans Zimmer was snubbed for his work in 12 Years a Slave.
With the two enormous snubs mentioned above, Steven Price for Gravityall but won the Oscar. Not that it wouldn’t be deserved, his score is looming and restrained at the same time. It fits the film like a glove, but one nominee surpassed his work.
I think that the one film that has a chance to take the award is Arcade Fire and Owen Pallett for Her.The reason? In my opinion it is the best score of the year. It complements Spike Jonze’s sensitive direction so well, and at certain point is catchy.
Check out my rankings below and all of my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Steven Price, Gravity Could Win: Arcade Fire & Owen Pallett, Her Should Win: Arcade Fire & Owen Pallett, Her Should Have Been Nominated: Hanz Zimmer, Rush (Note: I think Zimmer’s work in Rush was far superior to his in 12 Years a Slave.)
