Lead Actor in a Drama Series is the most unpredictable category at the Emmys this year
Lead Actor in a Drama Series is a wide open category. Two of last year’s nominees, Jon Hamm (Mad Men) and Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom), are ineligible this year and only two seem like locks.
The two actors that are locks for nominations are also the ones that are most competitive for the win. Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) seems to have just missed the win every year he was nominated. But with rivals Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm out of the way, he has a clear path to finally nabbing the prize. Plus, his portrayal is so acclaimed that it’s just a matter of time before he wins.
However, the one person he has to get through is Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul). Not only has he receive acclaim for his performance, the series is also riding on a strong wave of support. But they have to watch out for one other actor.
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) is safe to reap a nomination. His series going to come into the Emmys hot and he is coming off nominations at SAG, the Globes, and a win at Critics’ Choice. More than that though, I think he could actually upset the two frontrunners for a win.
After them the category is blow wide open. Though Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) and Kyle Chandler (Bloodline) are both eligible, their shows haven’t made a hit with audiences or the Emmys. While I think that is going to affect Schreiber, Chandler should still be able to get in on name alone.
That leaves two open spots. Assuming it goes the Friday Night Lights route, I think Matthew Rhys (The Americans) gets in pretty easily. He has been receiving strong and consistent reviews and is an industry favorite. Plus, with his show finally breaking through last year in writing, I think it’s finally time for him to grab a nomination.
The last spot is going to be pretty tricky. A lot of people are predicting Emmy favorites Paul Giamatti and Damien Lewis from Billions. But is anyone really watching that show? While I understand they could get in on name alone, there just doesn’t feel like there’s any support behind them or the show.
A show that I can see being embraced by the Emmys is Hulu’s The Path and its two leads: Aaron Paul and Hugh Dancy. I think Paul is more likely to be nominated, but it all depends on how the Emmys react to the network. If they don’t go with one of them it’s either going to be Bobby Cannavale (Vinyl) or Wagner Moura (Narcos) or Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey). Yes, the race is that open. I’m sticking with Paul for the last spot but this is the most unpredictable category of the year.
Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!
My Predictions:
Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Aaron Paul (The Path)
Matthew Rhys (The American)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)***
***Predicted winner
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.