And the nominees are… We take our best guess at who will be nominated at the 2017 Oscars
The nominations for the 89th Academy Awards are next Tuesday and we'll finally know where this wacky awards season leads to. This year has been one of the most confusing awards seasons in recent memories. However, we do know one thing: La La Land will dominate the awards. If my predictions hold, La La Land will lead with thirteen nominations followed by Arrival with twelve. The two other films best positioned to win the top prize, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, should reap eight and six nominations each.
This year, I tried to make more bold choices. Among the boldest are Ryan Reynolds being nominated for Deadpool, The Handmaiden showing up in a couple technical categories, and a near shut-out for Silence.
Check out my final 2017 Oscar nominations predictions below!
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
I think this category more than any should go as planned. I don't foresee any surprises except for maybe a nomination for Deadpool. While the last two years there have been eight nominations, Hidden Figures will probably sneak in and make it nine.
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
While a lot of people think that the DGA nomination for Garth Davis (Lion) was a fluke. I was predicting him to get in even before that. He'll be the Ben Zeitlan or Lenny Abrahamson of this year.
Best Actor
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
Denzel Washington, Fences
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Yes, you read that right. I think Ryan Reynolds will be nominated for Deadpool. Even then, it's probably a long shot and Viggo Mortensen will be nominated for Captain Fantastic. But, no guts no glory, right?
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
This category should go as planned. Meryl Streep cemented her place with her incredible Golden Globes speech.
Best Supporting Actor
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Other than Lucas Hedges, I think this category is locked. I can see him being snubbed for Aaron Taylor-Johnson after his shocking nomination at the Golden Globes.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
This category has been consistent throughout the season. I don't see why that would end with the Oscars.
Best Original Screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
My big prediction for this category is 20th Century Women. It just feels like the type of movie to be nominated in this category. I'm also going out on a limp – a more sturdy one – for The Lobster.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Moonlight
Lion
This was one of the harder categories to predict. Nocturnal Animals is the wild card here.
Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Moonlight
I think Manchester by the Sea is going to take a hit by missing this Best Picture requirement.
Best Cinematography
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence
My big prediction here is Hacksaw Ridge. However, war movies do well in this category so I felt like it would be a missed opportunity to leave it out.
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Handmaiden
Jackie
La La Land
Much like The Grandmaster a couple of years ago, The Handmaiden could be that foreign film ineligible for Best Foreign Language that makes up for it in the tech categories.
Best Costume Design
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
The Handmaiden
Jackie
La La Land
Again, The Handmaiden.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
A Man Called Ove
A lot of people are going with Hail, Caesar or Star Trek Beyond. However, I think this is the perfect place for Deadpool to get some love.
Best Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
No surprises here!
Best Original Song
“Runnin'” – Hidden Figures
“City of Stars” – La La Land
“Audition” – La La Land
“How Far I'll Go” – Moana
“Can't Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
After “City of Stars” making a romp of the early awards, I think the Academy will include “Audition,” which could pave the way for Lin Manuel Miranda to EGOT.
Best Sound Editing
13 Hours
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The sound categories are notoriously hard to predict. While I'm confident about most of it, I'm taking a huge guess in including 13 Hours.
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Damien Chazelle's last movie Whiplash won in this category. He should easily do it again with La La Land.
Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
I think (and really hope) Kubo and the Two Strings makes history as the first animated movie to be nominated in this category.
Best Animated Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life As A Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Pixar is probably sitting this year out.
Best Foreign Language Film
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
My Life As A Zucchini
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann
This category is pretty much set. Land of Mine could be bumped out for Tanna, though.
Best Documentary
13th
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
OJ: Made In America
Tower
This is a stacked category this year. While Weiner or The Eagle Huntress or Gleason is the smart choice. My gut says it's gonna be Tower.
Best Animated Short Film
The Head Vanishes
Inner Workings
Pear and Cider Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Best Live Action Short Film
Graffiti
Nocturne in Black
Silent Nights
Timecode
The Way of Tea
Best Documentary Short Subject
4.1 Miles
Extremis
Frame 394
Joe's Violin
The White Helmets
What do you think of my nominations? Where am I completely wrong? Let me know in the comments!
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.