The Cannes Film Festival has turned into a reliable launching pad for Oscar contenders. These are the films to keep an eye on.
Walk out of any Cannes premiere and the same question hangs in the air: “Does it have a shot?” It’s premature to make predictions with certainty. We we still have months until awards season switches into high gear, but the Croisette has a way of separating genuine contenders from fleeting buzz. This year’s festival delivered several films that could make the journey from the Palais to the Dolby Theatre come March.
Let’s start with the most obvious: “Anora“. Sean Baker’s screwball fairytale just won the Palme d’Or, which doesn’t guarantee Oscar love but certainly establishes momentum. It has the indie-darling pedigree the Academy often embraces, paired with the kind of wild entertainment value that can broaden its appeal beyond arthouse circles. Baker has always felt like a filmmaker that would have his break into the race after coming close with “The Florida Project“
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Mikey Madison is ferocious as Ani, a Brooklyn stripper who marries into Russian oligarch money only to watch the fantasy implode in real time. As we noted in our review, Madison delivers a “star-is-born moment”—the kind of breakout performance that the Academy loves. Baker’s best shot for recognition is likely Original Screenplay, where these kinds of dramedies tend to thrive (think “Juno” or “Little Miss Sunshine”. As for Best Picture, it feels like our first legitimate contender. Time will tell if it remains at the top of the conversation.
“Emilia Pérez” is the most surprising breakout of the festival. A Spanish-language musical about a cartel boss who transitions and seeks atonement? Jacques Audiard has crafted something spectacular, strange, and perhaps a bit controversial. Reactions split sharply between rapturous and bewildered, and that kind of polarization can push a film either direction. However, with Netflix’s backing and a historic four-way Best Actress prize to Karla Sofia Gascon (the first ever trans winner), Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez and Adrianna Paz, it could be a wild but very possible swing for the Academy to take.
Speaking of wild swings, there’s “The Substance“, which will test whether the Academy is ready to fully embrace genre filmmaking after breakthroughs with “Get Out” and “Everything Everywhere All At Once”. Coralie Fargeat’s body horror satire is anchored by Demi Moore in what may be the performance of her career. Moore plays a fading aerobics star who uses a black market drug to create a younger version of herself, resulting in what our review called “a diabolically delightful body horror” that serves as a grotesque meditation on aging, beauty, and self-destruction. It’s precisely the kind of role that should appeal to Oscar voters—a comeback narrative with technical demands and thematic weight, addressing Hollywood’s ageism head-on.
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Finally, “Furiosa“. George Miller’s Mad Max prequel played Out of Competition, so it wasn’t vying for the Palme, but it arrived with characteristic fury. Anya Taylor-Joy is magnetic as the younger Furiosa, and Miller continues to demonstrate more visual imagination than most directors half his age. The challenge: The Academy has already honored Miller for Fury Road, and voters tend to resist returning to the same well. Technical nominations—Editing, Sound, Production Design—have the best shot, but Picture and Director feel like longer odds unless the film achieves genuine cultural phenomenon status this summer. Still, Miller has a history of making the impossible feel inevitable.
The real variable is time. Cannes titles have momentum, certainly, but they must survive six months of festivals, word-of-mouth, and campaign spending before Oscar night. Some will fade. Some will strengthen. And some—like Anora or The Substance—might sustain their buzz long enough to prove that Cannes still matters when the envelopes open in March.
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Hey! I’m Karl. You can find me on Twitter and Letterboxd. I’m also a Tomatometer-approved critic.
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Hey, I’m Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven’t yet seen represented. I’m also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.