I’m going to keep this short and sweet: if “Gravity” loses, it will be the single greatest upset in the history of the Academy Awards.
Check out the rest of my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: “Gravity”
Could Win: Hehe… no
Should Win: That movie with Miss Congeniality in space with George Clooney
Should have been nominated: “Pacific Rim” (Not the porno.)
Part of my reasoning for my prediction in this category is my confidence, or at least until recently, in the Best Picture category. If “12 Years a Slave” wins Best Picture, it needs to win elsewhere. It’s not guaranteed a win in actor and is losing its lead in supporting actress. Adapted Screenplay is probably their best bet, but I don’t think a film could only win one other award in addition to Best Picture. That’s why I think “12 Years a Slave” is going to upset in Best Production Design similarly to “Lincoln” last year.
Still, the general consensus is usually for the film with the most elaborate sets and that is by far “The Great Gatsby”.
Check out my predictions below and all of my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: “12 Years a Slave”
Could Win: “The Great Gatsby”
Should Win: “Her” (The slight and understated vision of the future was so well thought out and executed.)
Should have been nominated: “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” (Seriously though.)
When it comes to Oscar predictions, the consensus tends to be right. However, there are rare cases where I think the consensus is wrong.
Such is the case with Best Documentary Feature. Almost every media outlet is predicting The Act of Killing, but I think that there is going to be a huge shock in the category.
Stories We Tell was one of the most acclaimed documentaries of the year, mostly for its unique style, however it was snubbed, which makes it clear that the academy is obviously not ready to embrace art house documentaries. This is why I think the more traditional doc The Square is going to surprise. As I explained here, they have several factors going for them.
The only other film in the category that I think will have chance is 20 Feet from Stardom, which is the most uplifting of the nominees.
Check out my predictions below and all our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: The Square
Spoiler: The Act of Killing
Should Win: Cutie and the Boxer (I think it’s the most human of the documentaries.)
Should Have Been Nominated: Stories We Tell, Blackfish
I think that many pundits are overestimated that lock that Emmanuel Lubezki for “Gravity” is in this race. While I agree that he is pretty much the frontrunner, I do think that there is room for an upset.
There are two films that I think voters can rally around. The first is Bruno Delbonnel for “Inside Llewyn Davis”, whose film was egregiously snubbed across the board. If voters are displeased with the lack of nominations for the film, this could be the category that they reward it.
The other is Roger Deakins for “Prisoners”, who is the biggest loser of this category, could finally get his due. It is a situation similar to last year. The CGI-heavy film (“Life of Pi”), compared to the smaller more art house cinematography (“Skyfall”). He has also been nominated 11 other times, so voters may just give it to him as a career win.
Like I said, “Gravity” is the undisputed frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an upset.
Check out my predictions below and all my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, “Gravity”
Could Win: Bruno Delbonnel, “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Should Win: Bruno Delbonnel, “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Should have been nominated: Sean Bobbitt, “12 Years a Slave” (It was a no brainer. It is an absolutely gorgeously captured film, it’s snub was terrible.)
Since the beginning of the race for Best Documentary Feature, it looked like The Act of Killing would take the Oscar. However, this category is one that often goes a different way from the consensus. Of course there have been times, like last year when Searching for Sugar Man, that the frontrunner actually wins. This year, however, there are several reasons why I think The Square can and will win the Oscar over frontrunner The Act of Killing.
1. It is a traditional documentary
Unlike The Act of Killing, which has structure that could be seen as experimental, The Square has a more traditional format. It does what a documentary is meant to do, document events. The Act of Killing instead recreates the events, which although innovative, could go over the heads of voters. In prior years, when a documentary branch would vote on the category, an experimental documentary like Man on Wire and Bowling for Columbine would pull of a win, but overall films like Undefeated and Searching for Sugar Man would win.
2. It follows an Urgent topic
The revolution in Egypt is one that is completely current and urgent. It feels close to many around the globe and in this country. The revolution is still fresh in everyone’s minds and is still ongoing. While this doesn’t always lead to success at the Oscars, it does mean that voters could feel the need to award the film.
3. It is both heartbreaking and honest
Unlike many, I feel as if this is a positive in this race. I understand that feel good documentaries like Man on Wire, Undefeated, and March of the Penguins have won, but so have documentaries like The Fog of War, An Inconvenient Truth, and Taxi to the Dark Side, which cover topics that are uncomfortable and brutally depicted.
4. The other nominees all have flaws
Often we discuss why a film will win, but we also have see why the other nominees won’t win. As I said before The Act of Killing is too experimental in its form, 20 Feet from Stardom is too light of a subject, Dirty Wars is too controversial and seemingly biased, and Cutie and the Boxer doesn’t seem to have the support necessary.
5. There are too many definite frontrunners this year
This is a category where the frontrunner often falls. This year, the Oscars seem to be coming to a consensus on most categories, but they obviously rarely, if ever, go as planned.
Check out my oscar predictions here!
Since the beginning of this Oscar race I found this category to be one of the easiest to predict. However, recently I feel like there could be an upset in the works.
John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave has been so solidly in the lead in this category that I would almost consider him a lock, but that was all until it was clear that 12 Years a Slave would win Best Picture. Now, the winner of one category doesn’t often affect the outcome of another, however I do think that voters know that this may be the only category that they could award Terrence Winter for The Wolf of Wall Street.
Recently, there has also been a surge of support for Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for Philomena. The duo just recently won the BAFTA award over favorite 12 Years a Slave, so there may be an upset in the works.
The wild card of the category is Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater for Before Midnight. I don’t have the guts to predict them, but don’t be surprised if the trio is up on stage.
Check out my predictions below and all my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, & Richard Linklater for Before Midnight
Should Win: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, & Richard Linklater for Before Midnight
Should Have Been Nominated: Nothing really stood out in this category.
Like most technical categories this year, it looks like Gravity is going to take the award easily. However, I feel as if this is also a category that they may use to award a Best Picture nominee that might not win in any other categories.
Dallas Buyers Club has Jared Leto as a lock in the Best Supporting Actor category, 12 Years a Slave looks like it will win Best Picture. That leaves American Hustle and Captain Phillips. In this category, the film with the most editing wins and this year that film is Captain Phillips. It also helps a lot that they recently upset at the ACE Eddie Awards.
Check out my predictions below and all of my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Captain Phillips
Could Win: Gravity
Should Win: Captain Phillips
Should Have Been Nominated: Her (The speed of the story is so well complimented by the editing. Not to mention the gorgeous montages throughout the film.)
Since the inception of the Best Animated Feature categories, Disney has reaped 7 nominations, however has not won. This year may change that statistic. Frozen, which is being cited as one of Disney’s best films since their renaissance in the 90’s, is the clear and definite frontrunner in this category. It is funny, well-written, well-animated, with catchy songs and is the best animated film of the year.
However, there is a spoiler in the category. While there hasn’t been as much buzz for this film as his previous two films, Hayao Miyazaki has won this category once before in 2002 for Spirited Away and has announced that The Wind Rises will be his final film. If Oscar voters are feeling sentimental then they may go with this swan song.
Check out my predictions below and all of my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Frozen
Could Win: The Wind Rises
Should Win: Frozen
Should Have Been Nominated: Monsters University (mostly for sentimental reasons)
Predicting the winner for Best Costume Design is pretty easy, the movie with the most “apparent” costumes is often crowned the winner. The more flash, glitter, and fabric, the better.
This year that goes The Great Gatsby. The costume design is an interesting one. It toes the line between an historical representation and a historical exaggeration. For this category, that’s a good thing.
The only film I can see possibly stealing its thunder is either American Hustle whose flash and bling is enough to power the east coast and 12 Years a Slave, which could win in the case of a sweep
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: American Hustle
Should Have Been Nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis
Unlike Best Original Song, the winner for Best Original Score at the Golden Globes and Oscars tend to match up. In the past ten years the two awards have agreed on the winner seven times, compared to the one time the two awards agreed on Best Original Song.
However, in a huge shakeup, Golden Globe winner Alex Ebert for All is Lost was snubbed at the Oscars. In an even bigger shakeup, Academy Award winner and 9-time nominee in this category Hans Zimmer was snubbed for his work in 12 Years a Slave.
With the two enormous snubs mentioned above, Steven Price for Gravity all but won the Oscar. Not that it wouldn’t be deserved, his score is looming and restrained at the same time. It fits the film like a glove, but one nominee surpassed his work.
I think that the one film that has a chance to take the award is Arcade Fire and Owen Pallett for Her. The reason? In my opinion it is the best score of the year. It complements Spike Jonze’s sensitive direction so well, and at certain point is catchy.
Check out my rankings below and all of my Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Steven Price, Gravity
Could Win: Arcade Fire & Owen Pallett, Her
Should Win: Arcade Fire & Owen Pallett, Her
Should Have Been Nominated: Hanz Zimmer, Rush (Note: I think Zimmer’s work in Rush was far superior to his in 12 Years a Slave.)
Before I give you my predictions for Best Original Song, I have to give a startling statistic. In the last ten years, the winner of the Golden Globe for Best Original Song only repeated at the Oscars once. The last time it occurred was in 2009 when “The Weary Kind” from Crazy Heart won over both award shows.
That being said, this essentially makes “Let it Go” from Frozen the frontrunner. In addition to its loss at the Golden Globes (which is a positive here), it also is honestly the best song of the bunch.
I do think that “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom has a chance. Like I said, the winner of the Golden Globe has won over the Oscars before, however it tends to be the song that is a clear frontrunner (“My Heart Will Go On”, “Into the West”) and I don’t believe “Ordinary Love” has that luxury. It does have the power of its writers U2 behind it, but that is often not a factor.
Check out my predictions below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: “Let it Go” from Frozen
Could Win: “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Should Win:“Let it Go” from Frozen
Should Have Been Nominated: “Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby
Best Original Screenplay is probably one of my favorite above the line categories at the Oscars. Screenwriters have the hardest, but most gratifying jobs in the entertainment industry. This years, there have been some fantastic original movies this year, and honestly any of the nominees this year would be deserving, but whether they will win is another question.
I think in the lead is a Spike Jonze for Her. It has a few things going for it, but first and foremost it is one of the two nominees that is wholly original (the other being Bob Nelson for Nebraska). He has also consistently been winning different critics’ groups award including the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice awards. I also think that it is wholly unique from anything that has been nominated before. Romances are no strangers to this category (Before Sunset, the prequel to current nominee Before Midnight, was nominated in this category), however none have commented on society like Spike Jonze did in Her. It is also probably the one category that voters would feel comfortable awarding the film.
However, right on their tail is Eric Singer and David O. Russell for American Hustle. The film is one of the three frontrunners for Best Picture. It also helps that the Academy has quite the love affair with David O. Russell, who has been nominated in Best Director three times and nominated last year in Adapted Screenplay for Silver Linings Playbook. Although the film has a good chance in other categories, voters may decide that this is where they should award the film if it fails to win (Picture, Director, Actress, or Supporting Actress, where I have the film in second place).
Although I’m pretty certain that one of the two above films will win, there is room for Bob Nelson for Nebraska to potentially upset. He has created such a charming screenplay with great characters. If Gravity is a director’s film, then Nebraska is a writers film. Woody Allen was a factor when nominations first came out, but the Academy would not want to hand him an Oscar amidst the recent controversy concerning Dylan Farrow.
Check out my predictions below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Spike Jonze, Her
Could Win: Eric Singer & David O. Russell, American Hustle
Should Win: Spike Jonze, Her
Should Have been Nominated: Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Other than Jared Leto in Best Supporting Actor, I think this is the only other category that is essentially a lock. Cate Blanchett (whose role in Blue Jasmine has been compared to the role of Blanche DuBois in A Streetcar Named Desire) has lost just four awards this season. That includes her 38 nominations in different critics groups around the nation.
Although she won an Oscar relatively recently, at least by Academy standards, it was in the Supporting category. Many Academy members may want to award the actress in the more prestigious Best Actress category. It also helps that her role in Blue Jasmine is probably one of the more complex of the year. She plays in two different points in her life, before and after her husband goes to jail. In one she is an uptight upper east sider, while in the other she is an alcoholic delusional divorcee.
There are two people that I could see beating her here. Amy Adams landed a surprise (to some people) nomination, which could mean a large amount of support. Now I know she missed out on a Screen Actors Guild nomination, which is essential to taking the top prize, but she is well liked in the Academy (she received 5 nominations in 8 years). In addition, she gives a very emotional performance, probably the best of the film’s ensemble. She is definitely in this.
The other is Sandra Bullock. I think that she has the sweep factor in her favor. If voters decide to give “Gravity” six or seven awards, why not Bullock?
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Could Win: Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Should Win: Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
Should have been Nominated: Brie Larson, “Short Term 12”
I’m calling that Best Actor is the most competitive category of the year. In any other year I would have been delighted by Christian Bale’s nomination, but this year with the amount of talent I’m a little disappointed that he was nominated.
Also, in any other year, any of the other four actors nominated could have won and I would be happy, but this year they have made one of the most competitive categories in years.
There is honestly no indication of a winner. I know that it seems that Matthew McConaughey is in the lead and he won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice, but I honestly just can’t see Oscar voters rallying behind him.
Chiwetel Ejiofor nearly dominated the early critics’ awards and won the BAFTA, but 12 Years a Slave doesn’t have the wide spread support anymore. I think that the movie has to be solidly in the lead for Best Picture for him to win.
Although “comedy” performances tend not to well here, Leonardo DiCaprio has quickly become one of Oscars biggest losers. He won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice for Best Comedy Actor, but it doesn’t feel like there is an urgency to award him.
Lastly, there is the apple in a bunch of oranges. Bruce Dern is the veteran of the bunch, who delivers a quiet, but sweet performance. I think this leads me to believe he can take it. He didn’t do well in the precursors, but he was always there, always nominated. He has also led a strong campaign.
UPDATE 2/17: This category is a shot in the dark. Right now, I think that shot is going to land on Dern, but I’m going to change that prediction a few more times from now till Oscar night.
UPDATE 2/27: I’m actually switching over to DiCaprio and I’m going to stay put there till Oscar night. Wishful thinking or an accurate hunch? I have no clue.
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Could Win: Literally anyone except Christian Bale
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street (That was a bravura performance. If it was any other actor in the role it would have ended up being caricature, but he grounded it.)
Should Have been Nominated: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
This race is locked up. It’s locked up to that point that I am actually using it as part of my argument for Best Picture.
Alfonso Cuarón hasn’t lost a single race in his march to Oscar glory. It makes sense seeing as he made use of every single minute of screen time. Each shot was so well calculated and packed with meaning. It is really a director’s film.
Had “12 Years a Slave” maintained the strength it had earlier in the race, then Steve McQueen would have a chance, but without a DGA win his chances have pretty much been skunked.
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Could Win: N/A
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Should have been Nominated: Spike Jonze, Her