Despite the mess that is the 2019 Oscars, it is refreshing to have a season that feels unpredictable. Best Picture is still up in the air as is Best Supporting Actress while there is room for upsets in nearly every category. As a lifelong Oscar fan, it’s always more excited to not know who’s going to win come Sunday night.
Will Win:BlacKkKlansman Could Win:Roma or Green Book Should Win:Roma or Black Panther
I’m taking a big swing in this category. While BlacKkKlansman hasn’t won a major prize, it was nominated every where it needed to be. People love and respect Spike Lee. I think this is going to do really well on the preferential ballot. As long as Roma or Green Book don’t win on a first round then I think this is your Best Picture winner.
Best Actress
Olivia Coleman as Queen Anne in THE FAVOURITE
The nominees:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife Could Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite Should Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Glenn Close will finally end her 37-year losing streak when she wins her first Oscar for The Wife. There is the *tiniest* chance that BAFTA winner Olivia Coleman wins for her performance Queen Ann in The Favourite.
Best Actor
Rami Malek in BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
The nominees:
Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Could win: Christian Bale, Vice Should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Although Christian Bale won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards for his performance as Dick Cheney in Vice, I think the real challenger to clear frontrunner Rami Malek is Bradley Cooper. For better or worse, he’s been in the news a lot and if voters want to award A Star is Born outside of Best Original Song, this would be the place to do it.
Best Actor is a three-way race between Bradley Cooper, Rami Malek, and Christian Bale at the 2019 Oscars.
Best Actor still doesn’t have a clear single frontrunner. Critics season was ruled by Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, but he missed nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, which doesn’t bode well for his campaign. At the top of the list are three actors with very legitimate shots to win. Here are the contenders:
Rami Malek’s performance as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsodyhas been almost universally praised despite the film’s mostly negative reviews and the controversy around its director. However, Bohemian Rhapsody is clearly loved by the industry than critics.
Rami Malek managed to win the Golden Globe over Bradley Cooper — who was in contention for A Star is Born — despite a very close race. However, I’m not sure the Oscar voting body will embrace his performance the same way.
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
The Oscars love to nominate Bradley Cooper — he was nominated three years in a row for Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. However, he’s yet to win. I think that’s going to help him a lot. Especially with Malek going in as a first-time nominee and his other competitor Christian Bale (Vice) already a winner.
The other thing that will help him is the general love for A Star is Born. As the director, screenwriter, and producer, they’ll want to give him some love. And it feels like they might do it in Best Actor.
Rami Malek’s electric performance in Bohemian Rhapsodycould land him his first Oscar nomination in Best Actor.
Christian Bale, Vice
On paper, Christian Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney in Viceis one that wins Best Actor. It’s a transformative performance of a real-life figure — in the usual fashion, Bale put on extra weight for the role — which has won everyone from Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) to last year’s winner Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) the Oscar.
However, unlike those two actors, Bale is playing a villain and an incredibly unlikeable figure. Granted, the Adam McKay film tries to portray Cheney in a negative light. There’s also the issue of Bale being a relatively recent winner and lacking the narrative for a second win.
On the Bubble
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Viggo Mortensen would have had the perfect overlooked veteran narrative — like Glenn Close in Best Actress — to win him the Oscar for Green Book. However, there are two things preventing him. First, the movie is divisive, particularly about his character. Second, Mortensen has made some… controversial comments.
The movie’s popularity and industry goodwill will push him to a nomination, but a win is off the table.
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
BlacKkKlansmanhas been one of the few consistencies throughout awards season, so it’s only right that its lead actor is nominated. I was skeptical of John David Washington’s — son of Denzel — chances despite his Golden Globe nomination — there are effectively 10 slots at the Globes. Then he got a SAG nomination. I think that sealed it for him.
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Ethan Hawke essentially ruled the critics’ awards for his performance in First Reformed. However, his snub at the Globes and SAG along with the movie’s lack of buzz — even a screenplay nomination seems out of reach — are going to make it hard for him to get a nomination.
That being said, there’s still a chance. The Academy might like the movie more than the guilds and Globes and A24 has proven itself an award juggernaut.
Other Contenders
Ryan Gosling, First Man
First Man has pretty much fallen out of the awards conversation — except for Claire Foy in Best Supporting Actress. However, Ryan Gosling still has an inkling of a shot for his portrayal of Neil Armstrong.
Though it’s a quiet performance — the Academy tends to like his louder performances like Half Nelson and La La Land — it’s certainly impactful. If First Man has a resurgence he can slip in.
Ryan Gosling could receive his third Best Actor nomination for First Man.
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Willem Dafoe got thisclose to winning his first Oscar for The Florida Project but ultimately lost to Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. And while on paper his performance as Vincent Van Gogh seems like an Oscar-friendly role, the movie is definitely artsier than your typical biopic.
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
Allegedly, The Old Man & the Gun is screen legend Robert Redford’s final film performance. We’ll see if that holds. However, that could push him to a farewell nomination.
A Star is Born is an electrifying directorial debut by Bradley Cooper even if it’s somewhat flawed in its execution.
A Star is Born,Bradley Cooper‘s directorial debut, is the third remake of the 1937 film of the same name—versions were made in 1954 and 1976 with Judy Garland and Barbara Streisand, respectively. And it’s easy to see why it’s been adapted so many times. The story is truly timeless. However, for this version, Cooper updated the story to mostly success to comment on the modern era of stardom. And as a director, he is assured in style and commands the film visually, even when the story gets away from him.
A Star is Born opens with a first act that is nothing less than electrifying. We begin with rock n’ roll country star Jackson Maine (Cooper) as he plays in front of an eager crowd—the concert scenes were filmed in front of an actual audience at Coachella—riffing on his guitar with ease. Then we cut to Ally (LadyGaga), a waitress by day and performer at a drag bar by night—the queens (including Shangela and Willem Belli) were so impressed with her voice they allowed her to be a part of their show. Stripped down and de-glammed, Gaga maintains her pop star glow while hiding it under self-doubt. She’s quite good.
Eventually, she meets Jackson, hunting for a drink after his gig, in a classic meet cute. The chemistry between the pair is incredible. One of the great assets of having an actor turned director is the ability to understand how to get great performances out of their actors. Cooper does it throughout. Over one boozy and raucous night the pair essentially fall in love. The energy is kinetic. It’s perfectly paced switching effortlessly between high-energy and comedic scenes to softer introspective ones. A standout scene is one that takes place in front of a grocery store as Ally performs one of her songs for Jackson.
Soon after their night together, Jackson summons Ally to one of his concerts and perform the duet “Shallow” on stage. It’s a charged scene that’s stunning to watch and makes the case for Lady Gaga in the role. She’s magnetic and emotes best through song—she’s more rocky with dialogue. Still, it’s a great film debut performance that is certain to earn her some Oscar attention.
Lady Gaga and Anthony Ramos in A Star Is Born. Clay Enos / Warner Bros.
From there, the pair hops from place to place performing more and more songs and falling deeper and deeper in love. Soon, Rez (Rafi Gavron), a music producer takes notice of Ally and offers to help make her a star—and that he does. Soon she’s on the rise recording a full album—closer to Gaga’s mainstream pop that the country rock that we’ve heard in the movie so far—performing on SNL, and even being nominated for Grammys. All the while, Jackson’s star begins to fade as he slips deeper and deeper into drug and alcohol addiction.
Cooper has never turned in a more nuanced and emotionally grounded performance than this. Jackson’s deterioration is heartbreaking. However, the film itself doesn’t do the storyline justice. The pacing, which was such a strong suit during the first act, becomes the film’s enemy in its middle section. It feels as if there was a longer version of the movie that was hacked up to fit into an already robust 137 minute running time. The result is a film that starts and stops too much to connect with. However, digressions with Jackson’s brother Bobby (Sam Elliott) and friend Noodles (Dave Chappelle) are welcome digressions.
Thankfully, the final act finds its way back to the electrifying roots of the beginning and allows Cooper to turn in some of the best scenes his career. And stylistically he captures the wrought moments of Jackson’s addiction and recovery in increasingly interesting and cinematic ways. It all culminates in a final scene and shot that makes a great case for Lady Gaga as a movie star (and eventual Oscar nominee) as she performs the showstopping 11 o’clock number “I’ll Never Love Again”.
A Star is Born is best when it forgets what it’s trying to be about and is just about the relationship at its core. Nothing more. When it occupies that space—like in front of the grocery store, on stage, at the piano, in a bar—the movie soars. Cooper and Gaga make a stunning onscreen pair and the ensemble, particularly Anthony Ramos and Andrew Dice Clay as Ally’s friend and father respectively, really shine. Cooper seems to be following in the footsteps of fellow actor turned director Clint Eastwood—he’s worked with him on American Sniper and TheMule—and his talents as a director seem similar. Though it’s flawed, A Star is Born is still an exciting directorial debut for Cooper who is assured a long and healthy career in Hollywood.
