Best Actress is one of the most competitive categories at the 2019 Oscars as Glenn Close hopes to finally seal the deal.
Best Actress, unlike its Best Actor counterpart, is a little bit more clear in terms of who the top contenders are. And many of them follow Oscar history — young ingenues, overlooked veterans. However, it’s a long list of contenders. Here are our predictions for Best Actress at the 2019 Oscars.
On her 7th career nomination, Glenn Close should FINALLY win her much deserved Oscar for The Wife. The overdue veteran narrative is always a strong one and Close is the epitome of one. The one knock against her is that her film The Wife is not widely seen. Still, her narrative should be strong enough for a win.
Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Playing a queen often wins you an Oscar — Helen Mirren won for The Queen and Judi Dench won for Shakespeare in Love. However, Olivia Coleman’s performance as Queen Anne in Yorgos Lanthimos’ wonderfully weird The Favourite is not your typical performance.
However, after winning the Globe and giving an endearing speech her stock has certainly risen. If it wasn’t for Close, she’d be the clear… favorite.
Lady Gaga could receive her first Oscar nomination in Best Actress for A Star is Born.
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Although Cher and Barbara Streisand both won Oscars after successful careers as musicians — this video explains how Cher pulled off her win for Moonstruck— Lady Gaga has an uphill climb for her performance in A Star is Born.
After shockingly losing the Golden Globe to Glenn Close (see above), it’s clear that she’s not going to be as much of a force as we thought. Maybe her public persona as a pop star is hurting her. Either way, she’s definitely winning an Oscar this year for co-writing “Shallow”.
Dark Horse
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Alfonso Cuarón’s magnum opus Roma — in a career full of them including my personal favorite Children of Men — is going to be one of the rare foreign language films to break through in major categories. Despite that, the film’s lead Yalitza Aparicio is going to have a harder time making it into the category.
Foreign language performances rarely make it into the acting categories. And to make it even harder, she doesn’t speak English, which will make connecting with voters difficult — even though it really shouldn’t. That being said, she’s the heart of the film and could be swept along if the movie does well in nominations.
Long Shot
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Can You Ever Forgive Me? might have fallen out of the conversation for Best Picture, but one consistent throughout the season has been Melissa McCarthy in the lead role as Lee Israel.
It’s certainly a change up from her typical comedic performance, which might be to her advantage. However, because of the film’s waning buzz and the fact that her co-star Richard E. Grant has been singled out for praise, she’s on the bubble.
In an effort to make the Oscars cool again, The Academy made the Oscars deeply uncool
Even before the 94th Academy Awards telecast, people were already predicting it to be one of the worst Oscar telecasts in history. Those people were wrong… it was the worst Oscars telecast in history.
As rumors that ABC would pull the plug on the ceremony amid sagging ratings, The Academy tasked telecast producer Will Packer with finding a way to get people interested in the Oscars again. The tactics? Inviting TikTokers to the ceremony, introducing fan-voted categories, and, most egregiously, cutting eight categories from the live telecast in an effort to reduce the show’s running time. Hilariously, the ceremony is one of the longest in the past two decades. All the changes made it feel like the Oscars, an award meant to honor movies, hated movies.
Here’s my breakdown of the best moments, the worst moments, and yes, that moment.
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Highlights
The Speeches
Wow! Who would have thought that the speeches are the best part of an awards show? Who could have come up with such a concept!?
The first speech of the night was from Best Supporting Actress winner Ariana DeBose who won for her portrayal of Anita in West Side Story, a role that made Rita Moreno the first Puerto Rican Oscar winner in history. At the end of her speech, she alluded to being the first openly LGBTQ+ person to win an acting Oscar saying, “I promise you this, there is a place for us.” It was particularly poignant considering Disney, the studio behind the movie, has been embroiled in controversy over Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill.
Later in the night, Jessica Chastain similarly paid homage to the LGBTQ+ communityin her speech after winning Best Actress for playing gay icon Tammy Faye in The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Best Supporting Actor winner Troy Kotsur became the first deaf male actor to win an Oscar and the second deaf actor overall after his CODA co-star Marlee Matlin won in 1987. His touching speech gave tribute to the deaf community and the importance of family while last year’s Best Supporting Actress winner Yuh-jung Youn looked on like a proud mom.
Not only do these speeches create moments and make statements, but it also allows the show to have structure. With fewer speeches, the telecast was instead inundated with filler bits and “tributes” that felt nothing more than set dressing for what we really want to see: people winning Oscars.
The Performances (for the most part)
Beyoncé opened the ceremony with a gorgeously composed performance of her nominated song “Be Alive” from King Richard with a group of dancers clad in tennis ball orange dresses live from a Compton tennis court. It felt like it fit naturally in the structure of the show, as did the performances of the other nominated songs (Van Morrison’s “Down to Joy” from Belfast was the only nominee not to be performed).
One performance, however, did not land with me. Read on.
Liza with a Z
It’s a tradition for the Oscars to invite a screen legend to present the Oscar for Best Picture and this year may have been the most legendary. Oscar-winner Liza Minnelli and Oscar nominee Lady “I don’t consider myself an ethical person” Gaga jointly presented in one of the most genuinely touching moments of the ceremony.
When Minnelli had trouble opening the envelope, Lady Gaga whispered “I got you,” to which she replied, “I know.” Queens supporting queens.
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Lowlights
We have to talk about Bruno
In a head-scratching decision, the telecast featured a performance of “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from Encanto. The catch is it wasn’t nominated for Best Original Song. Another song from the movie was nominated. So why perform it? Because it was the most popular song from a movie in 2021. Including it felt strained and uncomfortable, especially with an inserted Megan Thee Stallion that replaced the song’s best part!
Three hosts. No jokes.
Can someone explain to me why Wanda Sykes or Regina Hall couldn’t just host alone? The writing at awards ceremonies is famously terrible, but this Oscars may have just set a new low with an uncomfortable thread about Regina Hall being single to a fully rude seat filler joke aimed at Kirsten Dunst. Sykes and Hall did the best they could with the material they were given. Amy Schumer, on the other hand, made me feel uncomfortable whenever she was on screen. A host is supposed to make you feel safe. Like a captain driving the ship. Instead, I was dreading their appearances.
Montage. Montage. Montage.
The Academy teased several tributes and cast reunions in an effort to pique interest in the ceremony. Those included a James Bond 60th Anniversary montage, a Pulp Fiction, White Men Can’t Jump, Juno, and The Godfather cast reunions. And one too many montages. The problem is that these packages felt, like the performance on “Bruno,” awkwardly muscled into a ceremony that already lacked focus.
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The downright absurd
No Runtime to Die
ABC mandated that the Oscars stay within their allotted three-hour time slot. The Academy’s solution? Cut eight categories from the main broadcast. The outcome? A ceremony longer than last year’s. What exactly was the point of cutting those categories if they were just going to fill the time with unnecessary bits, performances, and montages?
Twitter’s fan vote went to who?
In another attempt to pander to young people, The Academy instituted two fan-voted categories: Oscars Cheer Moment and Fan Favorite Movie. What they quickly learned is that Twitter is the pit of fan culture hell. Zack Snyder’s Justice League and Army of the Dead won both categories in a presentation that had me taking a bathroom break.
The Slap™️
No comment.
Final Thoughts
I love the Oscars. I loved the Oscars before I even fully formed my love for movies. Watching people being lauded for the craft, to receive validation that we so rarely get, was inspiring to me. This year’s ceremony was not the Oscars that comforted a shy closeted gay boy in New Jersey. Instead of seeing love and hope onstage, I saw greed. It broke my heart. I don’t know what the solution is. I just want my Oscars back.
? What did you think of this year’s ceremony? Let me know!
Twenty actors have been nominated for Oscars across four categories for their performances in last year’s movies. Here is my ranking.
After a particularly unpredictable Oscar season, we now have twenty actors nominated across four categories including seven previous winners and eight first-time nominees. I took on the monumental task of ranking all twenty performances from best to worst. Agree or disagree? Let me know!
20. Javier Bardem as Desi Arnaz in Being the Ricardos
Best Actor | Javier Bardem, who won an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for No Country for Old Men, isn’t bad in Being the Ricardos as he is woefully miscast.
19. J.K. Simmons as William Frawley in Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actor | J.K. Simmons, who won an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for Whiplash, has a couple of strong scenes with Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball that are about as emotional as the movie gets. However, his impact and screentime are limited. His co-star Nina Arianda deserved a nom.
18. Ciarán Hinds as Pop in Belfast
Best Supporting Actor | “Too long a sacrifice can make a stone of the heart.” Hinds does fine work as the “older man who delivers sage and witty advice,” but the role never elevates further than that.
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17. Will Smith as Richard Williams in King Richard
Best Actor | Will Smith, on his third Best Actor nomination, delivers the role of Serena and Venus Williams’ father with as much movie star gravitas as you would expect from him. However, his performance is safe and expected unlike his co-star further down on this list.
Will Smith is nominated for Best Actor for his role as Richard Williams in King Richard.
16. Dame Judi Dench as Granny in Belfast
Best Supporting Actress | After winning an Oscar for her 8-minute performance in Shakespeare in Love, Dame Judi Dench is up again for a similarly sharp-tongued role. Her emotional grandstanding speech to close at the movie got her the nomination, but the subtler work from co-star Catriona Balfe deserved her spot.
15. Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos
Best Actress | Nicole Kidman, already an Oscar winner in Best Actress for The Hours, fails to disappear into the role of Lucille Ball even if the work she does is admirable — particularly when showing Ball’s creative genius.
14. Benedict Cumberbatch as Phil Burbank in The Power of the Dog
Best Actor | One of the more controversial placements on this list — though from this point on every performance is good at the very least — Benedict Cumberbatch, on his second nomination, feels too practiced in a role as explosive as Phil Burbank. I was meant to fear him for some part of the movie, but his presence never loomed as large as his co-stars’.
13. Jesse Plemons as George Burbank in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor | “I just wanted to say how nice it is not to be alone.” Plemons has been doing consistently terrific work in film and television for years. And his slight but sensitive portrayal against some of the movie’s bigger performances is a gorgeous foil to what’s happening around him. Plus, his co-star, fellow nominee and wife Kirsten Dunst, had the sweetest reaction to his nomination.
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12. Aunjanue Ellis as Oracene “Brandy” Price in King Richard
Best Supporting Actress | Aunjanue Ellis has decades of incredible work spanning TV, film, and the stage, so to see her receive her first Oscar nomination is a delight. Her performance pours out with empathy. Not a moment feels less than genuine.
11. Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Actress | It’s a wonder that Jessica Chastain is only on her third nomination considering her body of work. And while The Eyes of Tammy Faye isn’t her best performance, her pure commitment to the role both physically and emotionally make it one to admire.
Jessica Chastain received her third Oscar nomination for her performance as Tammy Faye in The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Best Actor | With this 10th nomination, Denzel Washington has extended his record as the most-nominated black actor in Oscar history. I mean, it’s Denzel doing Shakespeare. Need I say more?
9. Kirsten Dunst as Rose Gordon in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress | The fact that this is Kirsten Dunst’s first nomination is maddening, but well-deserved for this role. She has to take her character on a full arc from beginning to end unlike the other character’s in this film and does so with sensitivity.
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8. Olivia Colman as Leda Caruso in The Lost Daughter
Best Actress | Olivia Colman can do no wrong. Even with a character as difficult to like, by design, as Leda, she is able to make her feel lived-in. That depth is what keeps you hooked into the narrative even when you can’t find someone to root for.
7. Jesse Buckley as Leda Caruso in The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actress | Speaking of a complex lived-in character, Jesse Buckley, who somehow feels overdue for an Oscar nomination despite being relatively new, also finds those depths in the younger version of Leda Caruso. With just fits and starts of scenes to play with, she gives us a complex vision and hard truth of motherhood.
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee as Peter Gordon in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor | Just like his character in The Power of the Dog, Kodi Smit-McPhee must play the long game with his performance dropping clues along the way. In the end, every action, movement, and line delivery makes sense with the character’s ultimate motives. His performance alone is reason enough to give Jane Campion the Oscar for Best Director. I’d also say Smit-McPhee deserves the Oscar if not for one of his competitors. More on that later.
5. Andrew Garfield as Jonathan Larson in tick, tick… BOOM!
Best Actor | Andrew Garfield performs the role of Jonathan Larson like he’s on a stage. Well, he’s literally on a stage for some parts of the movie, but it’s that type of big, play-to-the-back-row performance that we don’t see much anymore. However, the heightened over-stylization of his performance is grounded in a deep understanding of a character that he, even more than writer-director Lin Manuel-Miranda, understands the weaknesses of.
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4. Penélope Cruz as Janis Martínez Moreno in Parallel Mothers
Best Actress | The tone that Pedro Almodóvar strikes with his film Parallel Mothers is so distinct that it could only take an actress like Penélope Cruz to meet him exactly where he is. It’s no wonder she does her best work with him — her first Oscar nomination was for his film Volver. While the movie’s plot goes pure telenovela, both Almodóvar and Cruz have to find something authentic in Janis to deliver the film’s message. Not only does she succeed, she does so while being effortlessly entertaining and holding the screen like the star she is.
Ariana DeBose is nominated for Best Supporting Actress for her performance as Anita in West Side Story.
Best Supporting Actor | Acting is reacting, and first-time nominee Troy Kotsur’s “Oscar scene” in CODA is a masterclass. With no words (signed or otherwise) he goes on a full emotional journey with his daughter (portrayed by the equally great Emilia Jones) that has the hefty job of moving every one of our characters further along on their journey of growth. However, what has been underrated is the pure joy he brings to the role of Frank, a man in a world not made for him, but that he found love in every corner of.
Best Supporting Actress | To play a character as iconic (and Oscar-winning) as Anita in West Side Story takes nerve — and Ariana DeBose has the nerve. Rita Moreno, the original anita, plays the role with a fiesty energy that acts as a foil to the subdued energy of the central love story. DeBose’s version is just as bombastic, but with an even darker tinge to match the energy of the movie. While her signature number “America” is as impressive as ever, it’s the scenes of pure dramatic tension that set her apart.
Kristen Stewart received her first Oscar nomination for her portrayal of Diana, Princess of Wales in Spencer.
1. Kristen Stewart as Diana, Princess of Wales in Spencer
Best Actress | There’s a fine line between performing as a real-life person and impersonating them (see further down the list), and Kristen Stewart finds the exact avenue to evoke the spirit of Diana, Princess of Wales while making her completely singular — like a servant to the story director Pablo Larraín is trying to tell. Every movement, line reading, and facial expression is studied to the point that Stewart completely disappears into the role. Spencer is a difficult movie that treads a narrow path between genres, and Stewart is right there with it every step of the way.
Best Supporting Actor at the 2019 Oscars is stacked with industry veterans and newcomers looking for their shot at Oscar glory.
Best Supporting Actor seems to be the most locked acting categories as Mahershala Ali has swept every televised acting prize including the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, and Critics Choice. However, I think there is room for an upset.
Even though Green Book has been marred by controversy, the one person involved with the film that seems to have gotten out unscathed is Ali. After waltzing through the precursors, he is the clear favorite to win even though he won just two years ago for Moonlight in this category. Plus, it’s a place where voters who liked Green Book can honor it without any of the people involved in the controversies.
However, I think Ali winning so recently is going to hurt his chances more than people think. Whether people don’t vote for him because of it or they vote for someone else thinking he has this on lock, there might be a block of voters who go elsewhere.
Legendary veteran actor Sam Elliott got his first acting nomination in Best Supporting Actor for A Star is Born.
The smart money would be on Sam Elliott for his small, but impactful performance in A Star is Born. After snubs in Best Director and Best Film Editing, the film has been on the ropes for its Best Picture chances — it could go home with just one award for Best Original Song. Voters looking for an above-the-line place to honor could easily go to Elliott. He’s an industry legend on his first nomination and a win could be seen as a lifetime achievement award.
Sam Rockwell’s performance as George W. Bush is an impressive imitation in Viceand Adam Driver is BlacKkKlansman’s sole acting nomination. However, my money for an upset is on Richard E. Grant for Can You Every Forgive Me?.
He swept the critics awards and has launched a homegrown social media campaign that will charm the socks off just about anyone. Although his movie only received two other nominations — Best Actress for Melissa McCarthy and Best Adapted Screenplay — I could see there being passionate support for his performance.
He has the same industry veteran narrative as Elliott and has a good chance at upsetting Ali at the BAFTAs. If he does, the Oscar could be next.
Best Picture this year is as unpredictable as ever with four frontrunners and the possibility of a barrier-breaking superhero movie winning.
Best Picture is an odd category at the 2019 Oscars. What is making this year more unpredictable is almost the opposite of last year. Instead of there being multiple films with valid chances of winning, this year it’s hard to find a movie that doesn’t have something working against it.
Even though we’re less than a month away from the Oscars, Best Picture is still an undecided category — it’s easily the wild card of the night. While there are three clear top contenders, you can make an argument for any of the eight nominees.
The BAFTA Awards might shed some light on what film is the frontrunner, but based on the other precursors, they might just confuse us even more.
It’s rare for a movie to win without at least a nomination in one of these three categories — Film Editing, Directing, and at least one acting category. Only three movies this year got all three — BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, and Vice. If you throw in the SAG Award Best Ensemble stat — only twice has a movie won without a nomination there — then you narrow down to just BlacKkKlansman.
Despite being snubbed for Best Director, Bradley Cooper hopes to win Best Picture for A STAR IS BORN
It would make sense as a winner. Spike Lee — despite being the legend that he is — has never won a competitive Oscar — he’s won a lifetime achievement award. It’s also a social issues movie that tends to do well at the Oscars — and unlike its competitors, it’s an uncontroversial one. Most importantly, BlacKkKlansman hit every precursor award it’s needed.
However, it needs to log a precursor win — WGA is its last shot.
Even though Roma surprisingly missed a Film Editing nod, it is BlacKkKlansman’s biggest competition. Not only did it run the gamut of critics awards, but director Alfonso Cuarón has also swept the director awards and it stunned with a surprise Best Supporting Actress nomination for Marina de Tavira.
Contrary to popular belief, I think Roma is going to do better on the preferential ballot — I explain how Best Picture voting works here — than people think. First of all, the people that love the movie LOVE the movie. Second, I think people that didn’t connect with it still respect the craft, which will land it a lot of 3rd, 4th, and 5th place votes. Its biggest baggage is that it’s a Netflix movie. If it wins, it would be the first movie released on a streaming platform to ever win Best Picture.
BLACK PANTHER could become the first superhero movie to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Green Bookand Black Panther round out the competitors with the best shot to win. Green Book swept the Golden Globes and shockingly won the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Picture. This is notable because it’s the only precursor to also use a preferential ballot. But producers only make up a small part of the Academy and it’s been marred by tons of controversy. Still, it’s the type of light social justice movie that the Oscars tend to go for — think Crash or Driving Miss Daisy.
If Black Panther wins, it’ll break a lot of records. The first superhero movie to win Best Picture, one of the few movies to win without a Film Editing or Director nod, one of the few movies to not be nominated by the DGA to win. The list goes on and on. But I think it has a strong shot at doing well on the preferential ballot. I think the industry admires the movie and it has a strong underdog narrative. It could upset.
Best Actor is a three-way race between Bradley Cooper, Rami Malek, and Christian Bale at the 2019 Oscars.
Best Actor still doesn’t have a clear single frontrunner. Critics season was ruled by Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, but he missed nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, which doesn’t bode well for his campaign. At the top of the list are three actors with very legitimate shots to win. Here are the contenders:
Rami Malek’s performance as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsodyhas been almost universally praised despite the film’s mostly negative reviews and the controversy around its director. However, Bohemian Rhapsody is clearly loved by the industry than critics.
Rami Malek managed to win the Golden Globe over Bradley Cooper — who was in contention for A Star is Born — despite a very close race. However, I’m not sure the Oscar voting body will embrace his performance the same way.
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
The Oscars love to nominate Bradley Cooper — he was nominated three years in a row for Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. However, he’s yet to win. I think that’s going to help him a lot. Especially with Malek going in as a first-time nominee and his other competitor Christian Bale (Vice) already a winner.
The other thing that will help him is the general love for A Star is Born. As the director, screenwriter, and producer, they’ll want to give him some love. And it feels like they might do it in Best Actor.
Rami Malek’s electric performance in Bohemian Rhapsodycould land him his first Oscar nomination in Best Actor.
Christian Bale, Vice
On paper, Christian Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney in Viceis one that wins Best Actor. It’s a transformative performance of a real-life figure — in the usual fashion, Bale put on extra weight for the role — which has won everyone from Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) to last year’s winner Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) the Oscar.
However, unlike those two actors, Bale is playing a villain and an incredibly unlikeable figure. Granted, the Adam McKay film tries to portray Cheney in a negative light. There’s also the issue of Bale being a relatively recent winner and lacking the narrative for a second win.
On the Bubble
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Viggo Mortensen would have had the perfect overlooked veteran narrative — like Glenn Close in Best Actress — to win him the Oscar for Green Book. However, there are two things preventing him. First, the movie is divisive, particularly about his character. Second, Mortensen has made some… controversial comments.
The movie’s popularity and industry goodwill will push him to a nomination, but a win is off the table.
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
BlacKkKlansmanhas been one of the few consistencies throughout awards season, so it’s only right that its lead actor is nominated. I was skeptical of John David Washington’s — son of Denzel — chances despite his Golden Globe nomination — there are effectively 10 slots at the Globes. Then he got a SAG nomination. I think that sealed it for him.
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Ethan Hawke essentially ruled the critics’ awards for his performance in First Reformed. However, his snub at the Globes and SAG along with the movie’s lack of buzz — even a screenplay nomination seems out of reach — are going to make it hard for him to get a nomination.
That being said, there’s still a chance. The Academy might like the movie more than the guilds and Globes and A24 has proven itself an award juggernaut.
Other Contenders
Ryan Gosling, First Man
First Man has pretty much fallen out of the awards conversation — except for Claire Foy in Best Supporting Actress. However, Ryan Gosling still has an inkling of a shot for his portrayal of Neil Armstrong.
Though it’s a quiet performance — the Academy tends to like his louder performances like Half Nelson and La La Land — it’s certainly impactful. If First Man has a resurgence he can slip in.
Ryan Gosling could receive his third Best Actor nomination for First Man.
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Willem Dafoe got thisclose to winning his first Oscar for The Florida Project but ultimately lost to Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. And while on paper his performance as Vincent Van Gogh seems like an Oscar-friendly role, the movie is definitely artsier than your typical biopic.
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
Allegedly, The Old Man & the Gun is screen legend Robert Redford’s final film performance. We’ll see if that holds. However, that could push him to a farewell nomination.
Cher pulled off an Oscar win for Best Actress over Glenn Close in 1988 for Moonstruck. This video explains how it happened.
Thirty years before Lady Gaga became an Oscar frontrunner for A Star is Born, Cher took home the Oscar for Best Actress for her performance in 1987 romantic comedy Moonstruck.
But how did a musician turned actress take home Oscar gold for her film debut? Well, this video by Be Kind Rewind answers that question.
Cher was up against a murderer’s row of veteran actresses including Oscar favorite Meryl Streep for Ironweed, Sally Kirkland for Anna, Holly Hunter for Broadcast News, and most famously, Glenn Close for Fatal Attraction.
Close was on her fourth nomination and highly favored to win—she’d go on to be nominated twice more without any wins (though that might change this year). However, a mix of “publicity, name recognition, and an actor’s relationship to the Academy” ended up swaying the race in her favor.
This race is particularly important considering Lady Gaga, another pop star turned actress, is in contention for her performance in A Star is Born. Can she pull it off like Cher did in 1988? Watch the video above and then head over to our predictions for Best Actress!
Sally Hawkins, Meryl Streep, and Saoirse Ronan lead the packed field for Best Actress
Best Actress started out as one of the most competitive categories at the Oscars this year, but quickly it looks like we’ve found our five nominees. Of all the categories this year, this is the one I’m most confident in predicting — at least the nominations. As for the winner, it’s going to be one of the hardest to predict. Especially considering that of the five expected nominees four of them appear in a Best Picture frontrunner. A feat that hasn’t happened since 2013 and gets even rarer the further you go back. If it does indeed happen, it would be a great way to cap off a year that has seen the most support for female empowerment in recent memory.
Still, the Academy is the Academy and that means that the winner of this category is going to most likely be a young, up and coming actress. That bodes well for Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), whose performance in Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut has earned her wide acclaim and won her several critic’s awards along the way. It also doesn’t hurt that her film is one of the most acclaimed of the year and is looking more and more like a viable candidate to win Best Picture. However, it’s not your typical Oscar role. It isn’t the watershed performance that Brie Larson or Jennifer Lawrence won for nor the towering one of Meryl Streep or Sandra Bullock. But what she does have going for her is momentum. Between her and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) the other young and up and coming actress in contention, Ronan is the one that seems to deserve it more at this point in her career. At just 23, she’s looking at her third nomination, is one of the most respected actresses of her age range, and feels overdue despite her young age. If I had to pick a definitive frontrunner, it is her.
But there are also other performances by veterans that in any other year would beget a win. The most likely of those would be Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water). Despite a silent performance and unconventional film, especially for the Oscars, she quickly emerged as a frontrunner early in the season. And it’s not surprising. Though I was more tepid on the film than most, I was enamored by her performance. It’s easily the most overtly emotional of the contenders. However, it does seem a bit too far outside the Academy’s taste to actually win. Though with the changing demographics, who knows what their taste actually is. What she does have going for her is that she hasn’t won like the two other veterans in the category.
Anyone who has seen Steven Spielberg’s latest film agrees on one thing. Meryl Streep (The Post) delivers one of the best performances of her career. While I can’t speak to that yet, from what I know about the role, it’s the kind of towering performance that often wins in this category. Plus, it’s a film that empowers its female protagonist, which will certainly play well in our current climate. However, there are a few things that will get in the way of another Oscar on her mantle. First, and probably most importantly, she won in 2011 for The Iron Lady. Though there have been cases with less time between wins, it’s pretty rare to win another trophy so close to another. It usually takes the perfect conditions to win again. In the case of Hillary Swank’s win for Million Dollar Baby, which came just 5 years after her win for Boys Don’t Cry, she didn’t have much feasible competition and her film was a late-breaking juggernaut. The same goes for Jodie Foster. I don’t think Streep has the right conditions to win, plus there are certainly other alternatives to go with. Especially Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).
Like Streep, her role is about female empowerment and the movie gives her the room to explore that in a larger than life way. If there is a towering performance this year, it’s this one. However, the film has received significant backlash recently, which has diminished the acclaim it received initially. Unless there is a backlash to the backlash, I don’t see an easy path to a win.
Though I feel pretty confident that these five women are going to be the Best Actress nominees this year. There is always room for a spoiler to surprise in the category. The most vulnerable actress in a contention is probably Robbie, whose film is the most polarizing of the field and will have the least nominations on Oscar nominations morning. If she is pushed out, then Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game) is most likely to take her spot. She’s an Oscar favorite, landed a Globe nomination (Robbie and Ronan competed in the comedy category), and appears in a film that has received critical acclaim. However, there’s always room for another respected industry veteran like Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) or out of left field choice like Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) to surprise.
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul Gal Gadot, Wonder Woman Diane Kruger, In the Fade Carey Mulligan, Mudbound Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
Best Actor has quickly become one of the hardest categories to predict at the Oscars with several contenders and no clear frontrunner. Though, it looks like Timothée Chalamet or Gary Oldman could rise to the top.
If there’s a category without a frontrunner, it’s Best Actor. Early in the season, Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) seemed to be a lock to win the category. However, as critics prizes started rolling out, it became clear that he wasn’t going to be a critics darling like some past winners. But that’s not always a requirement. Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Redmayne basically didn’t win anything until the major awards. It’s hard to picture Oldman winning without at least some critical support. Although, part of the reason he became a frontrunner was because the role is classic Oscar bait — grandstanding speeches, a revered historical figure. That might give room for a less conventional Oscar performance by Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) to sneak in. Unlike Oldman, Chalamet has been the consensus critical pick.
Chalamet is arguably the breakout star of 2017, but the Oscars aren’t kind to younger actors in Best Actor. At just the age of 21, he’d be the youngest nominee in the category since 1939. The most recent nominee to be in his 20s was Heath Ledger who was 25 when he was nominated for Brokeback Mountain. Before that, Adrian Brody was 29 when he won for The Pianist, the youngest winner in this category. His age is going to be his biggest hurdle to a win.
There are a few veterans in contention as well. Any of combination of them could be nominated. As of right now, I think the safest bet would be Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread). The movie, which was arguably the last major contender to premiere, was even higher profile than most of his films because it is supposedly his final film performance. I think it’ll be hard for the Academy to pass up nominating him for that fact alone. It only makes it easier that he gives yet another winning performance. However, he missed out on a Screen Actors Guild nomination to Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.) depending on how you look at it, but it’s not uncommon for one nominee from that ceremony to drop out of the Oscar shortlist.
Washington still has a chance of being nominated, but he’ll have to contend with Tom Hanks (The Post). Hanks was shockingly snubbed by SAG as well, but The Post also screened for voters later, which could account for that fact. Still, much of the praise for the film lands with Meryl Streep, who is a top contender for Best Actress. However, Hanks has been snubbed for his past three performances — two of them were shocking snubs. I don’t know whether that fact will help or hurt his campaign, but with two strong candidates also on the bubble, I could see him being snubbed once more.
Those final two candidates will appeal to the hipper set of Academy voters — most likely the newest members. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) is perhaps the more surprising of the two. Get Out was always a strong contender in a lot of categories, but Best Actor wasn’t one of them. Still, he surprised with a SAG nomination and could stand as a representative for the ensemble. Plus, one of the most iconic images from this past year in movies has to be him petrified in a leather chair. That will stick with voters. But what has also been having a lot of cultural resonance is James Franco (The Disaster Artist) playing one of the most infamous filmmakers of all time.
Though Best Actor started as one of the less competitive categories this year, it’s quickly evolved to being the most unpredictable. In addition to the 7 contenders I’ve mentioned so far, there are still a few other that have a feasible shot at being nominated. The most likely of which is Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger), who could get a late-breaking push. Right now, it’s a coin flip.
The Best Picture race this year is one of the most unpredictable with no clear frontrunner emerging. Though, Get Out is definitely going to put a fight for the title.
Oscar voting begins this week, which means we finally know exactly what the voters might be considering as they cast their ballots. However, Best Picture remains the most murky category. There are still 4 or 5 contenders that have a clear path to winning. This year, more than any, the preferential ballot is going to make it extremely difficult to figure out what film is going to win. Unlike the past couple years, though ending in upsets, we knew generally what the top two films were going to be.
But to quickly refresh, here’s how the preferential ballot works. Instead of voting for their favorite film, voters are asked to rank all nine nominees in order of preference — their first place film should be there favorite and their last place film should be their least favorite. In the first round of voting, each ballot’s first place vote is counted. If no film gets 50% of the first place votes, the film with the least first place votes is eliminated and their second place film becomes their first place vote. So let’s say Darkest Hour received the least first place votes in the first round and is eliminated. If the voter with Darkest Hour in first place had Phantom Thread in second place, then Phantom Thread would get another vote added to its total.
This means that the Best Picture winner will be a film all the voters generally like — a consensus pick. However, with so many frontrunners, voting might last 5 or 6, and even, 7 rounds before coming up with a winner. So, below I break down the four strong contenders for Best Picture and the case for and against each of them winning.
Let’s start with the film that based on precursors looks like a Best Picture winner. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won Best Picture or the Best Picture equivalent at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs, received seven nominations including the rare double acting nomination in Supporting Actor, and is on track to win two acting awards. On paper, it seems like the strongest Best Picture contender even without a Best Director nomination, which certainly hurt its chances a lot. However, if any film is going to be hurt by the preferential ballot, it’s Three Billboards. Though it has its fervent fans, it also has its fervent detractors who point to the movie’s more problematic elements. Films like that tend to do well in precursors because they are voted on with a popular vote. However, with as many people ranking the film as their first and second place picks as much as their last pick, any support is essentially cancelled out.
On the other hand, The Shape of Water has both the chance to be helped and hurt by the preferential ballot. A lot of Oscar voters are going to put it towards the top of their ballot and a lot are going to put it towards the bottom. However, I think there’s also going to be a sizable amount of voters that put it in the middle, as well. Industry opinions on the movie range from love to appreciation to confusion. Having the breadth of placements can help if voting goes a lot of rounds, but hurts if it only goes 3 or 4. To win Best Picture this year, a film needs to consistently show up on the top half of ballots and almost no where on the lower parts of ballots.
I think two films are going to do that, which means that they’re most likely our two legitimate Best Picture frontrunners. Get Out is emerging as a popular choice among pundits since it has wide support, is well-viewed by voters and audiences, and a film that it seems everyone generally likes. However, the older sect of the Academy, according to some Oscar experts, have viewed that film as good, but not Best Picture worthy. Whether that means they’re going to rank it low on their ballot isn’t completely certain. That’s why I think that the dark horse contender this year is Dunkirk. Not only is it one of the most well-received movies of the year, it appeals to both the artier crowd and the older Academy voters who appreciate a war epic. Plus, it’s going to be a widely seen movie, which means, even if a voter didn’t see every movie nominated and only rank 5, Dunkirk has a good chance of being one of those 5. There’s a really strong chance that it upsets come Oscar night. However, if it does win, it’ll break a lot of long held beliefs among Oscar pundits. It doesn’t have a screenplay nomination, acting nomination, and it wasn’t nominated at the SAG awards. Those are a lot of statistics that would have fall for it to win. However, we’ve seen those statistics fail more recently. Anything can happen.
So, who is going to win? At this point, I think this is Get Out’s race to lose. Universal has been putting a lot of weight behind it, it’s beloved by many and liked by most, and it should do well on the preferential ballot. In a time where Moonlight is the reigning Best Picture champ, anything is possible. Get Out may be an improbable winner, but it looks like it will go all the way.
Will Win: Get Out Could Win: Dunkirk or The Shape of Water Should Win: I always think this is a hard question to answer because I could just say my favorite movie of 2017, Call Me By Your Name, but I think Best Picture is a great way to represent the year in movies. In that case, Lady Bird is not only fantastic, it feels like a movie that is in and of our time. The same could be said for Get Out.
Best Supporting Actor typically goes to an overdue industry veteran, which in this case is looking to be Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project.
Best Supporting Actor is a packed category at the Oscars this year and filled with industry favorite actors that all have narratives to break into the race. However, it seems like Willam Dafoe (The Florida Project) is going to be the one to beat. His subtle but heartfelt performance has won over raves from critics that astonish over the fact that he’s only been nominated twice at the Oscars in this category — Platoon and Shadow of the Vampire. And he’s the perfect fit for a winner of this category, which usually goes to a hard-working veteran character actor. He’s the one to beat.
Another veteran character actor in the running is Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). Though Frances McDormand is getting a lot of praise for her steely performance, Rockwell has become a standout from the cast. His bigoted cop role is the kind of villain that is often nominated in Best Supporting Actor, but more importantly, his character has an arc. And that’s one of redemption — though, the controversy around that redemption may work against him. Rockwell is well-regarded in the industry and a nomination could be seen as a career achievement award. Plus, his surprise win at the Golden Globes will certainly help raise his profile.
There are two supporting actors from Call Me By Your Name in contention, which is always a difficult call to make. It’s rare to get more than one nomination in an acting category at the Oscars and it hasn’t happened in this category since 1991 when Bugsy got two noms. However, the more likely candidate from Call Me By Your Name is Armie Hammer. He nabbed a Golden Globe nomination and has more screen time than his co-star Michael Stuhlbarg, who has arguably received more acclaim — mostly for his ending monologue — but has less screen time. It is troublesome that neither actor was nominated at the Golden Globes — neither was the cast. I think Hammer has enough buzz to push him through to an Oscar nomination, but the prospects of having both actors nominated is pretty much gone.
Best Supporting Actress is probably the most competitive acting category at the Oscars, even though Allison Janney has emerged as the frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars this year is a battle of the TV titans. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), an Emmy winner for Roseanne, and Allison Janney (I, Tonya), an Emmy winner for The West Wing and Mom, have been going head to head all season. Metcalf essentially swept the critics’ awards, but once the televised awards came, Janney started winning. However, I, Tonya has been a divisive movie. The fact that it couldn’t crack Best Picture or Best Orignal Screenplay is evidence of that. On the other hand, Lady Bird is a Best Picture frontrunner, and can even pull off a win.
However, Janney has the more traditional scene-stealing Oscar role in the vein of Mo’nique in Precious or Melissa Leo in The Fighter. Though, Metcalf certainly has winners who have had performances similar to hers — Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. While Janney’s performance is bigger, Metcalf has her moments and comes off more empathetic. I think it’s more of a tossup than people think.
There isn’t much room for an upset, but if there was one it could come from one of two contenders. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) has been the most consistent nominee along with Janney and Metcalf. Though she hasn’t won anything, she would be a way to honor Mudbound, which was certainly popular based on nominations, and she was also nominated for Best Original Song, which gives her added visibility. However, that could also hurt her chances since voters have another category to honor her.
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) was one of the most surprising nominations in any category. And Phantom Thread overperformed, including nominations in Best Director and Best Picture. She could pull a Marcia Gay Harden when she won Best Supporting Actress for Pollack without any major nominations.
At this point, I’d still give Janney the edge. She won all the right awards, is beloved in the industry, and is campaigning. However, I, Tonya is divisive and her character is truly an antagonist with no redeeming qualities. Even Mo’nique had a redemption scene. Plus, Lady Bird is going to be a popular movie at the Oscars. It’s going to be a lot closer than most people think.
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