Despite the mess that is the 2019 Oscars, it is refreshing to have a season that feels unpredictable. Best Picture is still up in the air as is Best Supporting Actress while there is room for upsets in nearly every category. As a lifelong Oscar fan, it’s always more excited to not know who’s going to win come Sunday night.
Will Win:BlacKkKlansman Could Win:Roma or Green Book Should Win:Roma or Black Panther
I’m taking a big swing in this category. While BlacKkKlansman hasn’t won a major prize, it was nominated every where it needed to be. People love and respect Spike Lee. I think this is going to do really well on the preferential ballot. As long as Roma or Green Book don’t win on a first round then I think this is your Best Picture winner.
Best Actress
Olivia Coleman as Queen Anne in THE FAVOURITE
The nominees:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife Could Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite Should Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Glenn Close will finally end her 37-year losing streak when she wins her first Oscar for The Wife. There is the *tiniest* chance that BAFTA winner Olivia Coleman wins for her performance Queen Ann in The Favourite.
Best Actor
Rami Malek in BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
The nominees:
Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Could win: Christian Bale, Vice Should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Although Christian Bale won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards for his performance as Dick Cheney in Vice, I think the real challenger to clear frontrunner Rami Malek is Bradley Cooper. For better or worse, he’s been in the news a lot and if voters want to award A Star is Born outside of Best Original Song, this would be the place to do it.
Best Actor is a three-way race between Bradley Cooper, Rami Malek, and Christian Bale at the 2019 Oscars.
Best Actor still doesn’t have a clear single frontrunner. Critics season was ruled by Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, but he missed nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, which doesn’t bode well for his campaign. At the top of the list are three actors with very legitimate shots to win. Here are the contenders:
Rami Malek’s performance as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsodyhas been almost universally praised despite the film’s mostly negative reviews and the controversy around its director. However, Bohemian Rhapsody is clearly loved by the industry than critics.
Rami Malek managed to win the Golden Globe over Bradley Cooper — who was in contention for A Star is Born — despite a very close race. However, I’m not sure the Oscar voting body will embrace his performance the same way.
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
The Oscars love to nominate Bradley Cooper — he was nominated three years in a row for Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. However, he’s yet to win. I think that’s going to help him a lot. Especially with Malek going in as a first-time nominee and his other competitor Christian Bale (Vice) already a winner.
The other thing that will help him is the general love for A Star is Born. As the director, screenwriter, and producer, they’ll want to give him some love. And it feels like they might do it in Best Actor.
Rami Malek’s electric performance in Bohemian Rhapsodycould land him his first Oscar nomination in Best Actor.
Christian Bale, Vice
On paper, Christian Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney in Viceis one that wins Best Actor. It’s a transformative performance of a real-life figure — in the usual fashion, Bale put on extra weight for the role — which has won everyone from Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) to last year’s winner Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) the Oscar.
However, unlike those two actors, Bale is playing a villain and an incredibly unlikeable figure. Granted, the Adam McKay film tries to portray Cheney in a negative light. There’s also the issue of Bale being a relatively recent winner and lacking the narrative for a second win.
On the Bubble
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Viggo Mortensen would have had the perfect overlooked veteran narrative — like Glenn Close in Best Actress — to win him the Oscar for Green Book. However, there are two things preventing him. First, the movie is divisive, particularly about his character. Second, Mortensen has made some… controversial comments.
The movie’s popularity and industry goodwill will push him to a nomination, but a win is off the table.
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
BlacKkKlansmanhas been one of the few consistencies throughout awards season, so it’s only right that its lead actor is nominated. I was skeptical of John David Washington’s — son of Denzel — chances despite his Golden Globe nomination — there are effectively 10 slots at the Globes. Then he got a SAG nomination. I think that sealed it for him.
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Ethan Hawke essentially ruled the critics’ awards for his performance in First Reformed. However, his snub at the Globes and SAG along with the movie’s lack of buzz — even a screenplay nomination seems out of reach — are going to make it hard for him to get a nomination.
That being said, there’s still a chance. The Academy might like the movie more than the guilds and Globes and A24 has proven itself an award juggernaut.
Other Contenders
Ryan Gosling, First Man
First Man has pretty much fallen out of the awards conversation — except for Claire Foy in Best Supporting Actress. However, Ryan Gosling still has an inkling of a shot for his portrayal of Neil Armstrong.
Though it’s a quiet performance — the Academy tends to like his louder performances like Half Nelson and La La Land — it’s certainly impactful. If First Man has a resurgence he can slip in.
Ryan Gosling could receive his third Best Actor nomination for First Man.
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Willem Dafoe got thisclose to winning his first Oscar for The Florida Project but ultimately lost to Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. And while on paper his performance as Vincent Van Gogh seems like an Oscar-friendly role, the movie is definitely artsier than your typical biopic.
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
Allegedly, The Old Man & the Gun is screen legend Robert Redford’s final film performance. We’ll see if that holds. However, that could push him to a farewell nomination.
Bohemian Rhapsody doesn’t do much to break the mold of the typical biopic, but it boasts a breathtaking performance from Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury.
Bohemian Rhapsody isn’t about the creation of Freddie Mercury. Yes, the movie starts with Mercury as a baggage handler before joining a band that would ultimately become Queen. However, the movie still doesn’t tell us where that famous—and infamous—persona came from. That’s because Freddie Mercury was never created. He just existed. Though the film tries to explore Mercury’s struggle with his identity by introducing us to his family and their own struggle to connect with Freddie, any introspection is ultimately put aside in favor of hitting various plot points.
Even then, those plot points like the creation of the eponymous “Bohemian Rhapsody” and the band’s famous Live Aid performance in 1985 are captured with uproarious energy and performed impeccably by Rami Malek whose portrayal of the rocker is breathtaking. In particular, Malek captures the physicality of Mercury in performance with precision and commands the frame—it’s useful considering he’s in every shot. However, this isn’t just the story of Mercury, it also concerns the people around him during his meteoric rise.
In particular, the film tracks his relationship and marriage to Mary Austin (Lucy Boynton). Through her, we investigate Freddie’s loneliness and sexuality. In one scene he comes out to her as bisexual, to which she responds that he is just gay—it feels a bit like bi erasure, especially since his true sexuality was never known. However, their scenes always felt the most genuine. Against the glitzy energetic patina of the Queen scenes, these “domestic” scenes feel a lot more genuine, albeit still an arm’s length away like most biopics.
L-R: Gwilym Lee (Brian May), Rami Malek (Freddie Mercury), and Joe Mazzello (John Deacon) star in Twentieth Century Fox’s BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY. Photo Credit: Courtesy Twentieth Century Fox.
The other person that Freddie has much one on one time is his personal manager and lover Paul Prenter (Allen Leech). Contrary to early reports, Freddie’s sexuality is a main throughline in the film and drives his internal struggle about identity. Leech does well with what he is given—he’s a talented actor best known for his role in Downton Abbey—but the character’s arc feels choppy and again feels like it’s more beholden to the plot than any character development.
What would have been more interesting—and something we get a small taste of—is the dynamic between the members of the band—Brian May (Gwilym Lee), Roger Taylor (Ben Hardy), and John Deacon (Joseph Mazello). Like most “getting the band together” movies, of which Bohemian Rhapsody certainly pulls from, there is that moment where the band breaks up or has a falling out. Of course, in this story, it’s based off a real moment. However, the change from friends trying to make it in the industry to an egotistical frontman versus his bandmates is sudden and pulls out the emotional weight behind the finale.
I don’t want to sound overly negative. Bohemian Rhapsody is well-crafted and exhilarating at times. It doesn’t do much to break the mold of a typical biopic, but thanks to Malek’s performance and the fact that Freddie Mercury is a fascinating subject for a film, it is at least entertaining to watch. The story of Mercury and Queen feels like the stuff of legend. Bohemian Rhapsody does a little to humanize it. But what it also does is remind us how larger-than-life Queen really was. Every time we get to another “how the song was made” scene—there are more than a few—it’s a reminder of another hit that is still in the cultural zeitgeist. For that, Bohemian Rhapsody is worth a watch.
Bohemian Rhapsody will be released in theaters on November 2nd, 2018.
