Category: Oscars

La La Land seems invincible in Best Picture. But I can see an upset coming from Moonlight or even Hidden Figures.

Since the film premiered at Venice in September, La La Land has been the frontrunner for Best Picture. It really has won everything it needs to win — Golden Globe, BAFTA, the Guilds — and has ratcheted up incredible buzz and box office. Not only that, it has gone above and beyond. It broke the record for the most wins at the Golden Globes, tied the record for most nominations at the Oscars, and if it wins, it will be the highest-grossing Best Picture winner since Slumdog Millionaire. However, I think it isn’t infallible at the Oscar like a lot of people think. You can read my full analysis about it here. In short, though, I think that the backlash that many other pundits are discounting is actually a lot more deep seeded. La La Land is a good movie, a great movie even. However, because of the incredible response from awards, the question of whether or not it’s overrated is becoming legitimate. If all the ingredients mix together properly, I think Moonlight can break its way in.



  But first, let's talk about the other contenders. If we're going off the rule that you need to at least have a nomination for directing and editing — which isn't a perfect rule, but it is certainly strong — then only Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge are viable alternatives. Arrival has two things going against it. First, there is a huge genre bias in Best Picture. Sci-Fi movies have long been ignored and have yet to win in this category. Second, movies with a female lead also have a hard time winning, unfortunately. That coupled with the fact that it missed out in two categories it seemed like a lock in — Visual Effects and Actress for Amy Adams — it looks like it is knocked out of contention. Hacksaw Ridge, on the other hand, has a few things going for it. It's a war picture, which is very popular in this category. It nabbed all the key nominations including one for its lead Andrew Garfield. Lastly, it's going to be popular among the Academy's older and white demographic, which is easily its largest. However, despite receiving a shocking Best Director nomination, I think the Academy is going to be slower to forgive Mel Gibson than we think. Hell or High Water only received four nominations and missed out on director, so it isn't going to be a threat. Especially when the more popular Hacksaw Ridge is pulling votes from its demographic. Fences similarly only has four nominations and is likely to win Supporting Actress and, possibly, Actor. So, I don't think that voters are going to be in a rush to vote for it here. Manchester by the Sea seemed like a contender at the beginning of the season, but after a weak phase 2 campaign and waning support for its most-likely winner, Casey Affleck, it looks like they're going to have to settle for Original Screenplay. That leaves two more contenders. Both Hidden Figures and Lion seem like unlikely Best Picture adversaries, but they both have strong narratives. Lion is awards juggernaut The Weinstein Company's only horse in the race. Despite not having a lot of the markers for a Best Picture winner, Weinstein's narrative of immigration and acceptance is going to play very well in our current political environment. Same goes for Hidden Figures. Led by three black women, the film is diverse, talks about inclusiveness, and won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble. However, what truly makes it a threat is its high box office and broad appeal. Still, the only nominee that I think has a legitmate shot is Moonlight.    If La La Land is the frontrunner, then Moonlight is the runner-up/underdog. As with many other years, the underdog narrative is proven to be a powerful one — The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar, Spotlight vs. The Revenant. There are some films that it seems everyone likes. Moonlight is one of those films. With the intense backlash La La Land is receiving, it's easier to see more voters putting it lower on their ballot. For a refresher, this article explains how voting in Best Picture works. I can see a lot of voters putting Moonlight at number 2 or 3 on their ballots. That's the sweet spot you want to be in. So, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Moonlight upsets and wins. Will that happen? Probably not. Is it a possibility? Definitely. Check out the rest of our 2017 Oscar Predictions! Will Win: Moonlight Could Win: La La Land Dark Horse: Hidden Figures Should Win: Moonlight or La La Land or Arrival or Hidden Figures (it's been a great year for film)  

Emma Stone (La La Land) should easily win Best Actress at the Oscars. However, there are two contenders that could take her down.

Best Actress is looking more and more like it’s going to be going to Emma Stone (La La Land) this year. It would be her first Oscar after being nominated in 2015 for Birdman. It makes sense that she would win now. She’s an industry golden child on the way up, she has a role that allows her to emote, and she’s young. That’s the key in this category, they love awarding young actresses. However, there is one person that I can actually see beating her. Though it’s a long shot, it’s possible.

But let's start at the bottom first. This is a really competitive year for this category, I can make an argument for any one of these women. So, it's hard to pick an order for the likeliness of winning. My choice for the last place is probably going to surprise a lot of you. Natalie Portman (Jackie) seemed to be the only actress who could stand in Stone's way. She even upset her at the Critics Choice Awards. However, the support for both her and her movie have slowly dwindled away. Plus, Jackie is a very divisive movie. It feels like too much art for some people. That also goes for Portman's performance. On top of that, she won an Oscar only seven years ago, which is fresh enough in voters' minds to not think she needs another so soon. [caption id="attachment_9872" align="alignleft" width="400"] Best Actress Nominee Emma Stone in La La Land[/caption] After her would be Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). Although she got in on the strength of her Golden Globes speech, I don't think it will be enough to get her a win. She too recently won and there won't be a rush to reward her. My third place finisher is certainly the dark horse contender as well. Ruth Negga (Loving) gives a really powerful performance in the film. She's a relative newcomer and this is her first nomination. She also plays a real person and is very early in her career. She has all the hallmarks of a winner in this category. However, even further than that, she has two other things going for her. First, Best Actress winners rarely have their film nominated for Best Picture, though she's one of four in this category to have that happen, hers is the only film to not have any major momentum or wins during the season. Lastly, in a year where diversity is the buzz word, she would be another place to show the progress the Academy has made. However, as much as I truly loved her performance, it's my favorite of the year, it's very quiet. Usually, winners in this category are big and bombastic with a lot of emotion. [caption id="attachment_9805" align="alignright" width="400"] Best Actress nominee Ruth Negga in Loving [/caption] The nominee with the best shot at upsetting Stone, though, is Isabelle Huppert (Elle). After shockingly upsetting Portman at the Globes, she moved into the forefront of the conversation. Though she missed out at SAG, which is a prerequisite, there is a history of Globe winners going on to win at the Oscars after missing out on SAG. Plus, her movie was snubbed in Foreign Language film – it didn't make the shortlist – so it's likely that voters that liked that film will want to reward it somehow. The two issues she has are that it is very rare for a foreign language actor to win in any category. Second, the film is very divisive. I think Stone has this sewn up. There's nothing indicating that she will miss out on this award. But, weirder things have happened at the Oscars. If history holds, her winning could signal that La La Land won't win Best Picture. They're just stats though. We'll just have to see. Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions! Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land Could Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle Dark Horse: Ruth Negga, Loving Should Win: Ruth Negga, Loving

The race for Adapted Screenplay is a low-key competitive category. However, I think it’s also prime for an upset. Moonlight has to watch its back.

Best Adapted Screenplay is a seemingly low-key category that is probably going to go the way we expect. However, I actually think it’s among the most competitive of the night. I could make an argument for every nominee.

The clear frontrunner here is Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney for Moonlight. In addition to being a Best Picture frontrunner, they also won the BAFTA Scripter Award, which has predicted the winner of this category for the past six years. Because of the possibility of a La La Land sweep, this may be the only category to award director Barry Jenkins for his work. I think that they are the safe frontrunner, but arguments could easily be made for all the other contenders in the category. It’s almost impossible to do a proper ranking.

The nominee that I think is most likely to upset, though, is Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi for Hidden Figures. The movie is a crowd pleaser and popular with the industry and voters, which is especially evident after their SAG Best Ensemble upset. If voters choose to spread the wealth, this is the one category that Hidden Figures is nominated in that they could vote for it. It’s unlikely to win either of its other nominations — Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress. If you’re looking for an upset, it’s this.

Before nominations came out and the season was officially in full swing, it looked like the momentum was going for Eric Heisserer for Arrival. This was, of course, before two bigger contenders came out — Hidden Figures and one I will mention shortly. While the act of adapting the short story The Story of Your Life to this complex sci-fi drama was an incredible feat, its genius might have gone over the heads of the voters the same way the movie might have. However, if voters like Arrival enough, there is certainly a chance that it could upset.

The other nominee I alluded to is Luke Davies for Lion. It looks like Lion is one of those mid-success nominees that skirts by the Oscars with no wins. Think Brooklyn from last year. However, I think it has a strong in this category after winning at the BAFTAs. The only reason I think that it’s less likely to upset than Hidden Figures is because I think it has a chance at upsetting in Cinematography and Supporting Actor, which might make a win in this category less urgent.

The wild card is really August Wilson for Fences. His posthumous nomination is a rarity, plus his name is being constantly thrown around by Denzel Washington and Viola Davis, which is powerful, especially when they’re said during an acceptance speech. However, plays rarely win in this category. Whether it’s because the act of adapting from stage to screen isn’t as impressive, I don’t know, but it’s a strong statistic to overcome.

If I had to put money on it, Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney have this locked up. But there’s also this sneaking suspicion that this is a prime category for an upset. There are a lot of strong nominees. I’m going to say Moonlight takes it. But watch out for Hidden Figures or Lion for the upset.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCarney, Moonlight
Could Win: Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Dark Horse: Luke Davies, Lion
Should Win: Eric Heisserer, Arrival

 

Zootopia is the comfortable frontrunner in this category, however, Kubo and the Two Strings could pull off a surprise upset

While Best Animated Feature sounds like an open and shut category, there is actually room for an upset. But let’s start at the bottom first. I think the only film that has absolutely zero chance of winning The Red Turtle. I simply think it’s a movie that not enough people have seen. Plus, with a few exceptions, movies with large box office hulls and buzz with this category. So, The Red Turtle probably has to settle for a nomination in a competitive year.




After that, every nominee has some path to winning. Following their monster success with Frozen, which won Best Original Song and Best Animated Feature and becoming the highest-grossing movie in history, Disney had a more modest hit with Moana. Though it received stronger critical notices – it outscored Frozen on both Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic – I think it simply got stuck with a more competitive year in animation. However, animated movies with nominations in other categories tend to win, so that gives it an outside shot.

The surprising and unlikely dark horse of this category is My Life As A Zucchini made headlines when it ended up making it to the short list for the Best Foreign Language category. While it didn’t get nominated, that shows that people have watched the movie and are paying attention. I think it could be a surprising twist in the category.

The biggest contender to this year’s frontrunner is Kubo and the Two Strings (check out our review here!). It isn’t the hit that the other contenders in this category are, but it has its rabid fans. Plus, it is the first movie to ever be nominated for both Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects. It is also only the second animated movie to be nominated for the latter category. It also got strong guild support with an unprecedented nomination at the Costume Designers Guild Awards and a win at the Visual Effects Society Awards. I think it might have the support to unseat the frontrunner.

Zootopia (check out our review here!) has been the consistent frontrunner this entire year and took the Producers Guild Award and Golden Globe, which often signals success in this category. Its timely story and insane box office make it a prime candidate in this category. Plus, despite premiering more than a year ago, it feels like its still being talked about. However, it has one startling statistic against it. Only one movie that premiered before May has won this category. That movie was Rango, a notoriously weak year for the category. Whether that is a statistic or a coincidence, I don’t know. But an upset in this category would set a precedent.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Dark Horse: My Life As A Zucchini
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Film Editing is a very important category at the Oscars. You need to be at least nominated in the category to win. Last year’s Best Picture winner “Birdman” was an anomalous case since it was edited to look as if it was filmed in one take. So ignoring that year, the last time the Best Picture winner wasn’t nominated in this category was 1981 when “Ordinary People” won. However, that usually doesn’t go for the winner. Best Picture and Best Film Editing match up about half the time. Usually, the winner tends to be the film with the most editing like “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “The Social Network,” and last year’s winner “Whiplash.”

However, another statistic that some pundits often don’t consider is that the winner often takes at least one other tech category with it. Since 1990, only two movies won Best Film Editing without taking at least one other tech award: “Traffic” (2001) and “Unforgiven” (1992). “The Big Short,” which arguably has the most editing, isn’t even nominated in another tech category. This doesn’t take them out of the conversation, but I think it’s more likely that one of the two tech heavy films are going to win.

“The Revenant” is poised to win at least two and maybe three over-the-line categories, Best Director and Best Actor, and is the frontrunner in at least two tech categories, Best Cinematography and either of the sound categories. However, it lost out to “Mad Max: Fury Road” at Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and most importantly the ACE Eddies. I think that makes it the solid frontrunner that will make it all the way.

The only other scenario I could see playing out is that “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” goes on a streak of their technical awards and takes this category along with them.

Check out all our 2016 Oscar predictions here!

*My “if I had an Oscar ballot” pick

Rankings:
1. Mad Max: Fury Road*
2. The Revenant
3. The Big Short
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5. Spotlight

Should’ve Been Nominated: “Steve Jobs,” “The Martian,” “Room”

For the last ten years, Best Original Screenplay has gone to a Best Picture nominee. The last time it didn’t was in 2005 when “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” won. If this trend continues, then unfortunately “Ex Machina,” my second favorite movie of 2015, is out of the running. “Straight Outta Compton” would also be knocked out, but I’ll make a case for it a but further down. Another statistic that will knock out a contender is “Inside Out” since no animated film as ever won.

If “Spotlight” is the Best Picture winner like we think it is, then it needs to take at least one other award. Best Original Screenplay looks to be that award. It is also the quiet indie movie that tends to win here like “Juno,” “Little Miss Sunshine,” and “Her.”

The other Best Picture nominee in the category is “Bridge of Spies.” While it’s written by Academy favorites Joel and Ethan Coen, it doesn’t have the wider support like “Spotlight” has.

The one question mark in the race is “Straight Outta Compton” because of two factors: (1) it was probably either the number nine or ten Best Picture nominee; (2) it is really the only film that focuses on people of color nominated. I think the first factor shows that it has a base of support and the second will help get it votes from those who believe that the Oscars need to have diversity in it. Lastly, it is a well written movie and sometimes that’s enough.

I think that “Spotlight” is solidly in the front, however I think that “Straight Outta Compton” has a genuine shot at taking the win here.

 

Rankings:
1. “Spotlight”
2. “Straight Outta Compton”
3. “Inside Out”
4. “Ex Machina”*
5. “Bridge of Spies”

Should’ve Been Nominated: “Anamolisa,” “Spy,” “Sicario”

Best Director has quickly become the category where the visionary filmmaker is honored. Ang Lee won for “Life of Pi” in 2013, Alfonso Cuarón for “Gravity” in 2014, and Alejandro G. Iñarritu for “Birdman” in 2015 (his film was the most visionary of the group, at least). However, this year we have the debacle of having two directors from visual effects heavy, high production films: George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”) and Alejandro G. Iñarritu (“The Revenant”).

Miller and his film nearly dominated all the critics awards leading up to the guilds, where the film stumbled. Iñarritu won the Globe, however there is a lot of precedent against him rather than for him. Only twice in the history of the Oscars has a director won Best Director consecutively — John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz. This does not lend well to an Iñarritu win.

If you take stats into consideration, the correlation between Best Picture and Best Director is an important one. Since the year 2000, the winner of Best Picture didn’t match up with Best Director only five times:

2001: Steven Soderbergh (“Traffic”) won director; “Gladiator” won picture
2003: Roman Polanski (“The Pianist”) won director; “Chicago” won picture
2006: Ang Lee (“Brokeback Mountain”) won director; “Crash” won picture
2013: Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”) won director; “Argo” won picture
2014: Alfonso Cuarón (“Gravity”) won director; “12 Years a Slave” won picture

So if the trend holds, it’s likely that the Best Picture winner also wins Best Director. We’re predicting “Spotlight” to take Best Picture, which gives Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”) the edge.

I think that we’re going to see another split year. If “Spotlight” takes Picture, what takes Director?

There is too much history going against Iñarritu. Even worse, I think voters are aware of the record and don’t want to see him join the likes of John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz. In that case, George Miller wins the award. However, the DGA is going to be extremely important here. I can foresee Adam McKay (“The Big Short”) upsetting there. Either way, whoever wins DGA will probably win the Oscar.

Check out all our 2016 Oscar predictions here!

*My “if I had an Oscar ballot” pick

Rankings:
1. George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)*
2. Alejandro G. Iñarritu (“The Revenant”)
3.Adam McKay (“The Big Short”)
4. Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”)
5. Lenny Abrahamson (“Room”)

Should’ve been nominated: Alex Garland (“Ex Machina”), Andrew Haigh (“45 Years”), & Denis Villeneuve (“Sicario”)

This is perhaps the most competitive race for Best Picture this decade, maybe even this century. Never has the field been so divided. It seems that every precursor indicator contradicts another and just when we think momentum is building, it is quickly taken away.

“Spotlight” maintained the frontrunner status throughout the critics awards even thought it ended up splitting wins up pretty evenly with “Mad Max: Fury Road.” However, Mad Max feels too genre to be a legitimate Best Picture contender, which is why most pundits were calling the race. Then, in a wild twist, Best Supporting Actor locks Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton missed nominations at both the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards. Many pundits saw it as a sign of weakness. This narrative was further bolstered by snubs at the ACE Eddy Awards and for Best Director at the BAFTAs.

In the wake of Spotlight’s demise, “The Revenant” picked up steam by winning Best Actor, and shockingly, Best Picture and Best Director at the Golden Globes. This narrative was supported by it wildly over performing in Oscar nominations, receiving a leading 12. Pundits began to split both for “Spotlight” and “The Revenant.”

Then, in what could be the biggest twist of the season, “The Big Short” won the Producer’s Guild Award, which tends to be the best indicator for the Oscars.

So, who wins? I honestly don’t know. What I can say with some certainty is that “Brooklyn,” “The Martian,” and “Bridge of Spies” will not be the winner. However, a case could be made for “Room,” which I’ll discuss in a separate post.

No matter who wins, some trend or record will be broken. If “The Revenant” wins, it would be the first time since “Million Dollar Baby” won in 2004 that the Best Picture winner was released in December. Also, it would be the first winner since “Braveheart” in 19— to not be nominated for the Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards.

If “The Big Short” wins, it would be a rare comedy that wins, and one of the even fewer winner to win with only five total nominations. In addition, it was a December release.

Lastly, “Spotlight” has not yet won a major precursor awards (Golden Globe or PGA). While it should win at the SAG awards, “The Big Short” could certainly upset. For its chances to stay alive, it needs to win Best Ensemble.

So, back to my initial question. Who wins?

I think that this is one of the few years that there isn’t a definitive answer. Even when it was “12 Years a Slave” vs. “Gravity” vs. “American Hustle” in 2014, it was still clear that “12 Years” was going to go away with the win.

Because of its early frontrunner status and a win at the SAG awards, I think “Spotlight” is going to take the win. However, “The Big Short” is a very close second.

Check out all our 2016 Oscar predictions here!

*My “if I had an Oscar ballot” pick

Rankings:
1.Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. The Revenant
4. Mad Max: Fury Road*
5. Room
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

Should have been nominated: Ex Machina, Sicario, & Anamolisa

The last time the winner of Best Picture wasn’t at least nominated for Best Film Editing was 1980 when Ordinary People won the top prize. That’s a long time. To make the trend even stronger, in 2005 Best Picture frontrunner Brokeback Mountain lost out to Crash. Guess what film wasn’t nominated for Best Film Editing. Boyhood had a fight on it’s hand when Birdman was in the race. However, with the film out of the running, it looks like Boyhood should win this pretty easily.

The first of two films that are going to give Boyhood some chase is The Grand Budapest Hotel. Wes Anderson’s caper surprised in this category. However, with its lead in the nominations and win on the comedy side at the ACE Eddie Awards (Boyhood took the drama award), it’s going to be the closest to upsetting Boyhood.

The other scenario I can see playing out is Whiplash surprising. This category usually goes with a Best Picture frontrunner, if not the winner. However, Whiplash wins here in the event that the best edited film wins. Many pundits predicted Captain Phillips last year because it was the most clearly edited film. However, Whiplash is not only the most clearly edited, it also is the most beautifully stitched together.

Boyhood is still solidly out front to win. I mean, they had to edit 12 years worth of material. However, it’s not the absolute lock we thought it was.

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Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Whiplash
Should have been nominated: For me, the best editing is the one that you can’t see, so A Most Violent Year would have been a worthy addition.

What’s better than the same 5 guys being nominated for SAG, Golden Globes, and Oscars?

Maybe the same guy winning.

J.K. Simmons has swept his way through the awards season on the coattails of his now infamous character of Fletcher, the abusive jazz director that demands excellence and a commitment to honoring the greats. There’s almost no chance of him losing now that the nominees have been finalized, and his race is one to take to the bank.

That being said, the flashy Simmons performance has a couple downsides if you’re willing to pick a monstrous upset. He’s not a big-name actor, and Whiplash was not the sort of film to galvanize the Oscar campaign troops, despite its solid critical response. An actor like Ethan Hawke, let’s say, could try to shake and smile his way to a win behind the powerful performance in most-likely Best Picture winner Boyhood. Ed Norton is a small threat as well.

Yet, don’t be too smart for your own good. Lock in Simmons.

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Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Could Win: Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Should Win: Simmons…He was bad-ass.
Should’ve Been Nominated: Chris Pine- Into the Woods. Pine’s scene of singing “Agony” was one of my favorites of the year. Replace Duvall with him…Also, Andy Serkis…Apes….? Anyone?