The Golden Globes are the first major stop on the way to the Oscars. While the winner here aren’t exactly predictive, many consider speeches their Oscar auditions. Here are our predictions for the 2017 Golden Globes!
Check out our 2017 Oscar Predictions!
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Nominees:
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Moonlight
Dark Horse (possible upset winner): Hacksaw Ridge
The overall consensus among pundits is that Manchester by the Sea will win this by a hair. However, Moonlight has been on a run this season. Manchester by the Sea just doesn’t have the same buzz that Moonlight has. So, I’m going to give it the edge. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Manchester take it. But watch out for Hacksaw Ridge. It has its fans. Plus, anything is possible with Mel Gibson scoring a surprise director nomination.
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: N/A
Should Win: La La Land
Dark Horse: Deadpool
The Oscar frontrunner La La Land should easily win this category. The Globes award buzz and whenever they actually have a musical in this category, they pounce (Les Miserables, Sweeny Todd, Dreamgirls.) However – and call me crazy – I think Deadpool has a legitimate run at this category. While it certainly has its detractors, its fans are rabid. If somehow there’s a crazy upset, that’s the film that would pull it off.
Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Nominees:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Will Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Should Win: Joel Edgerton, Loving
Dark Horse: Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
I think the is a closer race than people think. The Oscar frontrunner Casey Affleck is the obvious choice. However, the Golden Globes love Denzel Washington. He even received the Cecil B. DeMille award last year. He could easily snatch this from under Affleck. With two movies out, Andrew Garfield can also make a late surge.
Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Nominees:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Jackie
Could Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Should Win: Ruth Negga, Loving
Dark Horse: Amy Adams, Arrival
I’m so torn between in this category. Natalie Portman is an Oscar frontrunner, which usually automatically gives you the edge. However, Isabelle Huppert also made a run through the critic’s awards. In addition, she is a foreign actress (remember the HFPA is made up of foreign journalists) and had two high-profile movies this year. I’m going to give it to Portman right now, but I can easily see Huppert winning. Watch out for Golden Globe darling Amy Adams to upset here as well.
Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
Will Win: Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
Could Win: Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Should Win: Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Dark Horse: Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Ryan vs. Ryan. This is a closer race than I think people make it out to be. While Ryan Gosling is the most likely of the bunch to reap an Oscar nomination, it isn’t a straight comedic performance. Plus, he’s not a frontrunner to win the Oscar, which is usually the way the Globes go. That’s why I think Ryan Reynolds has a clear shot at the win. His performance is broad comedy. So, for drama sake, I’m gonna say Reynolds takes it by a hair. But my advice is that if you hear the name Ryan being called, wait for the presenter to finish before standing up.
Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Could Win: Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Should Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Dark Horse: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Without her biggest Oscar rival Natalie Portman in the way, Emma Stone has a clear run at this category. In addition to being in the most likely winner for Best Motion Picture, she has yet to win, which the Globes love. But favorite Meryl Streep, who has 7 Globes and is the Cecille B. DeMille winner this year has a shot. However, most likely the Globes would want to spread the love.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Could Win: Dev Patel, Lion
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Dark Horse: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
The Golden Globes are often where the contender with the momentum from the critic’s awards can slip up. Think Lupita N’yongo a few years ago. However, I think Mahershala Ali should be safe because a consistent number two competitor hasn’t come up. It could possibly be Jeff Bridges, but I actually think Dev Patel has more appeal for this group. They love awarding young actor who have earned their due. Plus, with foreign appeal and the Weinstein company behind him, he has a shot.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Could Win: N/A
Should Win: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Dark Horse: Nicole Kidman, Lion
Viola Davis would have had to do something pretty terrible to the HFPA to lose this category. Even then, she’d probably still win. There is one scenerio I can see Nicole Kidman winning in, which would be the Weinstein Company going on a run with Lion and shockingly upset Davis.
Best Director
Nominees:
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Could Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Should Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land or Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Dark Horse: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Screenplay
Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Should Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Dark Horse: Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia
Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Moana
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Dark Horse: My Life as a Zucchini
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.