2016 Emmy Predictions: Comedy Series

Newcomers will define the Emmy race for Comedy Series

Comedy Series feels a lot more open than it actually is. While two of last year's nominees, Louie and Parks and Recreation, are ineligible this year, the other five are returning. However, I think there is room for a lot of movement in the category especially with this new golden age of comedy we seem to be in.

Last year's winner Veep is locked to return. Despite a slow start to the season, it eventually picked back up to its peak quality. However, a win might be a bit harder to come by. When a show wins later in its run, it's rare to see it go on a winning streak like shows that win in their first season. For example, Sex and the City and the city won for season three but didn't win again. Will & Grace won for season two and never won again. Everybody Loves Raymond won for their seventh season, lost the next season, then won for their final season. The Office won for season two, but never won again. Seinfeld won for season four and never won again.

Compare that to Fraiser, 30 Rock, and Modern Family, which all won for their first seasons and went on to go on a winning streak. The first and last of which hold the record for the most wins in this category.

Now, I may be looking too far into this, but I really think there is a pattern here. The reason series win so late in their runs is because they deserve a win for that specific season. Sometimes there's also the sense that the Emmys already gave them their due after they had to wait.

If Veep doesn't take it, then I think it's going to be one of two series that does. The first is Black-ish as I mentioned in my predictions for Drama Series, it's risky to predict a series that hasn't been nominated before this high on your predictions, but I think Black-ish is in a unique position. First, it's a series that features an all minority cast. In this year where diversity has been at the top of discussion that matters. Second, it has had two extremely strong and timely episodes that will be rallied behind in the both the writing and directing categories. Third, with Big Bang Theory snubbed last year multi-cam shows no longer have a representative in the category, blackish could fill that spot. Lastly, Anthony Anderson received a nomination last year. That means that the show is in discussion.

I think in writing this I've convinced myself that they could actually win. Well, let's move on.

The second series that I think could beat Veep is Transparent. After a huge nominations haul last year and two major wins for lead actor and writing, they are in the perfect spot to launch into a series win. However, nominations will be very telling here. If they maintain or gain nominations, then I think they are going to be a threat. If they drop anywhere they should have easily gotten in, then they're vulnerable.

The next four contenders all have strengths and vulnerabilities. Five-time (bleh) winner Modern Family seems to have one more year in them. After being dropped down to only three major nominations, the show has lost a lot of steam. I really think that there could be a huge shock and they are snubbed. Some pundits are even predicting that already. However, I think they will have one last year left before finally bowing out of the race.

After them a few streaming shows will be competing with an HBO show for the last few spots. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt had a huge nominations year last year, but after its premiere this year it feels like all the buzz fell away. Same goes for Master of None. However, I think both should be safely in because of the names behind them and, for the latter specifically, the strong critical acclaim.

That leaves one last spot. Silicon Valley has proven to be a consistent contender. Despite their success, they haven't been able to break into the acting races, which is often a prerequisite to winning a series award. They are the most vulnerable in my opinion including Unbreakable.

But I think Hulu's Casual is in a great place to sneak in. It has a strong name behind it in Jason Reitman and has received strong reviews. Its biggest drawback is that it's on an untested network. While that was the argument we used for Amazon last year, the series didn't have the same cultural impact that Transparent had.

If I had to pick, my head would go with Silicon Valley for the last spot. But my gut is telling me that Casual is going to. For the sake of a gutsy pick I'm going with the latter.

Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

Black-ish***
Casual
Master of None
Modern Family
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep

***Predicted winner