Refreshingly, Lead Actress in a Drama Series is the more competitive of the lead categories on the drama side. However, there doesn’t seem to be much movement from last year’s group. Reigning champ Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder”) is sure to return along with last year’s near winner Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”).
After them, Robin Wright (“House of Cards”) will return and could actually win it all this year if she selects the right episode (she’s had a problem with that thus far). “Chapter 49” shows Claire at her most vulnerable and gives her some incredible scenes and a great closing speech that could put her over the edge.
As the “Homeland” Renaissance continues, Claire Danes is assured to return especially after the strong year they had at the Emmys last year.
After these four, the category gets a little more confusing. Tatiana Maslany (“Orphan Black”) finally reaped a nomination last year after two years of being snubbed. I could see her being a one-and-done nominee, but I can also see a scenario where she becomes a perennial nominee in the category. I think she still has some residual support left that’ll help her sneak in, but there is a chance she is snubbed.
The last spot is a little trickier. The smart money would be on two-time winner in this category Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife”) returning, especially since this is the show’s last year. However, she has been on shaky ground in this category. She was nominated three years in a row (winning once), then snubbed, then returned and won, and then was snubbed again. Will she really return for an average season of the show? I don’t think she will.
Most people would predict Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey”) to return for the show’s final season, but I think that Keri Russell (“The Americans”) will finally get an overdue nomination in the category after three years of snubs. The show was finally nominated in its first major category last year (in writing), which could open the floodgates for more above the line categories (a la “Friday Night Lights”).
Dockery, Kerry Washington (“Scandal”), and Eva Green (“Penny Dreadful”) (mostly wishful thinking) have chances to return as well.
Check out our 2016 Emmy Predictions!
Rankings
- Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
- Taraji P Henson, “Empire”
- Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
- Claire Danes, “Homeland”
- Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”
- Keri Russell, “The Americans”
——- - Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
- Eva Green, “Penny Dreadful”
- Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”
- Kerry Washington, “Scandal”
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.