For the last ten years, Best Original Screenplay has gone to a Best Picture nominee. The last time it didn’t was in 2005 when “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” won. If this trend continues, then unfortunately “Ex Machina,” my second 
favorite movie of 2015, is out of the running. “Straight Outta Compton” would also be knocked out, but I’ll make a case for it a but further down. Another statistic that will knock out a contender is “Inside Out” since no animated film as ever won.
If “Spotlight” is the Best Picture winner like we think it is, then it needs to take at least one other award. Best Original Screenplay looks to be that award. It is also the quiet indie movie that tends to win here like “Juno,” “Little Miss Sunshine,” and “Her.”
The other Best Picture nominee in the category is “Bridge of Spies.” While it’s written by Academy favorites Joel and Ethan Coen, it doesn’t have the wider support like “Spotlight” has.
The one question mark in the race is “Straight Outta Compton” because of two factors: (1) it was probably either the number nine or ten Best Picture nominee; (2) it is really the only film that focuses on people of color nominated. I think the first factor shows that it has a base of support and the second will help get it votes from those who believe that the Oscars need to have 
diversity in it. Lastly, it is a well written movie and sometimes that’s enough.
I think that “Spotlight” is solidly in the front, however I think that “Straight Outta Compton” has a genuine shot at taking the win here.
Rankings:
1. “Spotlight”
2. “Straight Outta Compton”
3. “Inside Out”
4. “Ex Machina”*
5. “Bridge of Spies”
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Anamolisa,” “Spy,” “Sicario”
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.