2016 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This is perhaps the most competitive race for Best Picture this decade, maybe even this century. Never has the field been so divided. It seems that every precursor indicator contradicts another and just when we think momentum is building, it is quickly taken away.

“Spotlight” maintained the frontrunner status throughout the critics awards even thought it ended up splitting wins up pretty evenly with “Mad Max: Fury Road.” However, Mad Max feels too genre to be a legitimate Best Picture contender, which is why most pundits were calling the race. Then, in a wild twist, Best Supporting Actor locks Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton missed nominations at both the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards. Many pundits saw it as a sign of weakness. This narrative was further bolstered by snubs at the ACE Eddy Awards and for Best Director at the BAFTAs.

In the wake of Spotlight's demise, “The Revenant” picked up steam by winning Best Actor, and shockingly, Best Picture and Best Director at the Golden Globes. This narrative was supported by it wildly over performing in Oscar nominations, receiving a leading 12. Pundits began to split both for “Spotlight” and “The Revenant.”

Then, in what could be the biggest twist of the season, “The Big Short” won the Producer's Guild Award, which tends to be the best indicator for the Oscars.

So, who wins? I honestly don't know. What I can say with some certainty is that “Brooklyn,” “The Martian,” and “Bridge of Spies” will not be the winner. However, a case could be made for “Room,” which I'll discuss in a separate post.

No matter who wins, some trend or record will be broken. If “The Revenant” wins, it would be the first time since “Million Dollar Baby” won in 2004 that the Best Picture winner was released in December. Also, it would be the first winner since “Braveheart” in 19— to not be nominated for the Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards.

If “The Big Short” wins, it would be a rare comedy that wins, and one of the even fewer winner to win with only five total nominations. In addition, it was a December release.

Lastly, “Spotlight” has not yet won a major precursor awards (Golden Globe or PGA). While it should win at the SAG awards, “The Big Short” could certainly upset. For its chances to stay alive, it needs to win Best Ensemble.

So, back to my initial question. Who wins?

I think that this is one of the few years that there isn't a definitive answer. Even when it was “12 Years a Slave” vs. “Gravity” vs. “American Hustle” in 2014, it was still clear that “12 Years” was going to go away with the win.

Because of its early frontrunner status and a win at the SAG awards, I think “Spotlight” is going to take the win. However, “The Big Short” is a very close second.

Check out all our 2016 Oscar predictions here!

*My “if I had an Oscar ballot” pick

Rankings:
1.Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. The Revenant
4. Mad Max: Fury Road*
5. Room
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

Should have been nominated: Ex Machina, Sicario, & Anamolisa