Emma Stone (La La Land) should easily win Best Actress at the Oscars. However, there are two contenders that could take her down.
Best Actress is looking more and more like it’s going to be going to Emma Stone (La La Land) this year. It would be her first Oscar after being nominated in 2015 for Birdman. It makes sense that she would win now. She’s an industry golden child on the way up, she has a role that allows her to emote, and she’s young. That’s the key in this category, they love awarding young actresses. However, there is one person that I can actually see beating her. Though it’s a long shot, it’s possible.
But let’s start at the bottom first. This is a really competitive year for this category, I can make an argument for any one of these women. So, it’s hard to pick an order for the likeliness of winning. My choice for the last place is probably going to surprise a lot of you. Natalie Portman (Jackie) seemed to be the only actress who could stand in Stone’s way. She even upset her at the Critics Choice Awards. However, the support for both her and her movie have slowly dwindled away. Plus, Jackie is a very divisive movie. It feels like too much art for some people. That also goes for Portman’s performance. On top of that, she won an Oscar only seven years ago, which is fresh enough in voters’ minds to not think she needs another so soon.
After her would be Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). Although she got in on the strength of her Golden Globes speech, I don’t think it will be enough to get her a win. She too recently won and there won’t be a rush to reward her.
My third place finisher is certainly the dark horse contender as well. Ruth Negga (Loving) gives a really powerful performance in the film. She’s a relative newcomer and this is her first nomination. She also plays a real person and is very early in her career. She has all the hallmarks of a winner in this category. However, even further than that, she has two other things going for her. First, Best Actress winners rarely have their film nominated for Best Picture, though she’s one of four in this category to have that happen, hers is the only film to not have any major momentum or wins during the season. Lastly, in a year where diversity is the buzz word, she would be another place to show the progress the Academy has made. However, as much as I truly loved her performance, it’s my favorite of the year, it’s very quiet. Usually, winners in this category are big and bombastic with a lot of emotion.
The nominee with the best shot at upsetting Stone, though, is Isabelle Huppert (Elle). After shockingly upsetting Portman at the Globes, she moved into the forefront of the conversation. Though she missed out at SAG, which is a prerequisite, there is a history of Globe winners going on to win at the Oscars after missing out on SAG. Plus, her movie was snubbed in Foreign Language film – it didn’t make the shortlist – so it’s likely that voters that liked that film will want to reward it somehow. The two issues she has are that it is very rare for a foreign language actor to win in any category. Second, the film is very divisive.
I think Stone has this sewn up. There’s nothing indicating that she will miss out on this award. But, weirder things have happened at the Oscars. If history holds, her winning could signal that La La Land won’t win Best Picture. They’re just stats though. We’ll just have to see.
Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Could Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Dark Horse: Ruth Negga, Loving
Should Win: Ruth Negga, Loving
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.